ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[RL3AO]

it has now moved under that new recent convection...

I was wondering if this would happen once it started merging with the pouch/vorticity to the NW much higher low and mid level moisture out ahead of it now because of that lobe. the SAL is slowly thinning out over time and now with SW wind in the mid and upper levels though still really light and favorable for development.. the only thing holding this back is the SAL/dry air.

It doesn't seem to be getting hit quite as badly in the 600 to 800mb layer anymore.

[GCANE]

it has now moved under that new recent convection...

I was wondering if this would happen once it started merging with the pouch/vorticity to the NW much higher low and mid level moisture out ahead of it now because of that lobe. the SAL is slowly thinning out over time and now with SW wind in the mid and upper levels though still really light and favorable for development.. the only thing holding this back is the SAL/dry air.

Starting to get small pop ups in the dry slot to its west.
200mb is really nice a clear,

[Aric Dunn]

it has now moved under that new recent convection...

I was wondering if this would happen once it started merging with the pouch/vorticity to the NW much higher low and mid level moisture out ahead of it now because of that lobe. the SAL is slowly thinning out over time and now with SW wind in the mid and upper levels though still really light and favorable for development.. the only thing holding this back is the SAL/dry air.

It doesn't seem to be getting hit quite as badly in the 600 to 800mb layer anymore. [img]https://i.imgur.com/TPT0NF9.png[/mg]

ever so slightly. but as the SAL moves farther away from the source and is continuously filtered out by what convection does form the atmosphere will slowly regain its heat capacity.

[Sciencerocks]

Increased

07/2345 UTC 17.1N 52.2W T1.5/1.5 04L -- Atlantic

[RL3AO]

This is what the GFS shows near the system in three days to the east of the Bahamas. Some dry mid-levels, but better lapse rates once the SAL inversion is lifted out.

[Sciencerocks]

This is what the GFS shows near the system in three days to the east of the Bahamas. Some dry mid-levels, but better lapse rates once the SAL inversion is lifted out.

Do you think it has a chance at redevelopment?

[RL3AO]

Do you think it has a chance at redevelopment?

A chance? Sure. I just don't know if its 1%, 5% or 20%.

[Gustywind]

Surprising thing to note that given SSD TD 4 is again alive ... look at these t numbers!

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
07/2345 UTC 17.1N 52.2W T1.5/1.5 04L
07/1745 UTC 16.1N 50.5W T1.0/1.0 04L

[RL3AO]

Nothing from the TWO (maybe surprisingly). Also, the first time I've noticed a TWO from David Zalinsky. Must be vacation time at NHC.


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jul 7 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the
remnants of Tropical Depression Four, located well to the east of
the Lesser Antilles.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinski

[gatorcane]

Upper level winds look favorable as this invest nears the Bahamas but what will be left of it and how much dry air will be around?

[Nimbus]

Figured we would get another puff tonight.

30 frames of water vapor loop appear to show the shear might be providing some convective lift tonight. The TUTT has continued drifting north so I guess we should leave the thread open even if the NHC has no comment.

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

[OuterBanker]

Apparently , death becomes td04. I assume that because the NHC had issued the last statement on td04 it is officially dead so if the remnants reform or regenerate it will become the 05. Is that right?

[Hurricaneman]

Apparently , death becomes td04. I assume that because the NHC had issued the last statement on td04 it is officially dead so if the remnants reform or regenerate it will become the 05. Is that right?

No because it's the same system but if it splits or something it would get a new number

[weathaguyry]

If this starts to flare up again, would it become an Invest again?

[AutoPenalti]

If this starts to flare up again, would it become an Invest again?

I doubt it, it has to sustain convection first.
It's currently at DMAX, and model support is relatively lackluster.

If this holds however, there's a very slight chance it may be a 50/70 by the 8am TWO.

[Sciencerocks]

If this starts to flare up again, would it become an Invest again?

If the nhc feels for modeling reasons or "if" its chances improve for development...Maybe.

[weathaguyry]

If this starts to flare up again, would it become an Invest again?

I doubt it, it has to sustain convection first.
It's currently at DMAX, and model support is relatively lackluster.

If this holds however, there's a very slight chance it may be a 50/70 by the 8am TWO.

I mean if it does become Invest worthy, would it become 94L, 95L, or would it be tagged as Remnants of Four?

[AutoPenalti]

If this starts to flare up again, would it become an Invest again?

I doubt it, it has to sustain convection first.
It's currently at DMAX, and model support is relatively lackluster.

If this holds however, there's a very slight chance it may be a 50/70 by the 8am TWO.

I mean if it does become Invest worthy, would it become 94L, 95L, or would it be tagged as Remnants of Four?

Well, I would logically assume it would be retagged as 94L. Unless it splits ofcourse.

[HurricaneA]

If this starts to flare up again, would it become an Invest again?

I doubt it, it has to sustain convection first.
It's currently at DMAX, and model support is relatively lackluster.

If this holds however, there's a very slight chance it may be a 50/70 by the 8am TWO.

I mean if it does become Invest worthy, would it become 94L, 95L, or would it be tagged as Remnants of Four?

I believe it would be tagged 95L, as Bonnie of last year was tagged 91L the first run, and 92L the second run.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS seems to be showing this as a trackable entity and possibly the start of regeneration at 60hrs and based on the energy this thing still seems to have, also seems to have convection near or over the supposed center, this is definitely not dead and seems to be coming back to life so I wouldn't stop watching this as by the time it gets to 70w it could be something that could be a tropical cyclone by then