ATL: IRMA - Models

[mcheer23]

HMON is going way overboard with intensity 232 mph....Just no. Lol.

[psyclone]

Canadian has landfall at PENSACOLA. Massive westward shift

That will awaken some folks. Do you think that's a reasonable solution?

[AxaltaRacing24]

That's a huge shift in one run by the CMC. How has the CMC been performing with this system so far? I'd have to guess that it isn't up there with the Euro. Regardless, it's one of the consensus models and that huge of an outlier would throw the TVCN off I would think.

Early on it followed the GFS with a re curve before the islands. It has shifted east and west day after day. Not the most consistent so far.

[tolakram]

There would be very little left of the middle and upper Keys if this GFS was to be correct

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/I4sJzrY.png[/img]

Please stop the dramatics. Sorry, but while this may be a large and dangerous storm the talk of utter destruction is a little over the top. Whoever gets the right eyewall is going to be hurting for sure but these GFS super low pressures cannot be believed.

Is not dramatics. At this point anything is possible, just a couple of days ago many were dismissing the idea Irma being almost a Cat 5 tonight.
Next time please PM me, I am not a little kid.

Going to leave this out here because I'm just not sure where to draw the line.

Sure, it's possible, and the UKMET does show pressure drops at the end of it's run. I'm trying to balance a real threat with fear mongering, not an easy thing to do post Harvey and the disaster it caused. The GFS has been dead wrong on these super low pressures ever since the upgrade so I think it's safe to ignore it unless another model agrees. Right now 920 looks reasonable, which is strong enough!

[eastcoastFL]

SFWMD spaghetti plot includes new UKMET. I guess you can consider that to be an eastern outlier now.

It's looking tougher for Florida to dodge Irma somehow. Still a chance though albeit a very slim chance.

[Stormcenter]

Call me a skeptical if you want but I have a hard time believing the radical north turn and the complete Florida peninsula direct hit scenario. Like I stated before if the models are showing this on Wed. then I would be very concerned in Fl. I will say though with every run it seems as though it slowly nudges landfall further west. Which would be concerning to the folks in the panhandle area of Florida. IMO

[MrJames]

Wow, CMC went from a S FL plus NC hit to the panhandle. So from an outlier to an outlier. It looked at the UK Met and said hold my beer.

[Alyono]

Canadian has landfall at PENSACOLA. Massive westward shift

That will awaken some folks. Do you think that's a reasonable solution?

absolutely not

[sma10]

The good news about trying to verify whether the CMC is out to lunch, is that there are significant differences with GFS early. As soon as early tomorrow afternoon the CMC is running way out in front of the GFS.

[SoupBone]

To what degree does intensity affect path in the models? Also, what's the initial landfall timeline?

[MississippiWx]

CMC doesn't really develop the upper level low over the Central Gulf States. It just maintains a weakness over the Central Gulf Coast rather than developing an all out upper level low that is able to direct Irma up into Florida. Upper level low remains the key.

[SFLcane]

Thx for clearing that up Alyono..

[bamajammer4eva]

Wouldn't this map be better for wind speeds inland than 850mb level? The surface winds maps on tropical tidbits always look way underdone but being this storm is so deep this may be closer.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Explains its self.

[Stormcenter]

So you are saying there is no way Irma can hit Pensacola?

Canadian has landfall at PENSACOLA. Massive westward shift

That will awaken some folks. Do you think that's a reasonable solution?

absolutely not

[stormreader]

I don't know about that major south shift of the CMC over Cuba. Hard to buy into that with the incredible consistency from the Euro and GFS. It might be a foretaste though of a stronger west ridge which could guide Irma through the Straits and farther out over the Gulf. Trying to make some sense of it.

[bella_may]

HWRF is straight wnw into the SE GOM. Too bad the model doesn't go out further

[caneman]

Wow, CMC went from a S FL plus NC hit to the panhandle. So from an outlier to an outlier. It looked at the UK Met and said hold my beer.

The CMC
Shouldn't be taken seriously with Irma. It's been all over the place. If other more reliable models showed that, I'd maybe worry then. For now, the GFS and Euro seem to be most reliable and operate almost in tandem. When the 2 more reliable models do that, you hve.to weight more heavily towards them.

[NDG]

Canadian has landfall at PENSACOLA. Massive westward shift

That will awaken some folks. Do you think that's a reasonable solution?

absolutely not

Yeah, at this point it would be hard to believe the CMC when it was so left biased with Harvey.

[eastcoastFL]

Call me a skeptical if you want but I have a hard time believing the radical north turn and the complete Florida peninsula direct hit scenario. Like I stated before if the models are showing this on Wed. then I would be very concerned in Fl. I will say though with every run it seems as though it slowly nudges landfall further west. Which would be concerning to the folks in the panhandle area of Florida. IMO

Well the GFS has actually been pretty much the exact same the last two runs. I'm not sure