bella_may wrote:I remember the early Katrina models showed it curving up in the big bend of Florida. Not buying it
That was 12 years ago.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
bella_may wrote:I remember the early Katrina models showed it curving up in the big bend of Florida. Not buying it
lando wrote:If this run verified to a tee, 3 of the most populated counties in Florida would be almost destroyed, specifically by the western side of the eye wall, and a lot of the population of the immediate areas are lower income around the lake and unfortunately loss of life may be record breaking; god forbid the dyke failed...
CrazyC83 wrote:Steve wrote:HDGator wrote:
The entire Florida Peninsula hit with hurricane (64kt) + winds.
This would be CATASTROPHIC!
Someone used the term earlier "A Generational Storm".
I'd like to stop this ride and get off. PLEASE!
That was me. 2017, with our second Cat 4 hit in the wings, is getting to be a generational year as well. For those of us who are semi old, 1985, 1988, 1998, 2004 and 2005 are some of the benchmark years with 2004 and 2005 both featuring multiple major hits. 2017 looks to join that this weekend. We still have a good 45 days of prime season ahead too. Probably belongs in the "Indicators for 2017" thread on Talkin' Tropics. But the indicators to me are there are spots near the US Coast that can support extremely powerful hurricanes.
There's no reason why you can't get a very intense hurricane as late as November as well - 1932 a classic example...
bella_may wrote:I remember the early Katrina models showed it curving up in the big bend of Florida. Not buying it
Steve wrote:FixySLN wrote:I have a hard time buying that NW drive after the Southern Florida landfall. Wouldn't it be more likely that it run back up North through east coast looking for some more energy? Especially taking the cold air into consideration...Nags Head/Va Beach braces for whatever is left of her.
*Disclaimer*
I'm no Met...I don't even like making "predictions". I sometimes post my thoughts for others to see and am in NO way a voice of experience or professionalism.
It's got to go west at some point anyway. Aric was showing the cutoff down in the lower MS Valley which acts to draw it up and pinwheel it back while a surface high from Canada comes down from the north. Straight physics that even under the last run where it went back out and came in near GA/SC Border, it came up and hooked west toward southern Indiana. ECMWF shows it as well but it comes in farther north and on a NW heading through the SE US toward WV/SE Ohio.
More 18Z runs should be out soon.
GeneratorPower wrote:lando wrote:If this run verified to a tee, 3 of the most populated counties in Florida would be almost destroyed, specifically by the western side of the eye wall, and a lot of the population of the immediate areas are lower income around the lake and unfortunately loss of life may be record breaking; god forbid the dyke failed...
I think "destroyed" is a bit much. Not likely to see Cat 5 damage over a three county area.
Ken711 wrote:How could it maintain that intensity once it landfalls?
AutoPenalti wrote:bella_may wrote:I remember the early Katrina models showed it curving up in the big bend of Florida. Not buying it
That was 12 years ago.
plasticup wrote:Ken711 wrote:How could it maintain that intensity once it landfalls?
Florida is flat, wet, and not that different from the ocean.
I'm being a little facetious, but only a little. The everglades and such aren't as terrible for a hurricane as the Costa Rican mountains.
GCANE wrote:Inside 144 hrs now with a little bounce back east.
IMHO, this is going to start to gel now.
At DMAX.
FixySLN wrote:Steve wrote:FixySLN wrote:I have a hard time buying that NW drive after the Southern Florida landfall. Wouldn't it be more likely that it run back up North through east coast looking for some more energy? Especially taking the cold air into consideration...Nags Head/Va Beach braces for whatever is left of her.
*Disclaimer*
I'm no Met...I don't even like making "predictions". I sometimes post my thoughts for others to see and am in NO way a voice of experience or professionalism.
It's got to go west at some point anyway. Aric was showing the cutoff down in the lower MS Valley which acts to draw it up and pinwheel it back while a surface high from Canada comes down from the north. Straight physics that even under the last run where it went back out and came in near GA/SC Border, it came up and hooked west toward southern Indiana. ECMWF shows it as well but it comes in farther north and on a NW heading through the SE US toward WV/SE Ohio.
More 18Z runs should be out soon.
You may very well be correct, though I have to say I hope not. Historically, the majority of early September systems with a northern jog prior to Florida landfall tend to continue on a NNE track. The exceptions to this rule have been systems making landfall south of Miami and continuing into the Gulf. They can do anything unpredictable at anything regardless of what's going on...we're all just guessing at this point. I'm just using past precedent as reference. Hope it isn't taken as arrogance, argumentative, or ignorant.
Ken711 wrote:GCANE wrote:Inside 144 hrs now with a little bounce back east.
IMHO, this is going to start to gel now.
At DMAX.
You mean an east trend?
ronjon wrote:With the GFS run, Key Largo and Homestead would likely be inundated with massive storm surge. The metro areas would sustain high wind damage but surge may be small. Lake O dike could fail which could cause catastrophic flooding for those communities around the lake. Further north, wind damage, heavy rainfall, and tornadoes would be major impacts all the way up to JAX.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests