ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

I'm still puzzled on how it can end up in the Florida Panhandle with a fairly stout ridge over the Mississippi Valley - the flow would be clockwise around that? Unless a front is coming in and sucking it northeast?

Where are you seeing the ridge over the Mississippi Valley? The dominant ridge in North America is over the SW US (hence the reason temps in Phoneix are approaching 120F this week).

[wxman57]

I was comparing the upper-level flow for Monday PM between the EC and the GFS. GFS has a deep upper low over the NW Gulf through Tuesday into Wednesday. Euro backs the upper low west to Laredo, TX by Monday PM and builds a ridge over the Gulf. Thus, the GFS taking the system north. Which one has the right upper-air pattern? EC has ruled that area in recent months.

[Hurricaneman]

Could be typical weirdness of the GFS

[tolakram]

Another long saved loop.

http://i.imgur.com/vrf9esv.gif

[txwatcher91]

Could be typical weirdness of the GFS

I doubt it. The CMC has shown this for days and the 18z NAM did shift North a bit as well. It really depends on how quickly the energy consolidates and if that piece that splits off can take over. The GFS and CMC show that while Euro doesn't.

[WeatherEmperor]

I think now would be a good reminder to point out that last year we had an epic battle between the GFS and Euro for 99L that eventually became Hermine. Up until 72-96 hours before passing through the FL Straights the Euro had the system hitting South Florida as a TS/Cat1 storm...whereas the GFS had a weak low pressure moving through. The Euro eventually abandoned its solution and went to the GFS's solution...creating one of the biggest busts the Euro has seen.

I am not trying to imply the same will happen again...but just want to point it out that the GFS is not always wrong.

I am not sure about the level of bustation (is that even a real word?) that will happen here but considering the timeframe is within 72 hours, a bust of some proportions will take place by the Euro or GFS once again.


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[NDG]

The Island of Roatan reporting pressure now down to 1006 mb with a light west wind, Belize with a northerly wind pressure down to 1006 mb, pressures continue to drop across the NW Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO: 40%-80%

A broad area of low pressure located over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected while
it moves slowly northwestward across the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday
and over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico early next week,
where a tropical or subtropical cyclone is likely to form.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over portions of
Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands,
and western Cuba during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system on
Sunday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Alyono]

Curious to see what the HWRF shows in about an hour.

it is of no help at all. It's tracking the Yucatan. Doesn't bring anything offshore until Tuesday, which is very late. Seems like a moving nest issue

[psyclone]

typical june slow cooker genesis...always dangerous for a board of weather enthusiasts desirous of microwave results. I'd put all of my chips (except for 1) on the Euro. Nevertheless, deep moisture with PWATs AOA 2" will be advecting over the Florida peninsula starting tomorrow and considering the eastward extent of the convection this disturbed area has been kicking off, it seems it may have impacts on areas well away from it's eventual center/path. Just came back from a swim in the Gulf...water was clear, tranquil and turquois with a temp in the mid 80's. feels like hurricane season for sure.

[stormreader]

I think now would be a good reminder to point out that last year we had an epic battle between the GFS and Euro for 99L that eventually became Hermine. Up until 72-96 hours before passing through the FL Straights the Euro had the system hitting South Florida as a TS/Cat1 storm...whereas the GFS had a weak low pressure moving through. The Euro eventually abandoned its solution and went to the GFS's solution...creating one of the biggest busts the Euro has seen.

I am not trying to imply the same will happen again...but just want to point it out that the GFS is not always wrong.

I am not sure about the level of bustation (is that even a real word?) that will happen here but considering the timeframe is within 72 hours, a bust of some proportions will take place by the Euro or GFS once again.

And really, last year both of the models struggled. The long range confidence that seemed to be becoming the norm faltered. Worst example was with the season's major player "Mathew". Both models had it several hundred miles off the Atlantic coast (even near Bermuda). Instead it hugged the coast up into Carolina. In general I like the climo angle. In this case Euro seems more reasonable. If high over SW stays strong then system into Tex-Mex. Some weakening allows drift up Texas coast. Going with that.

