ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[nascarfan999]

How many miles wide are the TS winds I know Hurricane winds are out 50 miles from the center.....but not TS???

Latest advisory had TS winds extending up to 185 miles from the center.

[BobHarlem]

Saw a few folks mentiong going to Tampa,

NWS in Tampa put this out

 https://twitter.com/NWSTampaBay/status/905760716036198400




NWS Tampa Bay ✔ @NWSTampaBay
The forecast moves the center of #Irma up the Florida East Coast. Can I now let my guard down on the #FL west coast? Absolutely Not. #flwx
7:52 AM - Sep 7, 2017

[Laser30033003]

is that a radius or a diameter????

[flamingosun]

Regarding gas situation -
Florida's Governor Scott is getting police escorts for fuel trucks through traffic on the way to resupply gas stations

[sponger]

Does anyone have real time reports of traffic and gas situation from north Florida up into GA? Any info will be greatly appreciated.

https://fl511.com/map#camera

[BZSTORM]

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/8ubYyPP.png[/img]

Seems to be on track with a hair wobble maybe further south. Waiting with Anxiety for the next Euro run

You posted a question in the models thread that I think was intended for here. You're in Tampa, right? I am not qualified to give advice other than if it where me I'd take a mini vacation and if nothing bad happens the drive back should be no problem. It seems like Irma will go east, but you are still in the error cone and Matthew tracked well west of the 4 day forecast (but still inside the cone). Follow the snake yourself, look at the forecast drift west, decide if you're still comfortable.

Matthew graphical archive: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/graphics/al14/loop_3NLW.shtml

I will also chime in that the entry angle to Florida is different to Matthew and to put things into perspective use google earth and the ruler device to see just how narrow the peninsula really is a coast hugging storm with huge wind field is going to be rougher than Matthew was and as Tolakram pointed out the cone is important as storm can move in either direction inside it & if the cyclone actually moved west and inland, along coast by 20 miles you will still get some serious winds. Don't underestimate this storm, if you feel nervous and have been though storms before then trust your gut reaction and take the mini vacation. Saturday maybe too late to get out and flights at reasonable prices are already in short supply. And also important pay attention to your local country EOC alerts, almost all Florida county EOC's are on twitter & NHC. TV updates are all well and good but NHC has a solid history of nailing landfall within 10 mile radius but that won't be apparent till 24 hrs or less out. And wobbles can happen allot with bigger cyclones affects path by miles this is why no black track line anymore with NHC the cone is the key.

[nascarfan999]

Does anyone have real time reports of traffic and gas situation from north Florida up into GA? Any info will be greatly appreciated.

For traffic you can look below. I do not know about gas. Biggest chokepoints appear to be the turnpike between Miami and Orlando and I-75 from Tampa to Lake City/I-10. Also heavy on I-95 in various places, most notably off and on from south of Daytona up to Jacksonville.

http://www.fl511.com

[Janie2006]

Sorry, I'm just a girl!

Nothing "just" about being a girl, love. We're brilliant.

Now go get ready for the weather.

[Palmcitycane]

Quick question for anyone that knows. I'm in Palm City, near I 95 and Turnpike. If the eye passes to our East, my strongest winds would be from the E and NE? And if it passes to my West (hope not) my strongest winds would be from the S and SW?

Thanks. I'll check back for an answer. Going to finish putting up the shutters.

[flamingosun]

is that a radius or a diameter????

radius

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/SteveBowenWx/status/905769714500153344




Steve Bowen @SteveBowenWx
Today's word: deviation. Any slight shift or wobble in #Irma track could have a profound impact on scope of potential damage in the US.
8:28 AM - Sep 7, 2017

[gtalum]

is that a radius or a diameter????

That's a radius. TO be fair, though, it's the maximum extension, so probably on the right side of the storm (relative to the direction of forward motion). The TS winds likely won't extend nearly as far on the left side.

EDIT: The graphic in the post immediately before mine nicely illustrates the way the size of the wind field tends to be unbalanced between the right and left sides of the storm relative to the direction fo forward motion.

