CPAC: FERNANDA - Post-Tropical

[Hurricane Andrew]

Do we know when the HWRF-P takes over for the operational HWRF? Both show significant and fairly quick intensification, to at least a strong category 3, the operational seems to push it into category 4 range. The HMON-P is somewhat weaker, but still shows a hurricane.

[Ntxw]

Do we know when the HWRF-P takes over for the operational HWRF? Both show significant and fairly quick intensification, to at least a strong category 3, the operational seems to push it into category 4 range. The HMON-P is somewhat weaker, but still shows a hurricane.

July 26 so here in a few weeks

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/

[Alyono]

HMON is showing an eyewall replacement at the end of the period

[cycloneye]

Still a TD.

EP, 06, 2017071212, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1111W, 30, 1006, TD

[cycloneye]

Anyone knows the name of model CTCI that is at cat 5?

[RL3AO]

Anyone knows the name of model CTCI that is at cat 5?

COAMPS-TC - the Navy model.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Anyone knows the name of model CTCI that is at cat 5?


http://i.imgur.com/oMSLnwG.png

CTCI Previous Experimental COAMPS-TC Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr

Source, and a helpful guide: http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/models.html

[cycloneye]

Thanks to both for the answer. So the Navy goes higher than HWRF.

[Extratropical94]

We have Fernanda!

Tropical Storm Fernanda Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 111.5W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[cycloneye]

The last sentence says all about the intensity upwards Fernanda will get with the very favorable enviroment.

Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062017
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Convection associated with Tropical Depression Six-E has become
better organized during the past several hours. While the cyclone
is still being affected by northeasterly vertical wind shear, an
area of convection has formed over the low-level center and outer
convective bands are present in the southwestern semicircle. An
average of various satellite intensity estimates is 35 kt, and based
on this the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Fernanda.

The initial motion is 270/9. Deep-layer ridging north of the
cyclone is steering it generally westward, and the ridge is expected
to strengthen and build westward during the next 4-5 days. Based
on this evolution, Fernanda should move generally westward or south
of westward through at least 72 hours, with a north of west motion
expected thereafter. There has been little change in the guidance
since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is similar
to, but slightly south of, the previous forecast.

The large-scale models suggest that the current shear should
subside over the next 24 h or so and then remain light through the
remainder of the forecast period. That, combined with 28-29C sea
surface temperatures along the forecast track, should allow the
system to intensify. As seen in the previous advisory, the new
intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening during the first
24-36 h, followed by a faster rate of development from 36-72 h.
The new forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is in best
agreement with the intensity consensus. It should be noted that
while the environment is not currently conducive for rapid
intensification, it may become more favorable once the shear
decreases.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 12.0N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 12.0N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 12.0N 114.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 11.9N 116.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 11.7N 118.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 11.5N 123.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 12.0N 128.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 13.0N 133.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Alyono]

Canadian dissipates this rather quickly. UKMET only going with very gradual intensification

Wonder if there are some unfavorable thermodynamics as the global models do not seem to like this very much

[Yellow Evan]

Canadian dissipates this rather quickly. UKMET only going with very gradual intensification

Wonder if there are some unfavorable thermodynamics as the global models do not seem to like this very much

SST's are 28C+ over its forecast path. Maybe mid-level shear?

[cycloneye]

@philklotzbach
Tropical Storm #Fernanda has formed in NE Pacific - the 6th TC of the 2017 season. Average 6th NS formation date for NE Pacific is July 30.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/885182120338927616

[cycloneye]

12z EC going a little bit stronger than 00z. Hawaii watch out.





Just south of Hilo.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/885160861454790657

[cycloneye]

As of 18:00 UTC Jul 12, 2017:

Location: 11.9°N 111.7°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1005 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 20 NM

[cycloneye]

@TropicalTidbits
Whoa. HMON may be capable of simulating eyewall replacement cycles. They are not always easy to get in a hurricane model.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/885208168778825729

[Kingarabian]

Shear still blowing and the center is exposed to the east. You can see why the models were not really developing Fernanda yesterday as It is a small system and usually small systems struggle with shear. However, it has maintained itself quite well and because it's a small system, if shear relaxes just a bit it can rapidly intensify. Interesting siutation.

[Kingarabian]

GFS Parallel making this a STRONG cat 4:

[cycloneye]

Hmon Para very strong.