ATL: IRMA - Models

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF and GFS very similar at hour 96 with the ECMWF slightly west

[drezee]

Ridge is back in...going to FL on this run...no near miss

[sma10]

Thru 96h all models reasonably clustered. Major difference CMC, GFS, EURO no Antilles interaction. UK slightly southern tendency huge implications if correct

[ronjon]

I don't like that 591 dm bridge high setting up over north florida on the EC run.

[otowntiger]

If there's any ray of hope, it's that Irma is forecast to move much much faster than Harvey. Heck, if you look at that CMC model loop, it looks like it only takes a day and 1/2 to go up the entire East Coast Seaboard. That's quick! Which means that wind as opposed to flooding would be the main issue

While that certainly is good from a catastrophic rainfall event, a fast moving cat 4/5 can bring devastating winds much further inland. In fact I've read a recent study done by NOAA regarding inland wind from hurricanes and the forward speed played a huge role in how far inland damaging winds came. So it's almost like a two edged sword except I will grant that a similar rainfall event as was produced by Harvey is far more catastrophic and widespread.

[SouthDadeFish]

SouthDade,

On the run to run comparison it looks a little SW and I mean just a little from the 00Z run at 96 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

That is comparing today's 12Z to yesterday's 12Z. That's why, I think.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Not liking these northward trends in the short term. Good news for the islands and Cuba, bad news for FL.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Trouble

[gatorcane]

120 hours:

[ALhurricane]

The agreement between the GFS and ECMWF through Day 5 is fairly remarkable.

[Hurricane Andrew]

They have to be overdoing intensity that close to Cuba...

[gatorcane]

Slightly more ridging day 5 on 12Z Euro. This may be a direct South Florida hit when we see hour 144 frame

[ronjon]

Next frame on the Euro is critical. Does it turn north at 144 hrs?

[sma10]

Btw, So Florida will almost certainly be in the next 5 day cone i would think

[AutoPenalti]

Next frame on the Euro is critical. Does it turn north at 144 hrs?

I really hope you're right but this is heading N of due W.

This is a FL hit.

[xironman]

North Carolina here we come.

[AxaltaRacing24]

It appears we may see a sooner northern turn prior to FL and up the coadt to the carolinas as the Euro and some others now suggest. In fact the GFS is now hinting st a turn sooner, suttoe but happening. I think in the next fee runs we are going to see a right alignment again. Just my opinion for those of you who attack others

This run has more ridging. It's making the turn later. Not an attack but it's right in front of us.

[gatorcane]

12Z JMA shifts some east:

[Frank P]

not sure it can miss FL at that position

[plasticup]

Next frame on the Euro is critical. Does it turn north at 144 hrs?

If it misses the trough, it's GOM for sure. But I haven't seen any models predicting that.