ATL: IRMA - Models

[KWT]

I do agree with you that there is an almost certainty of a storm approaching Florida in a few days. But its not that hard for me to see a scenario where they dont get wallloped:

1) The models could shift a degree or two to the east, happens all the time
2) The uk could be correct and Irma becomes a shell of herself

All three situations are still very possible, though todays trend of a slightly more northerly system but a longer track of near due west again is probably about as bad as it could get, especially if it does lift up at just the wrong time.

Hurricanecw, certainly possible that happens, though I've been onboard with this going further west for some time.

Essentially, the models have been too far east at nearly every juncture thus far, if there is a trend I'd back it to go even further west at this point.

[Raebie]

Not a good run for FL, if the 12z ECMWF is correct, that is a big ridge diving SE from southern Canada/Great Lakes area towards the NE US that could bend the track west up the FL Peninsula

That is my huge worry NDG. I see HP ridge building down from the NE U.S., forcing Irma to move N/NW right up the peninsula and moving into Georgia.

Just a horrendous scenario for the entire peninsula should EURO verify.


.

Well it ain't too hot for GA, SC and NC either.

[M3gaMatch]

Looks like the ridge building in over Canada behind the upper low.

The low becomes a 50/50 low on previous runs (50 lat, 50 lon) this will lock in the surface ridge on the east coast keeping storms from escaping OTS. Classic east coast fall setup, lets see if it holds,

Yep, the only way I'd see OTS is if the trough lingered in the NE for longer effectively blocking the new ridge from coming into play. This is looking more and more unlikely now.

[NDG]

Is the 12z Euro a slight W shift from 00z near Fl???

Yes, it is a slight shift to the W from previous 0z run.

[stormreader]

This is a good post. It illustrates not only that Irma continues to creep further west while approaching S Fl, but also later in the track it is bent back west earlier than previously shown. Now into Savannah area. Telling me at six days that yes, you have a strong north turn, but west tendencies increasing both earlier and later in the track. Very, very difficult to imagine future runs which show much of any east movement now. IMO And I wouldn't rule out some further west earlier in the approach to Fl.

[BobHarlem]

Amazing how similar this and the 12Z GFS run are.

[ronjon]

Not a good run for FL, if the 12z ECMWF is correct, that is a big ridge diving SE from southern Canada/Great Lakes area towards the NE US that could bend the track west up the FL Peninsula

Could have been a lot worse...the run never makes landfall in Florida and if the eyewall stays off shore then the state should have a big party.

Western eyewall of a CAT 4 scrapping the gold coast from Miami to WPB. Yeah they're real lucky. Besides other models like the GFS and HWRF impact further west. You average the consensus and its very bad for S Florida.

[SFLcane]

SFL use today to get ready!! Don't wait

[bqknight]

Take a look at this from the Euro. Irma is forecasted to be HUGE. It's not exactly moving fast near S. Fla either.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/904775411288211458

[MrJames]

[NDG]

Amazing how similar this and the 12Z GFS run are.

I agree, its similarities are crazy, we don't usually see this much agreement on their medium range forecast.

[sma10]

I do agree with you that there is an almost certainty of a storm approaching Florida in a few days. But its not that hard for me to see a scenario where they dont get wallloped:

1) The models could shift a degree or two to the east, happens all the time
2) The uk could be correct and Irma becomes a shell of herself

All three situations are still very possible, though todays trend of a slightly more northerly system but a longer track of near due west again is probably about as bad as it could get, especially if it does lift up at just the wrong time.

Hurricanecw, certainly possible that happens, though I've been onboard with this going further west for some time.

Essentially, the models have been too far east at nearly every juncture thus far, if there is a trend I'd back it to go even further west at this point.

Agreed. No doubt, things look dire at face value. But 6 days in tropical forecasting is about 1000 dog years - lots can, and usually do, happen.

[ronyan]

No one in S Florida would feel comfortable with a strong hurricane approaching if the eyewall was forecast to remain only a few miles off shore. Would you trust the forecast if a 20 mile error could result in you receiving 100+ mph winds? In retrospect you could breathe a sigh of relief.

[NDG]

Not a good run for FL, if the 12z ECMWF is correct, that is a big ridge diving SE from southern Canada/Great Lakes area towards the NE US that could bend the track west up the FL Peninsula

Could have been a lot worse...the run never makes landfall in Florida and if the eyewall stays off shore then the state should have a big party.

One thing to point out is that the ECMWF keeps trending westward, how much further west who knows, but not until it stops and or it starts trending east all of FL has to be in alert over the next day or so.

[lando]

What did someone mean when they said U.K. Was predicting Irma to be she'll of her self?

[Kohlecane]

Okay im in HH ,SC well Beaufort but this looks to come over my House. At this time frame out a week with Euro and GFS is the avg varience of track from E to W???

[TheStormExpert]

[Michele B]

Can you believe the HWRF is coming in stronger and IR simulation shows an even larger storm:

This thing is MONSTROUS!!! The eye looks to be about 60 miles across....

HolyS&*@!!!

[stormreader]

Not a good run for FL, if the 12z ECMWF is correct, that is a big ridge diving SE from southern Canada/Great Lakes area towards the NE US that could bend the track west up the FL Peninsula

Could have been a lot worse...the run never makes landfall in Florida and if the eyewall stays off shore then the state should have a big party.

One thing to point out is that the ECMWF keeps trending westward, how much further west who knows, but not until it stops and or it starts trending east all of FL has to be in alert over the next day or so.

And look at the later track where it is bent back west again more quickly (into Savannah). I really looks as though the East door is closing tight right now. So the storm might get no further east than what is now shown in today's run. Ridiculously close, and odds favor further west, if anything.

[Ken711]

Starting to wonder if models shift a bit further east and we get back to the original just east of FL to Carolinas landfall idea.

A lot will depend on the trough in the NE, the stronger/broader it is and the longer it lingers, the more likely Irma will end up further to the northeast.

That's my feeling as well. Still thinking landfall in NC Wilmington to Outer Banks could be possibility if the trough holds.