ATL: IRMA - Models

[ROCK]

HWRF still NW of 06Z

06Z - 17.85N 61.1W (930mb)
12Z - 18.15N 61.6W (925mb)


Aside to Rock:

Run the 06Z IR4 simulated off HWRF-P as it finally finished. Dynomat in the house.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=600

Yep or nitrate which is banned but interesting to read about. Total collapse of the core on approach..eh that is not even a remote possibility...)

[johngaltfla]

First post of the thread updated with most recent GFS and Euro runs.

Unfortunately, that solution seems reasonable. GFS/Euro seem to be latching on the high pressure regressing a bit 5 days out. Still not a good scenario for Florida, but the models are starting to get a tad more consistent on this solution.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro init:

[Steve]

NAVGEM has a Cat 3 952mb system hitting around Tampa Bay via the western Florida Keys at 144 hours. That's valid Sunday 8am EDT. That seems a little fast to come up and under in 6 days to me. I could be wrong. It's booking it though because by 168 it's in around Columbus, GA in WC Georgia. By 174 it's almost to Chattanooga, TN still showing 977mb.

Here's near landfall Sarasota/Tampa 144 hours:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=144

[MacTavish]

Im not familiar with the HMON but it also shifted north on the 12z. Approaches south florida 872mb 159kt

[Blinhart]

12Z HWRF landfall Cuba in the exact same position as 06Z:

And if she goes straight over Cuba into the Caribbean it would only lose slight intensity but restrengthen once back over water.

[ConvergenceZone]

If there's any ray of hope, it's that Irma is forecast to move much much faster than Harvey. Heck, if you look at that CMC model loop, it looks like it only takes a day and 1/2 to go up the entire East Coast Seaboard. That's quick! Which means that wind as opposed to flooding would be the main issue

[perk]

Interesting 12Z GFS - Irma hits SE FL next Sunday, while 94L develops into a hurricane and threatens SE FL the following Sunday. I'm sure that is what will happen...

wxman57 are you sold on the models 6 days out.

[ROCK]

NAVGEM has a Cat 3 952mb system hitting around Tampa Bay via the western Florida Keys at 144 hours. That's valid Sunday 8am EDT. That seems a little fast to come up and under in 6 days to me. I could be wrong. It's booking it though because by 168 it's in around Columbus, GA in WC Georgia. By 174 it's almost to Chattanooga, TN still showing 977mb.

Here's near landfall Sarasota/Tampa 144 hours:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=144

Tampa would be toast if that played out. They missed Charles by a hundred plus miles or so. Not this run..

[Steve]

12Z HWRF landfall Cuba in the exact same position as 06Z:

Hey Gator, it ends up more than a degree off though at 117 hours almost to the end of the run. It hits Cuba again, but it's:

06Z - 21.15N 78.25W 952mb
12Z - 21.85N 78.9W 949mb

[Frank P]

HWRF at H123 kissing the south coast of Cuba with almost half of the eye in the Caribbean.. At 126 hugging the south coast of Cuba moving west

[Steve]

HWRF at H123 kissing the south coast of Cuba with almost half of the eye in the Caribbean..

Yeah. I'm waiting for that 126 to finish. Looks like it's going to be around .8 farther North and .8 farther west than the 06z run. So faster for sure.

[Frank P]

H126 hugging the south coast of Cuba moving west Steve

[forecasterjack]

12Z ECMWF is running! Get it in full resolution for free: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/623-w-130-n/relative-humidity-700mb/20170904-2100z.html that's 700mb RH, you can see all pressure level data plus other parameters such as PWAT, simulated reflectivity, and more via menus to the left of the image. You can also create custom domains. Click image to zoom in or click near edge to pan. Enjoy! 

[latitude_20]

Is there any chance this will clip the northeastern Yucatan?

[ronjon]

Irma at 22.1N-80.7W at 126 hr from 12z HWRF. Well past the longitude of Miami. Heading NW last three hours of run. I don't think the west coast of Florida out of the woods yet.

[Evil Jeremy]

Is there any chance this will clip the northeastern Yucatan?

Hasn't been in the realm of the discussion. At the moment, the models don't see this going further west than Florida.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF 48 hours:

[Aric Dunn]

Euro seems south already.. direct hit on the NE islands..