ATL: IRMA - Models

[jlauderdal]

Hope this question is ok in the model thread:

1. When should we start seeing the WNW turn to avoid the islands?

2. Still 5 days out, but seems models have locked in to a N turn up the peninsula of FL with marginal errors E or W, so should we assume the BIG swings are more than likely done?

Yes. There may be very subtle changes, but the wide swings I think are done. We are inside of 5 days of the event and the models have pretty.much locked in on a solution. You may have a subtle change east or west. Now, in this case. subtle changes could mean very significant diffetences I may add, like.with having say Irma have land interaction with Cuba or Miami barely missing a direct landfall for example.

50 miles to the east side of miami makes a huge difference versus 50 to the west...small track changes are worth billions of dollars in this case

[robbielyn]

I would like to ask that no one "like" a particular model solution at this point. For example, the UK ensembles would absolutely DESTROY Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba.

There is no good solution to this storm at this point and someone is going to get hit. It will be a disaster no matter what happens now.

I was scared of the previous solutions with gfs and euro. I like anything thats not going to kill me or destroy my house. I will say I like that one solution that takes it north of the islands and out to sea then. I Dont wish this on anyone.

[SootyTern]

I would like to ask that no one "like" a particular model solution at this point. For example, the UK ensembles would absolutely DESTROY Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba.

There is no good solution to this storm at this point and someone is going to get hit. It will be a disaster no matter what happens now.

This. All this 'shredder' talk ignores the fact that lots of people live on Hispaniola, and it includes one of the poorest countries in the Western hemisphere.

[Bocadude85]

Through 81 hours the 6z HWRF is southwest of the 0z run.

[Michele B]

UKMet ensembles

only one takes it north of the islands and it goes out to sea. the rest go through the shredder before hitting to. I like the ukmet ensembles solution.

Remember, those lines are skinny. This storm is monstrous big. Even if it only scrapes the
East coast of FL, hurricane force winds extend out more than 50 miles (maybe 80, like I heard on a forecast this morning), so that would bring dangerous winds even to people who arent on the coast.

I kinda wish they'd make those "projected path" lines as wide as
The eye. Then people who are only "close" to the path would probably take more notice.

[Bocadude85]

6z HMON has a direct hit on the Florida Keys.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

06z consensus

[gatorcane]

Looks like there is an overall east shift with the GFS ensemble mean. Many ensembles are east of Florida that were not on the 00Z run

[SouthDadeFish]

06Z HWRF ends up moving NNW through the FL keys:

[Vdogg]

Irma just hit a strong Cat 5. Gfs may not be entirely crazy with it's pressure and intensity forecast. Lots of warm water and favourable environment to go...

[Vdogg]

Question, could the fact that the hurricane is so intense be affecting its path? Is this what is accounting for the East shift? I remember hearing a long time ago that the more intense the hurricane the more it makes its own path, but not sure if that's true.

[tgenius]

Looks like there is an overall east shift with the GFS ensemble mean. Many ensembles are east of Florida that were not on the 00Z run

I am hoping this ends up continuing going forward, but its gonna be real close. :/

[stormreader]

UKMet ensembles

Pretty wide spread in those UKMET ensembles.

[caneman]

Looks like there is an overall east shift with the GFS ensemble mean. Many ensembles are east of Florida that were not on the 00Z run

I am hoping this ends up continuing going forward, but its gonna be real close. :/

It doesn't really matter. Many Euro ensembles are on the west cost of Florida. Split the difference and you have right up the center of the state with all of South and Central Florida getting hurricane force winds. Not much change in overall consensus

[stormreader]

Of course something else to really look at in the next couple of days will be the width of the various ensemble spreads in the vicinity of Fl. If ensembles have increasing spread, then less confidence in the exact line of approach to southern Fl and perhaps the SE GOM. More tightly clustered--greater confidence.

[Voltron]

Hry guys the ridge is stronger and the trough is elongated and appears to cut off while another ridge is building behind it. It appears that this will cause Itma to stop and make sharp turn north some 50-200 miles off FL and send it up coast. Anybody else seeing this?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Stronger and moving more westerly than expected. Possible shift again in the 00z run, most likely closer to Cuba. Even if this weakens over Cuba (or after brushing the coast) this would still be extremely powerful. Not yet taking the expected WNW turn to the next forecast point. Concerning.

[caneman]

Hry guys the ridge is stronger and the trough is elongated and appears to cut off while another ridge is building behind it. It appears that this will cause Itma to stop and make sharp turn north some 50-200 miles off FL and send it up coast. Anybody else seeing this?

No and neither are.the models

[Kingslayer1254]

Stronger and moving more westerly than expected. Possible shift again in the 00z run, most likely closer to Cuba. Even if this weakens over Cuba (or after brushing the coast) this would still be extremely powerful. Not yet taking the expected WNW turn to the next forecast point.

Is it odd of me to think that the turn won't happen as expected. I am watching models and this system seems to be trucking along straight west and it is happy doing so. However, I know these things have a mind of their own. Still way to early to tell.

[tolakram]

Hry guys the ridge is stronger and the trough is elongated and appears to cut off while another ridge is building behind it. It appears that this will cause Itma to stop and make sharp turn north some 50-200 miles off FL and send it up coast. Anybody else seeing this?

Not sure what you are asking. Right now the models are seeing this, the questions are when, where, and what direction it heads after turning.