ATL: IRMA - Models

[Aric Dunn]

SO the setup is pretty much the same.. that cut off low over the MS valley dive SW as IRMA shoots north..

I think the UKmet may be more east as it slows down over the terrain of cuba...

[AdamFirst]

I feel the CMC is too far west in the short term. Well beyond the 24h period it's still on a westward heading, and the NHC anticipates WNW movement to begin before then.

[stormreader]

CMC doesn't really develop the upper level low over the Central Gulf States. It just maintains a weakness over the Central Gulf Coast rather than developing an all out upper level low that is able to direct Irma up into Florida. Upper level low remains the key.

Perhaps. I wondered how much affect that system would have if it didn't materialize as some have mentioned on the board.

[bella_may]

So you are saying there is no way Irma can hit Pensacola?

That will awaken some folks. Do you think that's a reasonable solution?

absolutely not

Lol my post got deleted for saying this. No way you can rule Pensacola out yet

[sma10]

I don't know about that major south shift of the CMC over Cuba. Hard to buy into that with the incredible consistency from the Euro and GFS. It might be a foretaste though of a stronger west ridge which could guide Irma through the Straits and farther out over the Gulf. Trying to make some sense of it.

Also remember that for the uk run, this was essentially a northward shift. Prior run had it going thru all the greater antilles at a slightly lower latitude

[pcolaman]

The GFS shifted from one side of the state to the other ? So that is a westward trend still.

[Stormcenter]

Even the NHC will admit to this, nothing is off the table landfall wise. IMO

So you are saying there is no way Irma can hit Pensacola?

absolutely not

Lol my post got deleted for saying this. No way you can rule Pensacola out yet

[Stormcenter]

A big YES.

The GFS shifted from one side of the state to the other ? So that is a westward trend still.

[Blown Away]

HWRF is straight wnw into the SE GOM. Too bad the model doesn't go out further

00z running now only out to 21 hrs??

[CrazyC83]

Call me a skeptical if you want but I have a hard time believing the radical north turn and the complete Florida peninsula direct hit scenario. Like I stated before if the models are showing this on Wed. then I would be very concerned in Fl. I will say though with every run it seems as though it slowly nudges landfall further west. Which would be concerning to the folks in the panhandle area of Florida. IMO

Well the GFS has actually been pretty much the exact same the last two runs. I'm not sure

This is 5 runs in a row the GFS is within 50 miles or so.

[stormreader]

The GFS shifted from one side of the state to the other ? So that is a westward trend still.

The trend is definitely sublte, but yes, west. If I were in the big bend area of Fl, with 5 and 1/2 days before projected landfall in the keys, I would stay alert. Not going to say Pensacola at this time off that one CMC run. But any subtle shifts in mainline models could bring the storm up in to the big bend area. Not out of the question.

[stormreader]

The GFS shifted from one side of the state to the other ? So that is a westward trend still.

The trend is definitely sublte, but yes, west. If I were in the big bend area of Fl, with 5 and 1/2 days before projected landfall in the keys, I would stay alert. Not going to say Pensacola at this time off that one CMC run. But any subtle shifts in mainline models could bring the storm up in to the big bend area. Not out of the question.

And BTW, those are the kind of changes that you might expect in the 5 and 1/2 day time frame. Not much in terms of storm path and angle of approach, but could be a huge difference in actual landfall location and effects.

[SouthFloridawx]

I still think that CMC run was off. There were frames missing in the loop.

Sent from my SM-G930P using Tapatalk

[pcolaman]

Call me a skeptical if you want but I have a hard time believing the radical north turn and the complete Florida peninsula direct hit scenario. Like I stated before if the models are showing this on Wed. then I would be very concerned in Fl. I will say though with every run it seems as though it slowly nudges landfall further west. Which would be concerning to the folks in the panhandle area of Florida. IMO

Well the GFS has actually been pretty much the exact same the last two runs. I'm not sure

This is 5 runs in a row the GFS is within 50 miles or so.

A westward shift still.each time it's only anywhere from 50 to 75 miles. Still hasn't zero in as of yet. Still have 5 days for adjustments and a trend of 50 to 75 miles mean alot overall. Am I thinking this wrong ?

[tarheelprogrammer]

One thing I have noticed is that the CMC is initializing the storm at 980 mbs. Could that not have an impact on the track? Wouldn't a weaker storm move more west, as a strong storm would move more northerly when given the opportunity?

[Alyono]

Here is why the CMC is not a viable solution. Yes, we saw this with Ike. However, there was an outflow jet from Hanna imparting very strong northerly flow, which resulted in the south of west steering component. We won't have that this time. Furthermore, the CMC upper wind pattern looks off as this is not really symmetric in the model fields

[bamajammer4eva]

There is at least one other model that sends this through the gulf from the Caribbean. CFS that people use in the super long-range but not heard much about it in the short range here

[Alyono]

One thing I have noticed is that the CMC is initializing the storm at 980 mbs. Could that not have an impact on the track? Wouldn't a weaker storm move more west, as a strong storm would move more northerly when given the opportunity?

Why Irma is about to plow over the Leewards is because it has been so strong. The deep layer ridging affected it more. In the short term, the CMC may occur. However, once this moves into the Bahamas, the deeper system will then feel the weakness

We have to stop saying weak = west

[AdamFirst]

Here is why the CMC is not a viable solution. Yes, we saw this with Ike. However, there was an outflow jet from Hanna imparting very strong northerly flow, which resulted in the south of west steering component. We won't have that this time. Furthermore, the CMC upper wind pattern looks off as this is not really symmetric in the model fields

Was it also initialized too weak, as another poster mentioned, or is that just a low-res output?

[psyclone]

certainly these slight west shifts are bringing the potential for hazardous weather to the western side of the peninsula too. we seem to have lost our little margin of safety