ATL: IRMA - Models

[Blown Away]

HP seems tad weaker and trough tad stronger... It's subtle differences

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GFS Ensembles continue to light up South Florida like a Christmas tree

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z EC is very slightly NW of 00Z EC through 54 hours. Brings the core of the TC through the Leewards. Very dangerous situation.

[ronjon]

Euro seems south already.. direct hit on the NE islands..

Perhaps following UKMETs lead?

[AxaltaRacing24]

[Blown Away]

Euro seems south already.. direct hit on the NE islands..

Are your sure? Seems a tad N from previous run?

[gatorcane]

72 hours:

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF through 54 hours like the 0z. At 947 mbar at hour 54.

[drezee]

12Z EC is very slightly NW of 00Z EC through 54 hours. Brings the core of the TC through the Leewards. Very dangerous situation.

For two days the 12z is out to sea while the 0z is a hit...model is having issues with initialization upstream

[SouthDadeFish]

The trough over the eastern CONUS looks slightly deeper this run than the past two. The key is how long it hangs around for.

[latitude_20]

Is there any chance this will clip the northeastern Yucatan?

Hasn't been in the realm of the discussion. At the moment, the models don't see this going further west than Florida.

Thanks!

[Steve]

HWRF 126 hours

12Z - 22.1N 80.70W
06Z - 21.3N 78.75W
00Z - 21.5N 76.60W

So those are all 6 hours apart, but I think HWRF says whatever the interplay is with Cuba will curtail the intensity for a while if it is correct. It hasn't deviated from a more or less WNW movement though so I could see this curling up toward the W Coast of Florida as some of the other models have recently done.

[forecasterjack]

12Z ECMWF with a glancing blow to PR. Still too close for comfort https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/67 ... 0000z.html

[txwatcher91]

The trough over the eastern CONUS looks slightly deeper this run than the past two. The key is how long it hangs around for.

A deeper trough that hangs around longer would create a quicker N turn, correct?

[robbielyn]

NAVGEM has a Cat 3 952mb system hitting around Tampa Bay via the western Florida Keys at 144 hours. That's valid Sunday 8am EDT. That seems a little fast to come up and under in 6 days to me. I could be wrong. It's booking it though because by 168 it's in around Columbus, GA in WC Georgia. By 174 it's almost to Chattanooga, TN still showing 977mb.

Here's near landfall Sarasota/Tampa 144 hours:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=144

Tampa would be toast if that played out. They missed Charles by a hundred plus miles or so. Not this run..

sorry it's charley not charles

[gatorcane]

CMC ensembles with a right shift:

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like the 12Z EC is lifting the trough out a little faster than the 00Z through 90 hours. Irma is farther NW in this run.

[AxaltaRacing24]

[gatorcane]

96 hours:

[Steve]

SouthDade,

On the run to run comparison it looks a little SW and I mean just a little from the 00Z run at 96 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300