ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

An area of low pressure located about midway between the Cabo Verde
Islands and the Lesser Antilles remains elongated, and the
associated showers and thunderstorms are not well organized. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next several
days while it moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical
Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[BlowHard]

Don't get fooled by 99L and its intermittent pulsing convection. TW's are capable of doing this and they do it quite often thus giving out false positives. Overall environment still isn't very conducive.

It has a long ways to go, but it has an anticyclone building overhead per CIMSS analysis and has some decent convection finally popping. It doesn’t have a lot of time though before hitting the wall of shear in front of it, but if that weakens or lifts out then who knows.

Not only that, but the SAL in front of it right now is more than it has faced so far....fingers crossed that this just dies...we need some rain but not the wind.

[Emmett_Brown]

The 500 mb ridge (Bermuda High) and Great Lakes trough are handled slightly differently between the GFS and Euro after 160 hours (no surprise). GFS shows a stronger ridge, and faster moving, weaker 99l, which allows it to get further west before turning N.

[AubreyStorm]

Bommmm! Game over!

[BlowHard]

I just said the same thing on the other forum. The storm is still elongated, and it is hitting SAL for the first time....I agree 100%.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

As of 12:00 UTC Aug 06, 2017:

Location: 13.0°N 40.0°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[cycloneye]

[blp]

Interested to see if the 12z model runs stay consistent with late term development. We have seen the models flip flop between runs.

[blp]

For the first time in a while the 500mb vorticity is consolidating with the SW vorticity and not stretched out. I think that is a good sign and will lead to a tightening at the lower levels.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor2.GIF

[Blown Away]

GFS went from monster cane to wave, Euro went from nothing to hurricane off CONUS, the model suite tracks went from due west into Big islands to way N of the islands... All within 48 hour period...

99L is over a thousand miles from CONUS!

[weathaguyry]

If 12z runs still show a TD/TS, I think that would probably be the most likely solution. It didn't make as much sense to me when models showed nothing, because conditions are not too hostile.

[weathaguyry]

This may not be much of an issue for Florida, but that doesn't mean that the whole rest of the East Coast will be safe either, I think this could be an issue for the OBX, New England, and the Canadian Maritimes, especially if the High builds in. Just a pure guess though, it is still way too far out to think about this, but if it goes north of the Islands, it may find better conditions.

[chaser1]

For the first time in a while the 500mb vorticity is consolidating with the SW vorticity and not stretched out. I think that is a good sign and will lead to a tightening at the lower levels.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor2.GIF

Yep, and pretty darn close to where some new bursting is now taking place. Not uncommon for these larger gyres to have multiple points of competing vorticity but if adequate convergence exists close too or under that mid level vorticity honey-hole, than a small tight spin up could occur a good deal quicker than others might think. That seems to be a recurring theme with some Atlantic systems this year.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GFS is so far unimpressed with 99L

[blp]

not surprised. Don't know what to make of new GFS. Waiting for Euro...

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO=20%-50%

An area of low pressure located about midway between the Cabo Verde
Islands and the Lesser Antilles remains elongated, and the
associated showers and thunderstorms are not well organized. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next several
days while it moves generally west-northwestward across the tropical
Atlantic at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[CDO62]

2 PM. Track adjusted a little northward.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro already looks weaker out to 48hrs. compared to 00z.

[Siker]

12z Euro already looks weaker out to 48hrs. compared to 00z.

Don't know what you mean, 48 hours looks almost the same as 36 hours on the 00z looking at WxBell plots.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro already looks weaker out to 48hrs. compared to 00z.

Don't know what you mean, 48 hours looks almost the same as 36 hours on the 00z looking at WxBell plots.

Tropical Tidbits low resolution version may be deceiving but so far it may be trending towards what the 12z GFS showed.