ATL: IRMA - Models

[plasticup]

Next frame on the Euro is critical. Does it turn north at 144 hrs?

If it misses the trough, it's GOM for sure. But I haven't seen any models predicting that.

[TheStormExpert]

Little to no differences in position @5day when comparing the 12z runs of the GFS and Euro. Heck, even the CMC isn't too far off!

[Steve]

SouthDade,

On the run to run comparison it looks a little SW and I mean just a little from the 00Z run at 96 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300

That is comparing today's 12Z to yesterday's 12Z. That's why, I think.

My bad. I forgot that he said that last year when he fixed it or tweaked it or something. The 500 map plots, so I'll mouse over them on their respective models:

12Z ECMWF

72 hours - 20.27N 68.89W
96 hours - 21.97N 74.43W
120 hrs - 23.27N 78.90W

00Z ECMWF

72 hours - 18.96N 65.66W
96 hours - 20.40N 71.05W
120 hrs - 22.00N 76.15W

[forecasterjack]

Irma stays N of Cuba per ECMWF... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/77 ... 1200z.html

[South Texas Storms]

935mb over Miami in 144 hours on the 12z Euro.

[Frank P]

nails SE FL

[AxaltaRacing24]

Ouch

[tarheelprogrammer]

935mb over Miami in 144 hours on the 12z Euro.

And that is low res right?

[KWT]

Models are in real good agreement at day 5 about the location of Irma being just to the north of Cuba. Whilst this may shift around a little the general location will probably be about right now. Of course small shifts makes the differencve between a major hitting Cuba and it staying offshore and instead smashing the southern Bahamas islands.

[Frank P]

Still moving NW to NNW at H144

[gatorcane]

144 hours

[bamajammer4eva]

last 4 12z runs valid 12z next Saturday

[South Texas Storms]

935mb over Miami in 144 hours on the 12z Euro.

And that is low res right?

Yeah high-res is 926mb.

[Steve]

935mb over Miami in 144 hours on the 12z Euro.

Utter destruction part 1. Big massive high building east across Canada so if it gets offshore, it's more likely to come north than follow the trough. I'd give odds on that 75/25

[tarheelprogrammer]

935mb over Miami in 144 hours on the 12z Euro.

And that is low res right?

Yeah high-res is 926mb.

What is the wind speed?

[OntarioEggplant]

I'm seeing 926 just off Key Largo at 144

[tgenius]

Yikes. At very least would be midday and not at midnight.

[SouthDadeFish]

I have 926 mb on high-res Euro at t=144 h, FWIW. Don't like the agreement. Let's see if 12Z EC ensembles became more clustered.

[stormreader]

144 hours

Considering the remarkable agreement between the GFS and the Euro (and I know its six days out), I would already be thinking about what I needed to do. What action plans need to be considered. Things can change. But overall models have been very consistent with gradually edging this into a S Fl hit with a very powerful hurricane. Think its time to really be thinking ahead.

[plasticup]

935mb over Miami in 144 hours on the 12z Euro.

That would be a historic storm...