ATL: HARVEY - Models

[RL3AO]

Shortwave over the Carolinas finally turns it to sea. Here's the first 10 days.

[LarryWx]

Fortunately on this run for the SE US, the high to the north is too weak to push it further west but that's bad news for the NE US

[weathaguyry]

Uh oh. Looks to be moving due north at 264 hours with nothing to push it out to sea, could be something like Belle 76' this run

[ColdMiser123]

Verbatim it looks like as if it wants to phase with the trough this run.

[RL3AO]

The track is very dependent on how soon it develops and how strong the upper low is that the models develop in five days or so. Two very difficult things to forecast that could make drastic changes on where this system goes.

[Alyono]

The track is very dependent on how soon it develops and how strong the upper low is that the models develop in five days or so. Two very difficult things to forecast that could make drastic changes on where this system goes.

and also if we get a SAL surge like the UKMET is saying. Wonder if the Euro will be similar since it was similar to the UK at 0Z

[weathaguyry]

I will definitely be watching this closely from Long Island. It looks like steering currents will get weak, which will make for a tricky forecast, according to the 12z GFS.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian running through the southern Bahamas

[ronjon]

12z GEM almost identical to 00z Euro.

[Hurricaneman]

Track wise it seems the Canadian is on the Euro's side as it has more ridging while the GFS seems to be building a trough around day 9, let's see where it goes as when in doubt go with the Euro

[FLpanhandle91]

Obviously way too early to tell, but the thing that Concerns me with the Euro and Canadian run is the potential for a tropical storm to emerge into the gulf after an interaction with the small speed bump that is the Florida pen. How do their tracks relate to Katrina? Weren't the origins of that storm a weak depression that came off the African coast and got it's act together in the Bahamas?

[stormreader]

12z Canadian running through the southern Bahamas

And with the poor performance of the GFS this year, that Canadian model is not to be discounted. In any case, we're all still in fairy tale land. Give it another 5 days or so, for a better picture.

[bamajammer4eva]

Obviously way too early to tell, but the thing that Concerns me with the Euro and Canadian run is the potential for a tropical storm to emerge into the gulf after an interaction with the small speed bump that is the Florida pen. How do their tracks relate to Katrina? Weren't the origins of that storm a weak depression that came off the African coast and got it's act together in the Bahamas?

Wouldn't be a good situation

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/896780558226923521

[ColdMiser123]

12z ECM out to hour 48 with two distinct areas of vorticity consolidation.

[blp]

12z Euro going with the two lows developing separately instead of one taking over. Interesting to see how this turns out. Also stronger.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017081312/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_3.png

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM weaker and more south:

[p1nheadlarry]

Trough will pick this up.

The EURO usually overdoes the ridge, right?


...or was it the other way around?

Euro has forecasted a stronger ridge most of the season, but you also have the CFS on board with above average mslp anomalies in the central/tropical ATL as well as a negative-trending NAO. It could be interesting but we have imo a few days before this system starts to really get going.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro not merging areas and has two areas now:

[ColdMiser123]

Western vorticity is becoming dominant. More impressive mid-level signature than previous run.

[Alyono]

looks like the EC is developing both systems now