ATL: MARIA - Models

[Alyono]

The 0Z Euro is a likely recurve. What it tell us is that more easterly motion of Jose + faster motion of Maria = higher recurve chances.

A further west Jose = more likely it completes the loop fast and allows the ridge to fill back in.
Slower Maria = less interaction between her and Jose.

Fortunately for us, global models have a west bias of storms moving north, and a slow bias of storms moving WNW in the deep tropics. But we'll wait for more model cycles before making any conclusions.

unless Jose gets too far east. It needs to be in the right spot. Another Goldilocks situation like we had with Irma

[Aric Dunn]

nope back to fujiwhara ... but way south..

sorry but there is just not going to be that much of 500mb reflection of jose.. trash .. next..

[Brent]

the 168 hour frame really Euro??? lol

[wxmann_91]

The 0Z Euro is a likely recurve. What it tell us is that more easterly motion of Jose + faster motion of Maria = higher recurve chances.

A further west Jose = more likely it completes the loop fast and allows the ridge to fill back in.
Slower Maria = less interaction between her and Jose.

Fortunately for us, global models have a west bias of storms moving north, and a slow bias of storms moving WNW in the deep tropics. But we'll wait for more model cycles before making any conclusions.

unless Jose gets too far east. It needs to be in the right spot. Another Goldilocks situation like we had with Irma

Yes, that is true. I'm talking about small adjustments. Any bigger errors and Jose recurves into the westerlies without the loop back... and then we're talking about something else entirely.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro still has to deep of a system.. its all trash past 3 to 4 days....

[Aric Dunn]

that and jose has been to the right of every NHC postion all day.. and continues and nne motion.. let alone the fact its in the middle of transitioning... it wont survive the next 2 days let alone 5... lol

[Alyono]

Fijiwara? really?

[Brent]

I should just close the Euro and go to bed. This is ridiculous

[Aric Dunn]

Fijiwara? really?

yeah.. there just wont be anything left to cause that type of interaction in 6 days... hopefully after tomorrow when jose is a naked swirl the models will do better.

[Alyono]

Fijiwara? really?

yeah.. there just wont be anything left to cause that type of interaction in 6 days... hopefully after tomorrow when jose is a naked swirl the models will do better.

may need to wait 3 days for Jose to be a naked swirl

[Aric Dunn]

Fijiwara? really?

yeah.. there just wont be anything left to cause that type of interaction in 6 days... hopefully after tomorrow when jose is a naked swirl the models will do better.

may need to wait 3 days for Jose to be a naked swirl

fair enough.. just given current shear and it will be running into cooler water in 24 hours... the decline of convection occurring now does not bode well for it maintaining past 2 to 3 days

[GCANE]

GFS 120 hrs out shows UL vort shredding Jose.
IMHO, Jose intensity may be over forecasted.
Likely implications on Maria's track thru the Bahamas.

[jlauderdal]

GFS 120 hrs out shows UL vort shredding Jose.
IMHO, Jose intensity may be over forecasted.
Likely implications on Maria's track thru the Bahamas.

guess will see if jose is that deep in 5 days or even 3 days

[GCANE]

00Z GFS on 9/26 00Z
Run-to-run showing mid-level ridge building to Maria's NE.

[Frank2]

Based on the model runs since early yesterday, the NHC now has enough confidence in a recurve east of the Bahamas. During Irma's approach it was apparent Florida would be affected. Not so now.

[Voltron]

That ridge based on what JB was saying is indeed growing back stronger it appears. No short wave or anything that would prevent Maria from deflecting into the EC. Jose probably lasts till friday but just a small shell of what he was.

[jlauderdal]

00Z GFS on 9/26 00Z
Run-to-run showing mid-level ridge building to Maria's NE.

this seems a bit more realistic although jose seems to be sticking around too long...NC in the strike zone, although based on the well known errors at this range plus the higher than usual uncertainty due to jose gulf to maine still in the hunt for sure

[otowntiger]

Based on the model runs since early yesterday, the NHC now has enough confidence in a recurve east of the Bahamas. During Irma's approach it was apparent Florida would be affected. Not so now.

Agreed Frank. I could be wrong but when Irma was in this general location she was pointed toward us in the NHC cone 5 day forecast, right? I know there is a lot of uncertainty with what Jose is going to do but it seems that whatever it does Maria will very likely stay well to the east of Florida at least. I think points north are still in play depending on the down stream steering currents. But I will be surprised if there are big enough shifts in th models and more importantly the NHC track to threaten Florida.

[NDG]

Big shift east by the Euro's ensembles after day 4-5 compared to previous run.

[NDG]

nope back to fujiwhara ... but way south..

sorry but there is just not going to be that much of 500mb reflection of jose.. trash .. next..

What are the chances of Fujiwara happening between these two systems, I don't ever recall seeing that in the Atlantic Basin, at least recently.