ATL: NATE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Sounds like sheared TS in GOM in the future... JMHO

[slamdaddy]

hey...
that's where I am

[Aric Dunn]

It is now ( even more ) very clear the system in the florida straights has closed off ... so now the question is how much of an effect will it have on "Nate"

[Blown Away]

It is now ( even more ) very clear the system in the florida straights has closed off ... so now the question is how much of an effect will it have on "Nate"

Seems NHC starting to back off the idea of a great environment in the GOM just a little...

[tarheelprogrammer]

NAM models flipped quite a bit stronger this run compared to the 18z run. Could it be the start of a trend? I surely hope not.

[mph101]

If this forms into Nate it will move east of the models. Its insane to not use logic regardless of the computer models man use your common sense and years of data. This storm is not a threat to the western range , continental fronts have already effected these areas to the west they are out of October hurricanes man, geeezzz. As Irma was to far west and speared east by the the trough which was easily seen Sat night and there was no way by Sunday AM that IRMA would skirt the gulf coast to Tampa. Man use your eyes and stop watching stupid computer models. This storm will move east towards Panama City or the Big Bend if it develops . stop watching the models and man use your eyes. Its October.

[NDG]

I had no idea the Island of San Andres has a radar, pretty good, better than the Cuban and Mexican radars.

[Alyono]

GFS DISSIPATES this over Central America while developing what would be Nate in the Gulf

[Aric Dunn]

I had no idea the Island of San Andres has a radar, pretty good, better than the Cuban and Mexican radars.

well dang neither did i.... nice location but seems random..

[Aric Dunn]

assuming the system in the florida straights continues to organize we can disregard any model that does not show a closed system in the florida straights.... 06z and 12z runs will be interesting.

[Alyono]

assuming the system in the florida straights continues to organize we can disregard any model that does not show a closed system in the florida straights.... 06z and 12z runs will be interesting.

the Florida Straits system is not going to be a closed low

[Alyono]

regenerates once it moves into the Gulf of Honduras

[Aric Dunn]

assuming the system in the florida straights continues to organize we can disregard any model that does not show a closed system in the florida straights.... 06z and 12z runs will be interesting.

the Florida Straits system is not going to be a closed low

Very likely already is...will know in a few hours. all ( useful) indications are that it is..

[slamdaddy]

Don't look like GFS is getting onboard with Nate much at all.

[Alyono]

Uccellini, please go back to the old version of the GFS. This model is utter garbage

[Alyono]

looking at some of the soundings on Levi's site, it appears there may be temperature inversions in the GFS.

[slamdaddy]

Can we get a tax refund for bad product perhaps ?

[Aric Dunn]

Well at least in terms of the system in the straights the GFS is handling it decent.. the rest has so much feedback its a waste..

[pcolaman]

NAM 00Z moves close to the Mouth of the Mississippi then has a hit toward Jackson/Mobile Counties 980s on 12km. Then it moves ENE across Escambia County, FL where the run ends 84 hours or 7pm Sunday local time. This looks like a reasonable solution to me and is similar to the CMC and NAVGEM runs this morning.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=190

Looks like an Ivan run at the end. Only the latter approach to land that is.

[Alyono]

Canadian says Nate will be the system by Florida

Waiting for the UKMET now to give a reasonable solution