ATL: IRMA - Models

[bella_may]

If the ridge keeps getting stronger and that sketchy ULL doesn't form, it's gonna be a real problem for the central gulf

[Dean4Storms]

yes this is 200 mb but it extends down to the mid levels and turn IRMA north.. that little piece of energy has to turn into this first..

I have 2 questions -any idea how fast it's moving at this point, as it crosses Lake O? And is 933mb at that location that far inland even remotely plausible? I ask out of curiosity for what we could expect here in orlando area?

Crossing over swamp and a big lake it is plausible.

[wxmann_91]

Modern global weather models didn't get as good as they are without having really good satellite data to assimilate over the oceans and sparse areas. Those extra soundings maybe made a small difference (and in some cases it could be a bigger difference), but the first guess that goes into the models is remarkably good over the oceans.

The subtle vort max that ultimately amplifies over MO/AR and forces Irma's turn is offshore BC and about 24 hr away from moving onshore. That may make a bigger difference. Notably, the last few GFS runs have been inconsistent with the position and strength of that vort max.

Basically, tomorrow night's 0Z run may be telling.

[ObsessedMiami]

East coast, west coast. Whatever. Looks like the whole peninsula gets clobbered under this huge storm in these runs

[AxaltaRacing24]

Just looking at that gives me chills.

[tolakram]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 55.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2017 0 16.6N 55.1W 955 86
1200UTC 05.09.2017 12 16.6N 57.7W 961 77
0000UTC 06.09.2017 24 17.1N 60.1W 961 74
1200UTC 06.09.2017 36 17.8N 62.8W 956 80
0000UTC 07.09.2017 48 18.8N 65.2W 955 78
1200UTC 07.09.2017 60 19.7N 67.9W 947 83
0000UTC 08.09.2017 72 20.4N 70.3W 937 92
1200UTC 08.09.2017 84 20.7N 72.7W 946 88
0000UTC 09.09.2017 96 20.8N 75.0W 946 86
1200UTC 09.09.2017 108 21.0N 77.2W 953 74
0000UTC 10.09.2017 120 21.5N 79.0W 950 71
1200UTC 10.09.2017 132 22.5N 79.9W 942 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 144 24.0N 79.7W 929 92

over Cuba, but hooks so hard it STILL misses Florida

What model/ source is this?

That's the UKMET.

[stormreader]

Will be interesting to see what the GFS ensembles show next

It was the last group of ensembles that clued us in to a track that might be slightly west. Here it is.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Sub 900 mbs has happened in that area before, or am I wrong?

[otowntiger]

Sustained hurricane force winds for pretty much the entire peninsula.

[NDG]

The way the GFS and Euro have been trending Irma may ride up the Peninsula on the west coast of FL versus the east coast by the time we get closer to a possible impact.
We'll have to watch tonight's Euro to see if the trend continues.

[RL3AO]

Sub 900 mbs has happened in that area before, or am I wrong?

1935 Labor Day hurricane hit the Keys at 892 mb.

[CrazyC83]

Sub 900 mbs has happened in that area before, or am I wrong?

Once. 1935 Labor Day hurricane.

[PTPatrick]

So I assume since all models currently show the northern turn they are all developing this cutoff low similarly? I have always gotten the sense that these cutoff lows are difficult to predict location wise 5 days in advance...or at least it feels that way in Denver when it means the difference between major upslope storm and nothing. They seem to have huge errors at times sometimes in the 5 day, sometimes meaning the difference between low over Arizona and Kansas. Am I wrong here?

[seussianagenda]

Just looking at that gives me chills.

If that were to actually happen, every trailer and old wood framed house on the FL Peninsula would be destroyed.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Sub 900 mbs has happened in that area before, or am I wrong?

1935 Labor Day hurricane hit the Keys at 892 mb.

So, though it is rare it has happened before. Hmmmmmmmm. Thanks.

[MrJames]

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 05.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 55.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2017 0 16.6N 55.1W 955 86
1200UTC 05.09.2017 12 16.6N 57.7W 961 77
0000UTC 06.09.2017 24 17.1N 60.1W 961 74
1200UTC 06.09.2017 36 17.8N 62.8W 956 80
0000UTC 07.09.2017 48 18.8N 65.2W 955 78
1200UTC 07.09.2017 60 19.7N 67.9W 947 83
0000UTC 08.09.2017 72 20.4N 70.3W 937 92
1200UTC 08.09.2017 84 20.7N 72.7W 946 88
0000UTC 09.09.2017 96 20.8N 75.0W 946 86
1200UTC 09.09.2017 108 21.0N 77.2W 953 74
0000UTC 10.09.2017 120 21.5N 79.0W 950 71
1200UTC 10.09.2017 132 22.5N 79.9W 942 83
0000UTC 11.09.2017 144 24.0N 79.7W 929 92

over Cuba, but hooks so hard it STILL misses Florida

Mapped

[otowntiger]

Just looking at that gives me chills.

Certainly hope the intensity is way off there. I can't believe it's plausible to have that low of a pressure after traveling over that much land 2-300 miles!

[SouthFLTropics]

CMC has trended South through 36 hours. Might take a direct hit on Puerto Rico

[AdamFirst]

SFWMD spaghetti plot includes new UKMET. I guess you can consider that to be an eastern outlier now.

[galaxy401]

Ouch, Naples is right in the bullseye...If it slices Florida head on, that will be really ugly.