ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

72 hour GFS rainfall forecast.

[CrazyC83]

As far as dams go, the general issue with earthen dams, or earthen berms surrounding damns, is that any over spill will dig into the dam or berm leading to catastrophic failure and the sudden release of all the water. Under no circumstances can these be allowed to over top, even if it means flooding the surrounding area with a controlled release.

A dam break basically would be Katrina all over again. Agreed some sacrifice is needed to save most of the communities.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Well this is interesting... is it really doing what its doing over land..

There is some SW to NE shear to it; but, that rotating and deepening cell very close to the better-looking CoC is indeed very interesting.

I remember one time, a long while back, seeing a TC intensify in the Glades.

Fay 2008.

[chaser1]

Far easier to see the center on radar; looks to be over or close to Bay City?? I'm guessing that's about 5-10 miles inland only?

[Nimbus]

As far as dams go, the general issue with earthen dams, or earthen berms surrounding damns, is that any over spill will dig into the dam or berm leading to catastrophic failure and the sudden release of all the water. Under no circumstances can these be allowed to over top, even if it means flooding the surrounding area with a controlled release.

A dam break basically would be Katrina all over again. Agreed some sacrifice is needed to save most of the communities.

This was one of the communities near the reservoir this morning after the first release.

[Snowman67]

72 hour GFS rainfall forecast.

That would be devastating if it verified.

[Aric Dunn]

Far easier to see the center on radar; looks to be over or close to Bay City?? I'm guessing that's about 5-10 miles inland only?

right on top of Matagorda.

[chaser1]

As far as dams go, the general issue with earthen dams, or earthen berms surrounding damns, is that any over spill will dig into the dam or berm leading to catastrophic failure and the sudden release of all the water. Under no circumstances can these be allowed to over top, even if it means flooding the surrounding area with a controlled release.

A dam break basically would be Katrina all over again. Agreed some sacrifice is needed to save most of the communities.

(damn decisions ~~~~~~ )

[ronjon]

Winds continue to increase in Houston (12 pm CDT).

HOUSTON BUSH HVY RAIN 73 70 90 NE32G46 29.71S

[Hurricane Andrew]

So I was wrong. NYS' TF-2 is indeed spinning up to respond to Texas, per FB.

[tgenius]

What's even more incredible is I was reading that only 15% of Houston homeowners have flood insurance. Those that didn't could lose everything :/

[GCANE]

There is some SW to NE shear to it; but, that rotating and deepening cell very close to the better-looking CoC is indeed very interesting.

I remember one time, a long while back, seeing a TC intensify in the Glades.

Fay 2008.

Yup, thanks for the reminder.

[artist]

Well this is interesting... is it really doing what its doing over land..

There is some SW to NE shear to it; but, that rotating and deepening cell very close to the better-looking CoC is indeed very interesting.

I remember one time, a long while back, seeing a TC intensify in the Glades.

I know tropical storm Fay did, and I believe Katrina may have.

[MississippiWx]

Center on radar and center on visible look very similar now. If this makes it out over the water for a day or two, it has a shot to strengthen some.

[nutkin517]

Finally heard from my parents in Vidor. They have power but, my dad said they are completely flooded in their house. They are on pier-and-beam so no water is actually in the house. He is 70 and has lived in Vidor his whole life and said he has never seen water that high.

[Cuda]

What's even more incredible is I was reading that only 15% of Houston homeowners have flood insurance. Those that didn't could lose everything :/

Holy poop. That's the story here. This will RUIN thousands of families.

[GCANE]

Its an overshooting top and about to enter the water.

[chaser1]

As far as dams go, the general issue with earthen dams, or earthen berms surrounding damns, is that any over spill will dig into the dam or berm leading to catastrophic failure and the sudden release of all the water. Under no circumstances can these be allowed to over top, even if it means flooding the surrounding area with a controlled release.

A dam break basically would be Katrina all over again. Agreed some sacrifice is needed to save most of the communities.

This was one of the communities near the reservoir this morning after the first release.

Growing up in the Kendall area (Miami), that picture was pretty much a 1 or 2 times a summer "toad strangler" that as kids we looked forward to each year. "Course, we never had the flooded street every get as close as 2-3 feet from our door. Nor were we in a zone where there was a threat of a dam suddenly breaking and exacerbating the situation either.

[tolakram]

Already looks much more robust than this morning.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=944.5&y=1017&z=2&im=48&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

Speed this up, convection really starting to fine.
https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-abi?satellite=GOESEastconusband02&lat=29&lon=-96&width=1000&height=800&zoom=1&type=Animation&numframes=30&quality=92

[Aric Dunn]

The farther SE it goes the less shear there is. dry air will be a issue for it for the next 24hrs then models seem to point to there not being much. so it will have about 24 to 36 hours after the shear and dry air to so something.