ATL: JOSE - Models

[txwatcher91]

Interesting that the GFS is best inside 72 hours, I would have thought the Euro would take that place.

[Alyono]

GFS needs ocean coupling badly. It has Jose lingering over cool waters for days and intensifying, when it would in reality weaken due to upwelling

[Kingarabian]

GFS needs ocean coupling badly. It has Jose lingering over cool waters for days and intensifying, when it would in reality weaken due to upwelling

Ocean coupling similar to the HWRF?

[Alyono]

GFS has a perfectly symmertrical hurricane with an eye on Wednesday

Does it not see the shear? Holy bad run here

[txwatcher91]

GFS needs ocean coupling badly. It has Jose lingering over cool waters for days and intensifying, when it would in reality weaken due to upwelling

New GFS needs a lot of changes... I miss the old one. It had its problems too but it didn’t constantly show Category 5 storms hitting everywhere... and to make it worse people post those runs all over social media and cause panic.

[Ken711]

GFS needs ocean coupling badly. It has Jose lingering over cool waters for days and intensifying, when it would in reality weaken due to upwelling

New GFS needs a lot of changes... I miss the old one. It had its problems too but it didn’t constantly show Category 5 storms hitting everywhere... and to make it worse people post those runs all over social media and cause panic.

Why does the GFS appear to always over intensify hurricanes in their model runs?

[1900hurricane]

Subtropical/mid-latitude over-intensification of tropical cyclones is a common bias amongst guidance. It's usually pretty easy to catch and adjust for as a forecaster, but with Jose just kind of loping around and Maria coming in from behind, it's having big implications on the pattern for the entire North Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

Subtropical/mid-latitude over-intensification of tropical cyclones is a common bias amongst guidance. It's usually pretty easy to catch and adjust for as a forecaster, but with Jose just kind of loping around and Maria coming in from behind, it's having big implications on the pattern for the entire North Atlantic.

The upgraded GFS clearly overintensifies systems whether they are mid latitude or tropical latitude as compared to the old GFS for some reason.

[PTPatrick]

Subtropical/mid-latitude over-intensification of tropical cyclones is a common bias amongst guidance. It's usually pretty easy to catch and adjust for as a forecaster, but with Jose just kind of loping around and Maria coming in from behind, it's having big implications on the pattern for the entire North Atlantic.

The upgraded GFS clearly overintensifies systems whether they are mid latitude or tropical latitude as compared to the old GFS for some reason.

It used to underintensify if memory serves...so they have over corrected here

[Alyono]

this is nothing more than comedy gold from the GFS. Surely my tax dollars that go toward these upgrades should be able to fix a problem of lack of ocean coupling

[Alyono]

please fix your model, NCEP

Having Jose pass New England as a cat 2/3 is laughable, but having it intensify over cold water?

[shah83]

hwrf looks excessively interesting so far for the Leewards...

[RL3AO]

Euro continues to have Jose stop in its tracks just off Long Island.

[Brent]

Euro about to hit NJ radically different than the other models

[storm4u]

Euro about to hit NJ radically different than the other models

Looks like the ukie

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

ukmet Its a game of inches as too a landfall

[xironman]

I'm not sure I get the cone at this time. The Ukie has had the hot hand lately. Even the Euro is way on the left side.

[txwatcher91]

I’m wondering why the NHC chose to ignore the UK and Euro solutions, going with the GFS instead. I can maybe see why they’d ignore the UK but the Euro has been their model of choice with Jose and it shows a far different idea than their cone... maybe they’re waiting to see what the 12z runs show.

[weathaguyry]

For what it's worth, here's the 12z NAM

[wxman57]

I'm not sure I get the cone at this time. The Ukie has had the hot hand lately. Even the Euro is way on the left side.

Note that the cone has nothing to do with where the center may track. It merely represents a typical (66.7%) forecast error over the past 5 years surrounding the NHC's forecast. The cone is always the same for each storm, each advisory, all season. It should generally be ignored.