ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bevgo]

Sorry I pulled it off of Facebook

[jlauderdal]

Ed rappaport director of nhc just said on channel 7 miami to not pay attention to models, pay attention to nhc track

[Aric Dunn]

Next plane is in the air.. we will know shortly if we have an even stronger hurricane.. which might be likely..

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062203
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 03 20170906
215400 1211N 06859W 0068 00030 0097 +306 +176 000000 000 /// /// 03
215430 1211N 06859W 0067 00013 0084 +303 +176 000000 000 /// /// 03
215500 1211N 06859W 0067 00012 0081 +297 +176 000000 000 /// /// 03
215530 1212N 06859W 0067 00011 0079 +297 +176 000000 000 /// /// 03
215600 1211N 06858W 0061 00009 0075 +291 +195 036005 006 /// /// 03
215630 1211N 06857W 9952 00086 0065 +277 +204 036008 010 /// /// 03
215700 1211N 06856W 9808 00237 0072 +261 +195 039008 009 /// /// 03
215730 1212N 06855W 9513 00497 0064 +247 +171 051008 009 /// /// 03
215800 1213N 06854W 9150 00838 0063 +234 +140 100005 007 /// /// 03
215830 1215N 06852W 8893 01091 0066 +223 +142 201006 008 /// /// 03
215900 1216N 06851W 8699 01280 0063 +210 +135 209010 011 /// /// 03
215930 1217N 06850W 8428 01549 0059 +191 +128 199014 014 /// /// 03
220000 1219N 06849W 8163 01825 0060 +177 +108 204014 015 /// /// 03
220030 1220N 06847W 7912 02093 0061 +163 +074 211013 014 /// /// 03
220100 1221N 06846W 7662 02366 0064 +147 +043 219011 012 /// /// 03
220130 1223N 06845W 7442 02614 0066 +136 -043 223011 012 /// /// 03
220200 1224N 06844W 7237 02849 0068 +122 -084 207007 010 /// /// 03
220230 1225N 06842W 7038 03084 0067 +107 -053 207005 007 /// /// 03
220300 1227N 06841W 6834 03327 0066 +092 -024 157003 004 /// /// 03
220330 1228N 06840W 6661 03542 0064 +080 -019 104002 003 /// /// 03
$$
;

Next plane leaving now.

[KBBOCA]

Just last week we were all speculating that Harvey would be the costliest natural disaster in US history. And now Irma could be worse if a Cat 4-5 hit on Miami and then a ride up along the entire FL coast as a major verifies...My mind honestly can't compute the reality of two such catastrophic storms back to back... Somehow we need a miracle.

 https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/905553274073473024

[Blizzard96x]

Next plane is in the air.. we will know shortly if we have an even stronger hurricane.. which might be likely..

Thanks for the update Aric, mind posting the link to where the data is posted directly? I know its somewhere on the NHC website but it must be hidden some place I can't find.

[KBBOCA]

First pictures I've seen from Barbuda - Irma's first landfall early this a.m.

 https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs/status/905553681268998144

[Kingarabian]

First pictures I've seen from Barbuda - Irma's first landfall early this a.m.

 https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs/status/905553681268998144

Almost completely leveled.

[Aric Dunn]

Look at tthat donut of -80 degree tops.. have not seen that until now.. crazy..

[CrazyC83]

First pictures I've seen from Barbuda - Irma's first landfall early this a.m.

 https://twitter.com/KeraunosObs/status/905553681268998144

Almost completely leveled.

Looks like Guiuan after Haiyan.

[KBBOCA]

About the only SLIVER of good news from today is that the eye stayed north of PR. But not too far north, and so I'm sure they're facing significant impacts. Here's 2 hour radar loop:

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/905553831920095232

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062213
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 04 20170906
220400 1229N 06838W 6499 03748 0064 +070 -046 086003 003 /// /// 03
220430 1230N 06837W 6339 03951 0064 +056 -067 063005 006 /// /// 03
220500 1232N 06836W 6215 04112 0070 +044 -083 083005 006 /// /// 03
220530 1233N 06835W 6093 04275 0070 +034 -099 097005 005 /// /// 03
220600 1234N 06833W 5924 04507 0065 +026 -133 112005 005 /// /// 03
220630 1236N 06832W 5804 04672 0062 +017 -133 111004 005 /// /// 03
220700 1237N 06831W 5684 04841 0060 +010 -167 090004 005 /// /// 03
220730 1238N 06829W 5575 04997 0055 +003 -193 096005 005 /// /// 03
220800 1240N 06828W 5476 05143 0246 -003 -210 097006 007 /// /// 03
220830 1241N 06827W 5376 05289 0255 -011 -243 081007 007 /// /// 03
220900 1242N 06826W 5280 05438 0269 -022 -247 060007 007 /// /// 03
220930 1244N 06824W 5192 05572 0276 -032 -216 063007 008 /// /// 03
221000 1245N 06823W 5108 05699 0284 -037 -194 060007 008 /// /// 03
221030 1246N 06822W 5038 05810 0292 -044 -200 060007 008 /// /// 03
221100 1248N 06820W 4972 05914 0300 -049 -206 074005 006 /// /// 03
221130 1249N 06819W 4915 06003 0305 -056 -219 104004 005 /// /// 03
221200 1251N 06818W 4850 06110 0312 -063 -247 117005 005 /// /// 03
221230 1252N 06816W 4778 06225 0319 -072 -259 088005 005 /// /// 03
221300 1253N 06815W 4696 06359 0328 -077 -275 052007 008 /// /// 03
221330 1255N 06814W 4639 06458 0337 -081 -288 035008 008 /// /// 03
$$
;

