ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
If you go right down the middle of the NHC shading, it looks like a bit of a northward turn near the end, possibly accounting for the model trend that has the ridge weakening.
1 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- tropicwatch
- Category 5
- Posts: 3205
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
- Location: Panama City Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
It has lost a lot of its convection tonight but the upper level conditions appear to be favorable. The 850mb vorticity just north of Venezuela has been steadily increasing.
0 likes
Tropicwatch
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2422
- Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
- Location: Florida State University
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
GFS showing development again right before 90L's trip over Yucatan:
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
looks like about a degree northward shift in the GFS
These trends are quite concerning to me
These trends are quite concerning to me
4 likes
- TropicalAnalystwx13
- Category 5
- Posts: 2109
- Age: 26
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
NAVGEM with what would be a cat 3/4 given its resolution near the TX/MX Border
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
EC coming in quite a bit stronger at 96 hours. Solid TS heading to the Yucatan
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Looks like the Euro is in the low 970's at landfall. Very similar to 12z, just 10mb stronger.
0 likes
- South Texas Storms
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4028
- Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Siker wrote:Looks like the Euro is in the low 970's at landfall. Very similar to 12z, just 10mb stronger.
It's actually a bit farther north compared to 12z. Closer to the TX/MX border this run.
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
If you look at the 00Z for that last 3 runs it's further north on each successive run.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Jerry wrote:If you look at the 00Z for that last 3 runs it's further north on each successive run.
Getting closer and closer to TX with each run it seems. I think this is a time where the ensembles could really come in handy.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Jerry wrote:If you look at the 00Z for that last 3 runs it's further north on each successive run.
Seems like it's getting stronger too, down 6mb from the last run.
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- ouragans
- Category 1
- Posts: 468
- Age: 52
- Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:09 pm
- Location: Abymes, Guadeloupe F.W.I
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
2. A strong tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development by Sunday over the western Caribbean Sea and by early
next week over the Bay of Campeche while the disturbance moves
westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. This system could
produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds over Aruba, Bonaire,
and Curacao tonight and Friday. For additional information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Aug 4 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
2. A strong tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for
development by Sunday over the western Caribbean Sea and by early
next week over the Bay of Campeche while the disturbance moves
westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. This system could
produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds over Aruba, Bonaire,
and Curacao tonight and Friday. For additional information on this
system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
0 likes
Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
somehow, the GFS is coming in with only gradual intensification in the BOC, despite being under an upper high
0 likes
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 279
- Age: 33
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2017 6:53 pm
- Location: Corpus christi
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Alyono wrote:somehow, the GFS is coming in with only gradual intensification in the BOC, despite being under an upper high
Conditions look favorable for Rapid developement once in that area ...... Am I right ? How much dry air and shear will be waiting for it ?
0 likes
- tropicwatch
- Category 5
- Posts: 3205
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
- Location: Panama City Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
The current front over the northern Gulf Coast appears to have stopped progressing southward. The front behind it also appears to have slowed its progression southward. If this continues, will it prevent high pressure from being able to build in the gulf and allow a more northward progression of 90L?
0 likes
Tropicwatch
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139527
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
20%-60%
A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the
central and eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical
wave. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward at
about 15 mph across the western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche
through the middle of next week, where environmental conditions
appear conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
central and eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a tropical
wave. This disturbance is expected to move west-northwestward at
about 15 mph across the western Caribbean Sea and Bay of Campeche
through the middle of next week, where environmental conditions
appear conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests