ATL: IRMA - Models

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6461 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:52 pm

Continues to the WNW, beeline towards SFL.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6462 Postby MWatkins » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:52 pm

And...ugh...the trough starts to lift out at T+60, 591DM high still sticking out over SE FL...

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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6463 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:52 pm

Subtle shortwave is passing through Montana. Let's see how this GFS run handles it.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6464 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:53 pm

Here goes the GFS with out of control intensity increases again.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6465 Postby AFWeather » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:53 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
RL3AO wrote:I don't see a big change. Height contours are maybe 20 miles further south near the base of the trough.

https://i.imgur.com/AWniUiv.gif[/img]


00z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_10.png[/img]

18z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_11.png[/img]


Do you mean to compare a 500 mb map to an 850 mb map?


Guessing he didn't, threw me off too. If the 500mb heights aren't changing much, the vorticity at 500mb probably isn't going to be drastically different, either. If so, I'm questioning the validity of the run.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6466 Postby pcolaman » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:53 pm

AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Image


Wow front is lifting out fast and hp moving back in stronger . I think this is right ?
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6467 Postby txwatcher91 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:53 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
RL3AO wrote:I don't see a big change. Height contours are maybe 20 miles further south near the base of the trough.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/AWniUiv.gif/img]



Steering and vorticity is ...
00z
Image

18z
Image


Aric, you compared 850mb vort maps with a 500mb one. That’s why it’s so different :D
Last edited by txwatcher91 on Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6468 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:53 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6469 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:55 pm

No way this misses Cuba or FL
Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6470 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:55 pm

AFWeather wrote:
RL3AO wrote:


Do you mean to compare a 500 mb map to an 850 mb map?


Guessing he didn't, threw me off too. If the 500mb heights aren't changing much, the vorticity at 500mb probably isn't going to be drastically different, either. If so, I'm questioning the validity of the run.


Yeah, it was my mistake. I had the wrong silly window open..I have to many open apparently.. :P
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6471 Postby SFLcane » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:56 pm

About to get ugly soon... :eek:
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6472 Postby RL3AO » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:56 pm

A little south of 18z. A little west of 12z. A little north of 6z. Should pretty much go into S FL again.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6473 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:56 pm

I'm seeing pretty much no difference here - status quo. At least that is the case so far.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6474 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:56 pm

At 90 hrs ridging is still strong if not a little stronger than previous run.

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6475 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:56 pm

Think this run ends up west of the 18z run. Ridging is slightly stronger so far.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6476 Postby sma10 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:57 pm

Wow, all the new data ingested and negligible track change thru 4 days so far
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6477 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:57 pm

well besides my mistake :P.. im still only focused on that cut off low that develops.. so for no sign of it.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6478 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:57 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6479 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:57 pm

Ugh this is essentially the same up to 54hrs...
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#6480 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 04, 2017 10:57 pm

Image
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