ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Happy to say water levels significantly lower this morning at this location.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/YASbYUZFccF?utm_campaign=ustre.am&utm_source=ustre.am%2F1rAmM&utm_medium=social&utm_content=20170827055058

[srainhoutx]

Just an FYI for folks in and around the West side of Houston. Jeff is reporting that water in Addicks and Baker Reservoirs may overtop spillways by 7:00 PM CDT this evening...even with the controlled dam releases that started at 2:00 AM. Also Lake Conroe has reached the highest level ever recorded. Dam release has commenced to protect the integrity of the Dam. Brazos River should crest 5 Ft higher than the highest level ever recorded last year. Same look likely for the Colorado River and possibly the Trinity River. East Fork of the San Jacinto River will likely exceed the 1994 Flood Event putting Lake Houston in jeopardy as well. It will be weeks before we are out of a flooding threat across SE Texas.

[sphelps8681]

I realize Houston is more important, with many more people, but we are getting hammered in The Golden Triangle area. Roads closed. Schools closed. Most businesses closed. Heavy rain for hours on top of all of the other disastrous rains the past day or so. A lot of flooding and it's still coming down.

And no electricity! Ugh

Woke this morning and know they are talking about sw la. I don't think there is an in between.

[funster]

Not fair of Harvey to make a refueling stop. That's cheating.

[sphelps8681]

I realize Houston is more important, with many more people, but we are getting hammered in The Golden Triangle area. Roads closed. Schools closed. Most businesses closed. Heavy rain for hours on top of all of the other disastrous rains the past day or so. A lot of flooding and it's still coming down.

And no electricity! Ugh

Woke this morning and now they are talking about sw la. I don't think there is an in between.

[xironman]

I can't really tell on radar - has the center emerged back over water yet? I know it's close.

With emat2 having a an E wind http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=emat2
SGNT2 having a SSE wind http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sgnt2
and KBQX a SSW http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=kbqx

You would have to think the surface low is just offshore. Hopefully the unfavorable conditions mention by the NHC will restrict any redevelopment

[Nolachick504]

Feeder Band is really cranking in the GOM
NOLA may be getting hit earlier than I thought.

I live in NOLA. Is there any chance of us flooding here?

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/902107705946644480




NWS WPC ✔ @NWSWPC
WPC's latest update on rainfall threat with #Harvey
5:56 AM - Aug 28, 2017

[Sanibel]

Good example of a tropical system releasing its energy to the outer bands as it unwinds...

[GCANE]

Feeder Band is really cranking in the GOM
NOLA may be getting hit earlier than I thought.

I live in NOLA. Is there any chance of us flooding here?

From what I see on a few models, it'll be heavy rain.
Flooding is dependant on a lot of factors.
Best to check local NWS for details.

[GCANE]

From what I can tell from Dopplar radar, center seems to be offshore, east of Rockport.
Some small popups starting to form around it.
If these persist and grow, we'll know soon enough.

[MBryant]

I realize Houston is more important, with many more people, but we are getting hammered in The Golden Triangle area. Roads closed. Schools closed. Most businesses closed. Heavy rain for hours on top of all of the other disastrous rains the past day or so. A lot of flooding and it's still coming down.

And no electricity! Ugh

Woke this morning and know they are talking about sw la. I don't think there is an in between.

Yep. We, and about 5 million neighbors live in that "unpopulated" area between Houston and New Orleans...

BTW, flooding at my house (lived here since 1960) has made it to the previous high water mark. It has never reached my slab, but it's threatening now with more rain and up river damn releases both possible and probable.

[Aric Dunn]

Well good news is. .. its been offshore for a few hours and no explsion of convection.

Currently its barely offshore. Sw of freeport

there is some increase in radar returns however. keeping the rain over houston area

[tolakram]

SLIDER loop
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=944.5&y=1017&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[jlauderdal]

WV satellite loop shows dryer moving into Houston but radar shows a different story, may not be the torrential rains from high reaching thunderstorm clouds it got Friday night but shallow tropical rains can still dump a copious amount of rains.
GFS & NAM this morning show a not so good looking forecast for SE TX the next couple of days.

that dryer air is being pushed south and west away from houston..the models are on it and have been good with precip amounts

[MississippiWx]

Well good news is. .. its been offshore for a few hours and no explsion of convection.

Currently its barely offshore. Sw of freeport

there is some increase in radar returns however. keeping the rain over houston area

Going to take time for development near the center. It has been losing tropical characteristics while over land. Also, the mid level and low level circulation are not stacked. Mid-level center is over land still. If Harvey can remain over water for 2-3 days, it will have a chance to re-strengthen a little more than forecast. Rain will remain the primary concern though.

[Aric Dunn]

Though I highly doubt this is fully tropical anymore.

[GCANE]

Multi Model Vort, Pressure and Surface Winds.
Center: X Marks the Spot

[nutkin517]

Now that the sun has come up, I can see that my ditches aren't even full. My part of Beaumont didn't seem to get as much as everyone else overnight. But, the majority of underpasses at I-10 and 69 in Beaumont are flooded. 90 (College St) is flooded in many parts through Beaumont. It looks like Pt Arthur is pretty much cut off unless you have a big truck. And according to the news station, the Neches River at Pt Neches rose about 2 ft over night. It is about to the top of the sidewalk at Pt Neches Park. Vidor is flooded pretty badly too.

[Aric Dunn]

I due notice that the models do show a lot of wrap around moisture .. so the dry backside will not be dry very long.