ATL: IRMA - Models

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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5861 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:28 pm

Little to no differences in position @5day when comparing the 12z runs of the GFS and Euro. Heck, even the CMC isn't too far off! :eek:

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Last edited by TheStormExpert on Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Steve
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5862 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:28 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
Steve wrote:SouthDade,

On the run to run comparison it looks a little SW and I mean just a little from the 00Z run at 96 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=300


That is comparing today's 12Z to yesterday's 12Z. That's why, I think.


My bad. I forgot that he said that last year when he fixed it or tweaked it or something. The 500 map plots, so I'll mouse over them on their respective models:

12Z ECMWF

72 hours - 20.27N 68.89W
96 hours - 21.97N 74.43W
120 hrs - 23.27N 78.90W

00Z ECMWF

72 hours - 18.96N 65.66W
96 hours - 20.40N 71.05W
120 hrs - 22.00N 76.15W
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5863 Postby forecasterjack » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:28 pm

Irma stays N of Cuba per ECMWF... https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/77 ... 1200z.html
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5864 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:28 pm

935mb over Miami in 144 hours on the 12z Euro.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5865 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:29 pm

nails SE FL
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5866 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:29 pm

Ouch
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5867 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:29 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:935mb over Miami in 144 hours on the 12z Euro.


And that is low res right?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5868 Postby KWT » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:29 pm

Models are in real good agreement at day 5 about the location of Irma being just to the north of Cuba. Whilst this may shift around a little the general location will probably be about right now. Of course small shifts makes the differencve between a major hitting Cuba and it staying offshore and instead smashing the southern Bahamas islands.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5869 Postby Frank P » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:29 pm

Still moving NW to NNW at H144
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5870 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:30 pm

144 hours :double:

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5871 Postby bamajammer4eva » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:30 pm

last 4 12z runs valid 12z next Saturday

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5872 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:31 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:935mb over Miami in 144 hours on the 12z Euro.


And that is low res right?


Yeah high-res is 926mb.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5873 Postby Steve » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:31 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:935mb over Miami in 144 hours on the 12z Euro.


Utter destruction part 1. Big massive high building east across Canada so if it gets offshore, it's more likely to come north than follow the trough. I'd give odds on that 75/25
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5874 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:31 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:935mb over Miami in 144 hours on the 12z Euro.


And that is low res right?


Yeah high-res is 926mb.


What is the wind speed?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5875 Postby OntarioEggplant » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:31 pm

I'm seeing 926 just off Key Largo at 144
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5876 Postby tgenius » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:32 pm

Yikes. At very least would be midday and not at midnight.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5877 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:32 pm

I have 926 mb on high-res Euro at t=144 h, FWIW. Don't like the agreement. Let's see if 12Z EC ensembles became more clustered.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5878 Postby stormreader » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:33 pm

gatorcane wrote:144 hours :double:

Image

Considering the remarkable agreement between the GFS and the Euro (and I know its six days out), I would already be thinking about what I needed to do. What action plans need to be considered. Things can change. But overall models have been very consistent with gradually edging this into a S Fl hit with a very powerful hurricane. Think its time to really be thinking ahead.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5879 Postby plasticup » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:33 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:935mb over Miami in 144 hours on the 12z Euro.

That would be a historic storm...
Last edited by plasticup on Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#5880 Postby OntarioEggplant » Mon Sep 04, 2017 1:34 pm

924 mb over Miami Beach at 150
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