ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Callista]

Impressive, and scary. No wonder they are releasing some of the dams. Makes sense to prevent that kind of destruction.

[MBryant]

Any news on when the Red Cross is going to start sending teams in? I know they are operating shelters, of course. As far as I can tell it depends on when it's safe for relatively unskilled volunteers to respond, which as of now probably depends on the nature of the flooding?

Another question: CNN is reporting that they are deliberately opening up some dams, to let the floodwater through. What's the benefit of that, as opposed to keeping them up and hoping they hold?

Maintaining the integrity of the damns is paramount. Releases of water may cause additional flooding, but nothing near as catastrophic as a damn break.

[GCANE]

That cell that came ashore and passed over Brazosport looks interesting.
On VIS, it appears to have been a small tower.
Radar now showing it expanding as it rotates pretty close to the center.
Leading edge moving over Bay City.

[gboudx]

Email from Jeff Lindner in case you are affected or know someone:

If you are in any of the voluntary and mandatory evacuation areas in Fort Bend County….you need to leave immediately. There are pumping issues in Sienna Plantation and it is likely that some of the levees will be overtopped. Follow directions of local emergency officials

[SunnyThoughts]

KPRC.com trying to give out info for people trying to evacuate and the roads which are open/closed. Such a nightmare for all the people being evacuated, and trying to find ways to actually get out.

[tropicwatch]

Starting to look like the Houston area will not get as much of a break in the rain as they hoped for last night.

[Steve]

In a bit of good news. Cajun Navy found the floating, lifeless body of an elderly woman and was able to resuscitate her.

http://www.nola.com/outdoors/index.ssf/ ... _big-photo

[tolakram]

As far as dams go, the general issue with earthen dams, or earthen berms surrounding damns, is that any over spill will dig into the dam or berm leading to catastrophic failure and the sudden release of all the water. Under no circumstances can these be allowed to over top, even if it means flooding the surrounding area with a controlled release.

[southerngale]

Lost electricity last night. Some of my neighborhood evacuating as the water rises and still raining. Everything pretty much closed. I need to save battery life. Would someone please give brief update of what's expected here? I'm just west of Beaumont. Thanks in advance.

[Aric Dunn]

Well this is interesting... is it really doing what its doing over land..

[forecasterjack]

Houston's dry slot is in rough shape. Rapid thunderstorm development as the center moves offshore. GOES16 WV loop: https://weather.us/satellite/texas/sate ... .html#play

[ronjon]

Lost electricity last night. Some of my neighborhood evacuating as the water rises and still raining. Everything pretty much closed. I need to save battery life. Would someone please give brief update of what's expected here? I'm just west of Beaumont. Thanks in advance.

Radar returns show one thin band moving through your area now. Nothing to the south or southeast that will impact you after that for a few hours. Storm stalled near the coastline just southwest of Lake Jackson but starting to rebuild convection on its north and west sides. NHC expects slow SE movement over the next 12 hours.

[Steve]

Lost electricity last night. Some of my neighborhood evacuating as the water rises and still raining. Everything pretty much closed. I need to save battery life. Would someone please give brief update of what's expected here? I'm just west of Beaumont. Thanks in advance.

You have a few diffuse bands rotating in but most of the new ones are closer in to the center. NAM 12z gives you at least a foot of rain in the next 84 hours. HRRR out 18 hours gives you a couple of inches in that time-frame. GFS has a fine line between 6 and 12" depending on how far north you are. Heaviest rainfall looks to be about due west and WSW of Beaumont down to just north of Galveston. You're under multiple warnings (flood watch, tornado watch, coastal flood advisory, etc.) . Here' the 4 day from NWS about at the Airport.

Today
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 77. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 3 and 4 inches possible.


Tonight
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts in excess of 4 inches possible.


Tuesday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Steady temperature around 76. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible.


Tuesday Night
Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 74. Chance of precipitation is 100%.


Wednesday
Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 82. Chance of precipitation is 100%.


Wednesday Night
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 74. Windy, with a southwest wind 25 to 35 mph decreasing to 15 to 25 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.


Thursday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Southwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.


Thursday Night

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

[MBryant]

Any news on when the Red Cross is going to start sending teams in? I know they are operating shelters, of course. As far as I can tell it depends on when it's safe for relatively unskilled volunteers to respond, which as of now probably depends on the nature of the flooding?

Another question: CNN is reporting that they are deliberately opening up some dams, to let the floodwater through. What's the benefit of that, as opposed to keeping them up and hoping they hold?

Maintaining the integrity of the damns is paramount. Releases of water may cause additional flooding, but nothing near as catastrophic as a damn break.

FYI, Because of the terain, almost ll the damns are in tributaries and not stacked, so one damn failure will not impact other damns. Barker is usually a dry reservoir as is Cypress. Lake Conroe is on the San Jacinto River and is stacked above lake Houston which is also on the San Jacinto. Lake Livingston is on the Trinity River. Lake Sam Rayborne is on the Angelina River and Toledo Bend is on the Sabine River.

[GCANE]

Well this is interesting... is it really doing what its doing over land..

There is some SW to NE shear to it; but, that rotating and deepening cell very close to the better-looking CoC is indeed very interesting.

[chaser1]

Well this is interesting... is it really doing what its doing over land..

Noticing that too. I'm trying to figure if the colder tops are representative of diurnal heating or more an influence of the center being close enough to the coast to better draw in enough moisture into its core?

[artist]

Lost electricity last night. Some of my neighborhood evacuating as the water rises and still raining. Everything pretty much closed. I need to save battery life. Would someone please give brief update of what's expected here? I'm just west of Beaumont. Thanks in advance.

Stay safe, hope this helps

Flash Flood Warning for...
Jefferson County in southeastern Texas...
Hardin County in southeastern Texas...
Orange County in southeastern Texas...
Southeastern Jasper County in southeastern Texas...

* Until 545 PM CDT Monday

* At 1138 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
heavy rain has had a brief break across the region, however radar
indicates new showers trying to develop and move to the northwest.
In addition stream gauges continue to show rapid rises on area
streams from heavy rainfall overnight and this morning. Flash
flooding is already occurring and will continue into the afternoon.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Beaumont, Port Arthur, Nederland, Groves, Port Neches, Lumberton,
Vidor, Bridge City, Silsbee, Kountze, Sour Lake, Nome, Evadale,
Central Gardens, Thicket, Saratoga, Hamshire, Wildwood,
Mauriceville and Buna.

Additional rainfall amounts of one to three inches are possible in
the warned area through the afternoon with locally higher amounts.

[Aric Dunn]

Luckily there is pretty high shear at the moment.

[tolakram]

Lost electricity last night. Some of my neighborhood evacuating as the water rises and still raining. Everything pretty much closed. I need to save battery life. Would someone please give brief update of what's expected here? I'm just west of Beaumont. Thanks in advance.

Harvey is wobbling around near shore. Right now most of the outer rainbands aren't training in a single spot so I would expect periods of heavy rain but nothing prolonged, at least the way it looks right now for Beaumont. If harvey stays off shore longer, and it's supposed to, this may change. You are still in the 20"+ zone for the next 3 or 4 days.

[GCANE]

Well this is interesting... is it really doing what its doing over land..

There is some SW to NE shear to it; but, that rotating and deepening cell very close to the better-looking CoC is indeed very interesting.

I remember one time, a long while back, seeing a TC intensify in the Glades.