Appears to have taken off from Curacao, a backup base for St. Croix.

[CourierPR]

Miami beach mayor stated no mandatory evacuation order yet, he stated it was because the storm slowed down and they have more time to decide.

I thought the storm was at 14 mph yesterday and today it's going 16mph.

Can't let Miami beach lose any revenue........

That is a decision that may come back to haunt officials in Miami-Dade County. I think Broward County did the right thing by ordering mandatory evacuations starting today.

[KBBOCA]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/905555261406007301

[Extratropical94]

Next plane is in the air.. we will know shortly if we have an even stronger hurricane.. which might be likely..

Thanks for the update Aric, mind posting the link to where the data is posted directly? I know its somewhere on the NHC website but it must be hidden some place I can't find.

I'm not Aric, but on the website it's under Data & Tools > Aircraft Reconnaissance and then in the 'Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico Reconnaissance' section. As the mission is flown by an Air Force plane, you might want to choose the USAF High-Density Observations. Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml

If the NHC site is slow, use this direct link for the observation data from AF planes: http://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ur/urnt15.knhc..txt

[Vdogg]

It's making a run for a full CMG cover

Seems to be gaining latitude at a quicker pace than earlier.

[Hurricaneman]

It's making a run for a full CMG cover

Seems to be gaining latitude at a quicker pace than earlier.

Not really, it seems to be right on track, wobbled more north now its wobbling more west

[Vdogg]

About the only SLIVER of good news from today is that the eye stayed north of PR. But not too far north, and so I'm sure they're facing significant impacts. Here's 2 hour radar loop:

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/905553831920095232

That eye is damn near perfect. Definitely strengthening.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 062223
AF309 1511A IRMA HDOB 05 20170906
221400 1256N 06812W 4590 06546 0346 -087 -314 046007 008 /// /// 03
221430 1258N 06811W 4546 06620 0351 -087 -338 057004 006 /// /// 03
221500 1259N 06809W 4497 06700 0354 -090 -369 071003 003 /// /// 03
221530 1301N 06808W 4448 06778 0353 -097 -389 105004 004 /// /// 03
221600 1302N 06807W 4406 06846 0351 -100 -387 123004 005 /// /// 03
221630 1303N 06805W 4369 06910 0355 -104 -403 132004 004 /// /// 03
221700 1305N 06804W 4328 06984 0360 -109 -382 129003 003 /// /// 03
221730 1306N 06802W 4287 07057 0365 -115 -371 132004 004 /// /// 03
221800 1308N 06801W 4256 07111 0369 -120 -380 152004 004 /// /// 03
221830 1309N 06759W 4218 07181 0374 -125 -395 160005 005 /// /// 03
221900 1311N 06758W 4185 07241 0378 -130 -401 165006 006 /// /// 03
221930 1312N 06756W 4148 07307 0381 -136 -405 162006 007 /// /// 03
222000 1314N 06755W 4118 07363 0386 -140 -408 171005 006 /// /// 03
222030 1316N 06753W 4098 07399 0388 -144 -415 174005 005 /// /// 03
222100 1317N 06752W 4095 07405 0389 -145 -422 170005 005 /// /// 03
222130 1319N 06750W 4098 07401 0389 -145 -425 162006 006 /// /// 03
222200 1320N 06749W 4098 07401 0388 -145 -424 161006 007 /// /// 03
222230 1322N 06747W 4098 07401 0388 -145 -423 154007 007 /// /// 03
222300 1324N 06745W 4099 07400 0388 -145 -425 156007 007 /// /// 03
222330 1326N 06743W 4098 07401 0389 -145 -425 162008 008 /// /// 03
$$
;

[Sciencerocks]

Look at tthat donut of -80 degree tops.. have not seen that until now.. crazy..

Probably trying for the 200 mph winds now.