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[stormreader]

Sorry to Weather Emperor about messing up that reply to his post about model performance last year. My reply actually starts with the words "And really...."

[bamajammer4eva]

If the GFS were correct PC Beach would have a wet week coming up.



NWS Tallahassee is Euro all the way though

Guidance starts to
diverge on Monday in regards to the tropical disturbance expected in
the Gulf. The GFS brings the low and moisture northward on Monday
whereas the ECWMF and UKMET keep the disturbance further south and
west. While the track will have more significant impacts on the
long term forecast, regardless of the ECMWF/UKMET or the GFS
solution, should see an increase in moisture and PoPs for Monday
into Monday night.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Large differences exist between model solutions and the positioning
of the tropical disturbance in the long term. The GFS brings the
system into the eastern/central Gulf with impacts to the CWA,
however the ECMWF keeps the system south and pushes it into the
western Gulf, with little impact to the CWA. Have trended toward the
ECWMF solution and while it does bring some increased moisture to
the CWA early in the week, it is drier for the second half of the
week. If the ECMWF solution does verify, the PoP forecast for the
second half of the week may be high. While the forecast leans toward
the solution of the tropical disturbance remaining well south and
west of the area, if the GFS solution were to verify, much more rain
would be expected and this would have to be watched closely in
regards to the flood potential.

[NDG]

Good night 93L, you are one heck of a big system, typical of a monsoonal low that takes a little while to get going but you bring plenty of heavy tropical rains.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro Parallel:

Moves the system into WGOM, drops the pressure to 999mb, then a trough picks it up, starts moving N, begins to weaken and then NE with landfall over Texas near the Houston area as a 1004mb TS.

[txwatcher91]

I think now would be a good reminder to point out that last year we had an epic battle between the GFS and Euro for 99L that eventually became Hermine. Up until 72-96 hours before passing through the FL Straights the Euro had the system hitting South Florida as a TS/Cat1 storm...whereas the GFS had a weak low pressure moving through. The Euro eventually abandoned its solution and went to the GFS's solution...creating one of the biggest busts the Euro has seen.

I am not trying to imply the same will happen again...but just want to point it out that the GFS is not always wrong.

I am not sure about the level of bustation (is that even a real word?) that will happen here but considering the timeframe is within 72 hours, a bust of some proportions will take place by the Euro or GFS once again.

And really, last year both of the models struggled. The long range confidence that seemed to be becoming the norm faltered. Worst example was with the season's major player "Mathew". Both models had it several hundred miles off the Atlantic coast (even near Bermuda). Instead it hugged the coast up into Carolina. In general I like the climo angle. In this case Euro seems more reasonable. If high over SW stays strong then system into Tex-Mex. Some weakening allows drift up Texas coast. Going with that.

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Don't forget the GFS did much better than the Euro. It wasn't perfect but consistently had a Florida to NC threat for days while the Euro was showing out to sea to Bermuda, everyone thought that would happen because it's the Euro... and the GFS solution was much closer to what transpired. The fact that the GFS/CMC are so similar and the 18z NAM shifted north is interesting. After recon tomorrow maybe we get some model consolidation.

[stormreader]

12z Euro Parallel:

Moves the system into WGOM, drops the pressure to 999mb, then a trough picks it up, starts moving N, begins to weaken and then NE with landfall over Texas near the Houston area as a 1004mb TS.

Ok. I think we're getting closer now with that Euro Para forecast. W Gom, then drift north up Texas coast. Houston area sounds about right with much of the moisture into SW La.

[cycloneye]

00z Best track.

As of 00:00 UTC Jun 18, 2017:

Location: 17.5°N 87.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1008 mb
Radius of Circulation: 240 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 180 NM

[WeatherEmperor]

Any idea why it still shows GFDL instead of HMON? When can we expect the new model to be run?




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[stormreader]

Good night 93L, you are one heck of a big system, typical of a monsoonal low that takes a little while to get going but you bring plenty of heavy tropical rains.

Perhaps a little slow. But that 1006 mb reading that you reported is significant.