EPAC: EUGENE - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

It has so much deep convection right now that the thing looks as though it were going to cover the entire image frame with one yellow, orange and red blob.


Very impressive.

[Yellow Evan]

Track looks somewhat similar to Delores from 2015 although won't be as strong.

Dolores was a bit further NW.

[Yellow Evan]

All tropical cyclone forecast models agree on a parallel the coast offshore track as Eugene remains on the western edge of a ridge. All models show intensification, with the GFS making this around 85 knots, GFS-P has 90 knots, ECMWF has 65 knots, HWRF has 75 knots, HWRF-P has 85 knots, and HMON has 85 knots, SHIPS/LGEM has 80 knots. However, given that this will be moving over the sharp SST's of the California Current, I think most of the guidance peaks this too late, and unless this moves slower than expected, Eugene will be over 25C water in 60 hours time. Latest SAB T number is at T1.5. With 48 hours left, the standard 1/T number a day seems too low, which would bring this to T3.5/55 knots in two days, given that for now the waters it is over is very warm and the shear is less than 10 knots. The so-called rapid intensification of T1.5/day seems more reasonable, and that would bring this to T4.5 in 48 hours. I'd expect a peak of 80 knots, but this could be conservative if it ramps up tonight.

[Ntxw]

All tropical cyclone forecast models agree on a parallel the coast offshore track as Eugene remains on the western edge of a ridge. All models show intensification, with the GFS making this around 85 knots, GFS-P has 90 knots, ECMWF has 65 knots, HWRF has 75 knots, HWRF-P has 85 knots, and HMON has 85 knots, SHIPS/LGEM has 80 knots. However, given that this will be moving over the sharp SST's of the California Current, I think most of the guidance peaks this too late, and unless this moves slower than expected, Eugene will be over 25C water in 60 hours time. Latest SAB T number is at T1.5. With 48 hours left, the standard 1/T number a day seems too low, which would bring this to T3.5/55 knots in two days, given that for now the waters it is over is very warm and the shear is less than 10 knots. The so-called rapid intensification of T1.5/day seems more reasonable, and that would bring this to T4.5 in 48 hours. I'd expect a peak of 80 knots, but this could be conservative if it ramps up tonight.

Yeah that sounds reasonable. How quickly it gets it act together overnight is important in terms of utilizing the best conditions and SSTs. It will weaken quickly like Dora once it hits the cooler waters. We may be looking at a similar situation to the previous hurricane albeit this one has a large envelope.

[Sciencerocks]

08/0000 UTC 12.5N 111.5W T2.0/2.0 EUGENE -- East Pacific

Nice convection forming near the center with banding...I believe the nhc made the right choice going to Eugene at 5pm est.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 05, 2017070800, , BEST, 0, 122N, 1113W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 40, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, EUGENE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 008,

[cycloneye]

Umm if it stays at 35kts,then the window to be a powerful hurricane shrinks more fast unless it does RI.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Coming together nicely this evening. Should be near hurricane strength this time tomorrow and may peak as a Category 2 hurricane by Sunday afternoon before the storm enters cooler waters and a more stable environment.

[cycloneye]

RI of 25kts goes up to 55%.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EUGENE EP052017 07/08/17 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 55 65 71 71 66 61 53 45 38
V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 55 65 71 71 66 61 53 45 38
V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 48 51 59 64 65 59 50 42 34 28
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 4 3 9 7 5 1 1 8 5 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -4 -7 -6 -7 -5 0 2 0 -1 2 -1
SHEAR DIR 295 251 265 248 211 152 146 195 84 317 242 249 252
SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.2 26.2 24.5 23.1 22.2 21.5 20.6 19.9
POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 151 147 143 136 125 107 92 83 75 66 60
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0
700-500 MB RH 72 71 69 68 67 67 66 65 60 59 56 55 51
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 21 24 26 25 24 23 20 18 16
850 MB ENV VOR 45 43 33 31 34 25 33 18 11 13 17 15 3
200 MB DIV 105 104 101 82 64 42 63 17 -1 -12 -12 -17 -7
700-850 TADV -5 -6 -3 -1 0 -2 0 -4 -4 -4 0 -3 -1
LAND (KM) 1044 1035 1033 1042 997 916 866 818 801 821 769 756 776
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.8 13.3 14.0 14.6 16.0 17.5 19.0 20.3 21.5 22.8 23.9 25.1
LONG(DEG W) 111.3 111.8 112.3 113.0 113.6 114.8 116.0 117.2 118.4 119.5 120.3 121.2 122.2
STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 8
HEAT CONTENT 39 33 26 19 16 19 3 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=550)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 44.1

