ATL: MARIA - Models

[Ken711]

Big shift east by the Euro's ensembles after day 4-5 compared to previous run.

Tomorrow probably a big shift west. Too much uncertainty with Maria.

[jlauderdal]

nope back to fujiwhara ... but way south..

sorry but there is just not going to be that much of 500mb reflection of jose.. trash .. next..

What are the chances of Fujiwara happening between these two systems, I don't ever recall seeing that in the Atlantic Basin, at least recently.

remote at best which is why we are all so uncertain about these model runs among other factors which leads to uncertainity

[ronjon]

Track of Maria still uncertain. We're talking about days 6-8 here. Jose may indeed create enough of a weakness for Maria to avoid a CONUS hit but too many variables still in play more than a week out. The longwave pattern is still dangerous for the US coast with deep trough out west and strong ridging over the eastern hàlf of the country.

[Ken711]

The models seem to be taking Maria a little north of the NHC track so far.

[tolakram]

Here's the 0Z Euro track through the Islands.

[Blown Away]

NE Caribbean going to take another hit, but looking better for Bahamas/CONUS...

[tolakram]

Over Puerto Rico and very close to DR. Horrible horrible year so far.

[Aric Dunn]

Appears the HWRF is doing well with the intensity of Maria thus far.. lets hope the CAT 5 into PR is wrong...

[Voltron]

Big shift east by the Euro's ensembles after day 4-5 compared to previous run.

I think we are seeing false models based on the belief Jose will be there

[RL3AO]

I have no idea what to expect Jose's mid-level signature to look in in five days. The models keep it quite strong, but it also appears to be transitioning well before NHC forecasts. Just watch for changes in the next day or two of model runs.

[Stangfriik]

Appears the HWRF is doing well with the intensity of Maria thus far.. lets hope the CAT 5 into PR is wrong...

Had a dream last night that this model showed it skirting the coast like Matthew lol

[DESTRUCTION5]

Track of Maria still uncertain. We're talking about days 6-8 here. Jose may indeed create enough of a weakness for Maria to avoid a CONUS hit but too many variables still in play more than a week out. The longwave pattern is still dangerous for the US coast with deep trough out west and strong ridging over the eastern hàlf of the country.

Looking like only way this could realistically hit the SE coast at this point would be a stall loop which is not impossible if gets trapped. Otherwise modeling is honing in on a escape route this morning.

[Evil Jeremy]

Track of Maria still uncertain. We're talking about days 6-8 here. Jose may indeed create enough of a weakness for Maria to avoid a CONUS hit but too many variables still in play more than a week out. The longwave pattern is still dangerous for the US coast with deep trough out west and strong ridging over the eastern hàlf of the country.

Looking like only way this could realistically hit the SE coast at this point would be a stall loop which is not impossible if gets trapped. Otherwise modeling is honing in on a escape route this morning.

The escape route is due to the models expecting Jose to remain both intense and in the area 5 days from now, to keep the doorway out to sea open for Maria. The question is if Jose will really still be around after a few days, which many are doubting.

[Voltron]

Track of Maria still uncertain. We're talking about days 6-8 here. Jose may indeed create enough of a weakness for Maria to avoid a CONUS hit but too many variables still in play more than a week out. The longwave pattern is still dangerous for the US coast with deep trough out west and strong ridging over the eastern hàlf of the country.

Some sanity!
Looking like only way this could realistically hit the SE coast at this point would be a stall loop which is not impossible if gets trapped. Otherwise modeling is honing in on a escape route this morning.

The escape route is due to the models expecting Jose to remain both intense and in the area 5 days from now, to keep the doorway out to sea open for Maria. The question is if Jose will really still be around after a few days, which many are doubting.

[gatorcane]

There might be some uncertainty with Jose beyond 5 days but the models shifted east overnight making Florida looks even less likely from taking a hit from Maria. Thank you Jose for opening up the huge weakness since there was no Eastern CONUS trough around.

[tolakram]

I think the GFS solution at least seems reasonable, with Jose getting trapped and rapidly weakening. There's pretty much nothing left by the time Maria gets there.

[Aric Dunn]

I think the GFS solution at least seems reasonable, with Jose getting trapped and rapidly weakening. There's pretty much nothing left by the time Maria gets there.

Yeah that is slightly better.

still survies a few days over low 60 degree water to long.. but we will see

[knotimpaired]

Appears the HWRF is doing well with the intensity of Maria thus far.. lets hope the CAT 5 into PR is wrong...

Vieques here, almost ground zero. Please do not tell me it is predicted to be a Cat 5, please......

[RL3AO]

Appears the HWRF is doing well with the intensity of Maria thus far.. lets hope the CAT 5 into PR is wrong...

Vieques here, almost ground zero. Please do not tell me it is predicted to be a Cat 5, please......

It's not predicted to be, but a high-end category 4 or a category 5 could still happen for Puerto Rico/USVI.

[Aric Dunn]

Appears the HWRF is doing well with the intensity of Maria thus far.. lets hope the CAT 5 into PR is wrong...

Vieques here, almost ground zero. Please do not tell me it is predicted to be a Cat 5, please......

It is within the realm of possibilities..HWRF does bring it to one... the offical NHC does not..