ATL: IRMA - Models

[Steve]

This is bad. NAM out to 66 hours. Absent a miracle we could probably all use, the question is one or two landfalls? Seriously. There goes the trough which we knew was going to happen, but it's 6 hours later now. Odds are the US is probably going to get hit by a 4 or 5.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=527

[RL3AO]

Well from the models, it appears NC is pretty much clear for the most part aside from the normal rain and such. I just dont see a turn to NC or SC anytime soon

This would be very incorrect. The Carolina's could be significantly impacted after it turns northward.

[Ken711]

Well from the models, it appears NC is pretty much clear for the most part aside from the normal rain and such. I just dont see a turn to NC or SC anytime soon

And you could be very wrong. Trending North and East could just as easily occur as west with more atmospheric data factored, especially this far out.

[Bamagirl2408]

I have been following pretty closely but I have not a lick of input of knowledge. In trying to catch up All I see is comments "more east" the next one " more west "and a ton of ensembles and models I cant tell if they are old or new lol. #newbie

[facemane]

Unfortunately, you will never find this because it doesnt exist. The nhc did not release cones back then. They only released data points, similar to what you find in the discussion, and even then they only went out 3 days back then.

Fwiw, it was a weather channel special. it was hosted by Brian Norcross. He was a former director of the NHC. He used the info available in 1992 vs today and created the cone. I know it's not exact science,but I do respect his opinion,and should everyone else

[Steve]

You're right Ken. It could. But so far, this sucks:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=27

Ignore the position of Irma due to NAM South of 25N. It's hard to ask for a worse setup. I hope it's a fluke run.

[Voltron]

Well from the models, it appears NC is pretty much clear for the most part aside from the normal rain and such. I just dont see a turn to NC or SC anytime soon

And you could be very wrong. Trending North and East could just as easily occur as west with more atmospheric data factored, especially this far out.

Wait I thought it was a FL thing now??? Thiught the N turn was up the center or in the gulf

[Ken711]

Well from the models, it appears NC is pretty much clear for the most part aside from the normal rain and such. I just dont see a turn to NC or SC anytime soon

And you could be very wrong. Trending North and East could just as easily occur as west with more atmospheric data factored, especially this far out.

Wait I thought it was a FL thing now??? Thiught the N turn was up the center or in the gulf

Long range forecasts are subject to change, and will change.

[RL3AO]

Well from the models, it appears NC is pretty much clear for the most part aside from the normal rain and such. I just dont see a turn to NC or SC anytime soon

And you could be very wrong. Trending North and East could just as easily occur as west with more atmospheric data factored, especially this far out.

Wait I thought it was a FL thing now??? Thiught the N turn was up the center or in the gulf

Quite a few of the ensembles have this in the western Atlantic still.

[Steve]

I have been following pretty closely but I have not a lick of input of knowledge. In trying to catch up All I see is comments "more east" the next one " more west "and a ton of ensembles and models I cant tell if they are old or new lol. #newbie

LOL. Yo bamagirl. Quick primer if you're in Central time:

00Z = 7pm
06Z - 1am
12Z - 7am
18Z - 1pm

NAMs come out around 9. GFS comes out around 10:35. CMC comes out close to 11. NAVGEM filters in around 12. European comes in around 12:45. Some come out every 6 hours, some every 12. There are lots of other models that come out in 1 hour intervals and whatever, but those are more short term. Just watch. It's the model thread. NAM was awful for America. GFS is up next.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Well from the models, it appears NC is pretty much clear for the most part aside from the normal rain and such. I just dont see a turn to NC or SC anytime soon

And you could be very wrong. Trending North and East could just as easily occur as west with more atmospheric data factored, especially this far out.

Wait I thought it was a FL thing now??? Thiught the N turn was up the center or in the gulf

It sounds like you don't understand that the models are a prediction based on the information currently gathered by the models. As new information comes in, the models can change. When you are more than 3 days out, it is best to think of the models as a general area and direction. Never use them as a pinpoint on where the storm WILL go. That won't be known for sure, until the storm GOES there.

[birddogsc]

Mid-level energy from the WPAC storm goes up the CA Coast, low spins up in the BoC and the Atlantic High is nosing in over the top of Irma not letting her turn up.

Would that be called a thumb ridge?

[sma10]

You're right Ken. It could. But so far, this sucks:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=27

Ignore the position of Irma due to NAM South of 25N. It's hard to ask for a worse setup. I hope it's a fluke run.

Do we know if the 0z NAM had the all the newer data collected today? And if so, do we see anything different yet from previous NAM runs?