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 16. 16. 16. 14. 10.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 11. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 30. 36. 36. 31. 26. 18. 10. 3.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.2 111.3

** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/08/17 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 6.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.93 11.9
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.25 2.6
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.66 5.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 6.6
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -2.6
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.55 0.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 127.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 0.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 3.6 times sample mean (15.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.0 times sample mean (10.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 7.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times sample mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 24.5% 54.9% 41.7% 32.8% 23.7% 39.1% 32.7% 10.9%
Logistic: 56.8% 80.5% 75.4% 72.9% 65.7% 75.1% 42.7% 4.6%
Bayesian: 26.1% 63.7% 31.7% 13.7% 5.7% 11.3% 4.1% 0.1%
Consensus: 35.8% 66.4% 49.6% 39.8% 31.7% 41.9% 26.5% 5.2%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/08/17 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

I'd go higher than 35kts. Quite a large core. It's in the process of wrapping around a large eyewall.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052017
900 PM MDT Fri Jul 07 2017

Eugene is gradually becoming better organized this evening, with
infrared and microwave satellite imagery showing a large band of
convection developing over the southeastern semicircle. Various
satellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 45 kt, and the
initial intensity is increased to 40 kt in best agreement with the
CIMSS satellite consensus technique.

The initial motion is 315/8. There is little change to either the
forecast philosophy or the forecast track since the previous
advisory. A mid- to upper-level low moving westward from
northwestern Mexico and an upper-level low seen in water vapor
imagery near 19N 120W have created a weakness in the subtropical
ridge west of the Baja California peninsula. This feature is
likely to persist through 120 h allowing Eugene to move steadily
northwestward into the weakness through the forecast period. The
new forecast track is near the consensus models and the center of
the guidance envelope.

Eugene is currently in an environment of light shear and warm water
with good to excellent outflow in all directions. The large-scale
models forecast the shear to remain light until the storm moves
over decreasing sea surface temperatures in about 48 h. Based on
this, the intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening until 48
h, with the new forecast lying near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance. It should be noted that the rapid intensification index
of the SHIPS model responds to the nearly ideal environment by
showing a better than a 50 percent chance of 25 kt of strengthening
during the next 24 h. So, an alternative forecast scenario is for
rapid intensification if Eugene develops a well-defined inner core.
After 48 h, Eugene should weaken steadily to rapidly over the cooler
water, with the system now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low
over 21C sea surface temperatures by 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 12.5N 111.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 13.2N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 14.5N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 15.8N 114.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 17.3N 116.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 20.0N 118.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 22.5N 121.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 25.0N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

[weathaguyry]

Seems like a Dora-esc situation based on NHC forecast

[Ntxw]

Really working on it's core now, dense convection is wrapping into it

[hurricanes1234]

Indeed, already looking much tighter than it did today. Eager to see what I wake up to in the morning.

[hurricanes1234]

One hour later, I haven't even gone to sleep yet and here's what I find ...

[Ntxw]

Looking great. RI can't be too far away overall clouds have cooled quite a bit. Might be hard to sleep on this one

[txwatcher91]

One hour later, I haven't even gone to sleep yet and here's what I find ...

The “fist” has formed. This usually precedes RI in my experience. Classic look and I would expect a hurricane tomorrow.

[dexterlabio]

^Yup, the fist! Finally a true potential howler in the NHem this year.

[Kingarabian]

Should ramp up quickly now that the core is almost closed off.



Very intense cloud tops:



Dvorak intensities are going to lag. Hope the NHC continues to interpolate and consider microwave and BD imagery in its intensity forecast.

I'd go with 50-60kts.

[Alyono]

no higher than 45 kts right now