ATL: IRMA - Models

[forecasterjack]

Eyewall directly over Miami/Ft Lauderdale on ECMWF https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/78 ... 1800z.html

[fox13weather]

Not a good run for FL, if the 12z ECMWF is correct, that is a big ridge diving SE from southern Canada/Great Lakes area towards the NE US that could bend the track west up the FL Peninsula

Could have been a lot worse...the run never makes landfall in Florida and if the eyewall stays off shore then the state should have a big party.

[caneman]

That doesn't look like a,100 mile miss to me. More like 50

[KWT]

12Z Euro never brings the eye onshore in Florida. Remember, 100 mile miss to the east is a big big big deal...see Matthew

Won't Irma have a much larger windfield?

Yeah likely to be a much bigger storm than Matthew was by that point.

Anyway WAY to close for comfort, regardless of actual landfall you've got probably a top end 4 literally right offshore the coast of Florida this run, so close even a wobble west brings it inland.

[sma10]

Models are in real good agreement at day 5 about the location of Irma being just to the north of Cuba. Whilst this may shift around a little the general location will probably be about right now. Of course small shifts makes the differencve between a major hitting Cuba and it staying offshore and instead smashing the southern Bahamas islands.

And it's this tight consensus that has me worried. Not often you see this tight of a consensus, and it's been solidly tight for the past day. Normally, 6 days out you can laugh at being at the center of the models, but the forecast feels much more credible this time around. There is an almost certainty of a major hurricane off Florida's doorstep in 5 days. What happens after that is still unclear, but it's hard to see a scenario right now where some part of Florida isn't getting walloped.

There seems to be more clarity with Irma 7 days out, then there was with Matthew 4/5 days out before it was clear it was Florida-bound.

I do agree with you that there is an almost certainty of a storm approaching Florida in a few days. But its not that hard for me to see a scenario where they dont get wallloped:

1) The models could shift a degree or two to the east, happens all the time
2) The uk could be correct and Irma becomes a shell of herself

[AutoPenalti]

The fact that we are comparing two different storms is a bit absurd at this time.
Not every hurricane is alike, and yes we are talking about a 100 miles of error, but the fact of the matter is, the trend is still is to the west from yesterday's 0z guidance.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Not a good run for FL, if the 12z ECMWF is correct, that is a big ridge diving SE from southern Canada/Great Lakes area towards the NE US that could bend the track west up the FL Peninsula

Could have been a lot worse...the run never makes landfall in Florida and if the eyewall stays off shore then the state should have a big party.

It doesn't. High res euro brings it right on shore.

[MrJames]

[ConvergenceZone]

"That it most likely won't make the northern turn that was expected and will likely get into the gulf."

Somebody claiming to be a tropical expert posted this on a parenting forum I'm also on. Dangerous.

I always tell people that forums and message boards are opinions only. People should realize that. If someone wants official forecasts. they should be looking st the NHC or watching the weather channel.

[gatorcane]

We have 6 days for the models to shift off of Florida. That is enough time to keep this east of us. Definitely concerning though.

[xironman]

Looks like the ridge building in over Canada behind the upper low.

The low becomes a 50/50 low on previous runs (50 lat, 50 lon) this will lock in the surface ridge on the east coast keeping storms from escaping OTS. Classic east coast fall setup, lets see if it holds. Edit, it did landfall SC, not NC though...

[northjaxpro]

Not a good run for FL, if the 12z ECMWF is correct, that is a big ridge diving SE from southern Canada/Great Lakes area towards the NE US that could bend the track west up the FL Peninsula

That is my huge worry NDG. I see HP ridge building down from the NE U.S., forcing Irma to move N/NW right up the peninsula and moving into Georgia.

Just a horrendous scenario for the entire peninsula should EURO verify.


.

[pgoss11]

Look like landfall in Charleston SC (my backyard). What is the wind speed for a 969 mb hurricane?

[KWT]

Not a good run for FL, if the 12z ECMWF is correct, that is a big ridge diving SE from southern Canada/Great Lakes area towards the NE US that could bend the track west up the FL Peninsula

Could have been a lot worse...the run never makes landfall in Florida and if the eyewall stays off shore then the state should have a big party.

Eyewall DOES hit land, and its as close to a landfall as makes no difference for Miami anyway. ECM has 125mph gusts into Miami this run.

[Steve]

Not a good run for FL, if the 12z ECMWF is correct, that is a big ridge diving SE from southern Canada/Great Lakes area towards the NE US that could bend the track west up the FL Peninsula

Euro back/still offshore at 168 moving pretty fast. High building overhead, trough retreating and Jose closing in. System at 937mb and threatening GA/SC. Looks like an SC hit unless it follows the trough and it doesn't have much time to do that.

That's a big ridge to the north moving into NE US.
I don't like how slowly it moves up the coast, could be very damaging to SE coastal FL, if this run is correct.

Landfall GA/SC Border (Savannah, Hilton Head, Tybee) Monday-Tuesday as apparently a Cat 3.

That ridge was originally going to be a major player when GFS started with the MD runs. It's just that it's moving in with Irma much farther south. Looks like ECMWF should show an inland track like the GFS has shown over and over again and curve west at some point. We'll see.

[Blown Away]

Is the 12z Euro a slight W shift from 00z near Fl???

[fox13weather]

Won't Irma have a much larger windfield?

No two storms are alike has nothing to do with it. Impacts on the west side of hurricanes are always exaggerated....See Corpus Christi in Harvey. If you stay out of the eyewall...it's not a bad outcome at all....

No single storm is alike! Besides it gets much closer to the Florida east coast when compared to Matthew.

If the eyewall stays off the coast and never touches land then everyone can breathe a big sigh of relief.....that is all that matters...plain and simple...ESPECIALLY when you are on the west side. Basic physics....
I'm not saying that Florida is out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination, but Irma paralleling Florida off the east coast while never making landfall is still very much in play...

[AxaltaRacing24]

Is the 12z Euro a slight W shift from 00z...

Yep. Not looking good. At this rate the 00z might show a cruise down I-95.

[NDG]

Eyewall directly over Miami/Ft Lauderdale on ECMWF https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/78 ... 1800z.html
https://i.imgur.com/Ohkb10l.png

Very cool site, thanks for sharing.

[hurricaneCW]

Starting to wonder if models shift a bit further east and we get back to the original just east of FL to Carolinas landfall idea.

A lot will depend on the trough in the NE, the stronger/broader it is and the longer it lingers, the more likely Irma will end up further to the northeast.