[Michele B]

I'm going to chime in here because this really cannot be repeated enough with a Category 5 hurricane staring you down.

I know we have tons of lurkers at times like these, and, being human, some folks are looking for the silver lining or are reading into the tea leaves. It's natural to not want to up-end your daily lives. However, Mark is absolutely spot-on here. Take it from us. Do not wait. There were people who decided to weather Katrina because "the house withstood Camille". And they died. Nobody could reach them. And the only thing to do was to listen at a dispatch office, horrified as the surge came in. Trust. That isn't being alarmist, it's being realistic. You cannot fool around with storms like this.

Complete all preparations and get ready to evacuate (if you plan to do so or already haven't left) now. Heed all local warnings issued by authorities. Irma is a very dangerous storm that could very easily bring catastrophic conditions wherever she goes. You folks in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina still have time. Use it wisely.

Good advice.

Someone (not sure it was this forum, maybe it was) had a recording the other day (that would make it a couple hundred pages ago!) taken from Katrina where a person "decided they didn't want to stay," and wanted to be rescued - AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM! Called 911 and said, "The water's coming in, please come rescue us."

Sadly, the dispatcher had to tell them it was too late. It would be too dangerous for anyone to go out to try to rescue them. You should listen to it, if you're in a very dangerous area and have been told so. It will help you know how bad it can get.

This does happen. Once the first bands begin to arrive at your location, the window of opportunity to leave is RAPIDLY CLOSING. Make your decision sooner rather than later. You cannot wait until conditions are too horrible....because then they will be too horrible for anyone else to come try to get to you, as well.

* * * * *

I think there needs to be a re-education of terminology about hurricanes. They always say, "When the hurricane hits...." The problem is, a hurricane doesn't HIT. It moves, creeps, slowly - ever getting stronger and stronger winds and rain bands. That *IS* the hurricane! It doesn't come on like a WAVE that crashes onto the shore. It slowly creeps in, ever closer, until the rains are too hard, and the winds are too strong to be in them....and THAT IS NOT THE TIME TO DECIDE TO LEAVE.

Now is the time.

[GCANE]

Looks like from Recon, the wind-field is expanding out.

[Michele B]

I wish this site had "Private Messaging," but it doesn't seem like it does.

Storm2k absolutely does have private messaging. I just sent you one.

Oh, right. Sorry, jason. I forgot!

I think we're all getting rattled now.

[BlueWater36]

I wish this site had "Private Messaging," but it doesn't seem like it does. Hope this doesn't break any rules....This is a personal question. How old is the house? Do you know who built it?

Built in 85. I do not know who built it. Roof was last replaced 8 or 9 years ago and retrofitted with straps.

Thanks! Sounds like a pretty safe place....especially with that extra roof work....

Just re-read your post. Something that was done to our gable roof ends, that I think helps strengthen our roof: Someone (not us!) nailed 2x4's at a 45 degree angle up in the attic - kinda like braces - from the joist up to the peak of the roof.

Sorry, I'm just a girl! I'm not sure I'm explaining it clearly enough, but anyway, knowing those braces are there makes me feel better about my gable roof (as growing up in FL, I KNOW gable roofs are not the safest ones you can have), but this can reinforce them somewhat.

That's a really good idea. I think I'm going to head to home depot and get some 2x4's.

[tolakram]

Note, this is experimental.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905779617142800384



Michael Ventrice ✔ @MJVentrice
Our Experimental Deep Thunder indicating risk for 15+ inches of rainfall in #Miami from #Irma track. We all know city floods with 1" or less
9:07 AM - Sep 7, 2017

[Janie2006]

Emergency services cannot reach you and they won't try. It isn't that they don't want to help, it's the case that they'd be putting lives and resources at grave peril that will be desperately needed following the storm. You can't get a patrol car or an ambulance through that kind of surge. It's nearly impossible, unless you have an angel on your shoulder.

[gtalum]

Honestly if I was in a surge zone, even here on the west coast, I wouldn't even contemplate staying.

[tolakram]

13:46Z