[sponger]

the old timers are acting like it was 25 years ago when a 3 day forecast was unreliable. The reality today is that a 5 day forecast is about as reliable as a 36 hour forecast was then. Very unlikely to bomb completely with this synoptic setup less than 5 days. It takes a Joaquin to cause a total bust these days

I was looking for an image and was unable to find it. If anyone can help, I'd appreciate it. It was the 5 day cone for Hurricane Andrew in 1992 vs what would have been the cone today. The difference was drastic. IIRC, the 5 day cone in 1992 had Andrew hitting anywhere from Cuba to the Carolinas. The 5 day cone today
narrowed it from the Florida straits to central Fla. The science is definitely improving the performance of these models.

Unfortunately, you will never find this because it doesnt exist. The nhc did not release cones back then. They only released data points, similar to what you find in the discussion, and even then they only went out 3 days back then.

Andrew struck at 5am on 8/24/92. If you'd like to read the discussion from exactly 72 hrs prior to landfall:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... al0492.018

Edit: I've reread your post and see what you might be asking for. A couple of years ago, the NHC reran Andrew synoptics with modern computing to see how they would perform. I believe though it was less than 72 hrs out though. The performance was much better than 92. I think the consensus from 48hr out was Palm Beach.

My favorite line is, "may indicate a more West Northwest motion, as indicated by the Bam models. How far we have come!

[Steve]

Mid-level energy from the WPAC storm goes up the CA Coast, low spins up in the BoC and the Atlantic High is nosing in over the top of Irma not letting her turn up.

Would that be called a thumb ridge?

Yeah. It is. I messed up because I meant to post that brown/orange/yellow/white link at 700 that showed like 4 lows spinning in the shape of a mouth across the map field. It was an odd situation I wanted to point out besides it being horrific.

[smw1981]

Can someone please post the NAM as it's coming or just tell us what it is showing? I am at work and can't really look..

Thanks!

[tolakram]

Well from the models, it appears NC is pretty much clear for the most part aside from the normal rain and such. I just dont see a turn to NC or SC anytime soon

And you could be very wrong. Trending North and East could just as easily occur as west with more atmospheric data factored, especially this far out.

Wait I thought it was a FL thing now??? Thiught the N turn was up the center or in the gulf

How can you make a definitive statement that NC is in the clear and not know what all the models are saying? The latest Euro brushes south Florida and heads up to a landfall in South Carolina.

[tgenius]

I'm pretty tired from staying up last night for GFS but with the new data fed into the 00z run I'll stay up to watch and pray it shifts away.

[sponger]

the old timers are acting like it was 25 years ago when a 3 day forecast was unreliable. The reality today is that a 5 day forecast is about as reliable as a 36 hour forecast was then. Very unlikely to bomb completely with this synoptic setup less than 5 days. It takes a Joaquin to cause a total bust these days

I was looking for an image and was unable to find it. If anyone can help, I'd appreciate it. It was the 5 day cone for Hurricane Andrew in 1992 vs what would have been the cone today. The difference was drastic. IIRC, the 5 day cone in 1992 had Andrew hitting anywhere from Cuba to the Carolinas. The 5 day cone today
narrowed it from the Florida straits to central Fla. The science is definitely improving the performance of these models.

Unfortunately, you will never find this because it doesnt exist. The nhc did not release cones back then. They only released data points, similar to what you find in the discussion, and even then they only went out 3 days back then.

Andrew struck at 5am on 8/24/92. If you'd like to read the discussion from exactly 72 hrs prior to landfall:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... al0492.018

Edit: I've reread your post and see what you might be asking for. A couple of years ago, the NHC reran Andrew synoptics with modern computing to see how they would perform. I believe though it was less than 72 hrs out though. The performance was much better than 92. I think the consensus from 48hr out was Palm Beach.

My favorite line is, "...may indicate a more West Northwest motion, as indicated by the Bam models." How far we have come!

[sma10]

I was looking for an image and was unable to find it. If anyone can help, I'd appreciate it. It was the 5 day cone for Hurricane Andrew in 1992 vs what would have been the cone today. The difference was drastic. IIRC, the 5 day cone in 1992 had Andrew hitting anywhere from Cuba to the Carolinas. The 5 day cone today
narrowed it from the Florida straits to central Fla. The science is definitely improving the performance of these models.

Unfortunately, you will never find this because it doesnt exist. The nhc did not release cones back then. They only released data points, similar to what you find in the discussion, and even then they only went out 3 days back then.

Andrew struck at 5am on 8/24/92. If you'd like to read the discussion from exactly 72 hrs prior to landfall:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_w ... al0492.018

Edit: I've reread your post and see what you might be asking for. A couple of years ago, the NHC reran Andrew synoptics with modern computing to see how they would perform. I believe though it was less than 72 hrs out though. The performance was much better than 92. I think the consensus from 48hr out was Palm Beach.

My favorite line is, "may indicate a more West Northwest motion, as indicated by the Bam models. How far we have come!

Clearly you can see how in days of yore people used to say that "hurricanes have a mind of their own". Thats certainly how I'd feel today if the NHC were still predicting based on the Bams. We'd wonder why they could never get a single forecast even close!