ATL: HARVEY - Models

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Latest GFS is a moderate tropical storm hitting Tampico .... This is a big shift north ! It shows really heavy rain for Texas as well so models trending !

[Cpv17]

At this point I'm just happy the 18z GFS shows some rain for us here in SE TX. I think the eventual track of Harvey will be all about timing. The last run of the Euro was fast with it so it missed its chance to get pulled north by the trough. If it slows down a bit or the trough moves in faster then it will have a chance to get pulled north.

[ROCK]

GFS is late to the party as its been all year...forgot how to post a photo...old age

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_09

[wxmann_91]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/august.gif


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/september.gif


Never say never, climatology wise

Those maps are outdated or flat out inaccurate. The last storm to follow that "favored" August track into TX in August was Allen in 1980. 37 years ago.

EDIT: also does not show the favored BOC and Central America tracks that have been the rage over recent years. Those are maps for an old climate era. Summer ridges are much stronger these days.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Not my first model of choice, a few wobbles and who know's where this will hit.
Also looks a big system on this plot.

[ROCK]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/navgemtc ... =Animation

12Z NAVGEM into STX...the trend is your friend...

[stormlover2013]

18z navy

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=101

[ROCK]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/august.gif


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/september.gif


Never say never, climatology wise

Those maps are outdated or flat out inaccurate. The last storm to follow that "favored" August track into TX in August was Allen in 1980. 37 years ago.

EDIT: also does not show the favored BOC and Central America tracks that have been the rage over recent years. Those are maps for an old climate era. Summer ridges are much stronger these days.

um then why would they publish outdates maps if they are not going by climatology? Lets not forget we are into late August as well. just saying.

[stormreader]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/august.gif


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/september.gif


Never say never, climatology wise

Those maps are outdated or flat out inaccurate. The last storm to follow that "favored" August track into TX in August was Allen in 1980. 37 years ago.

EDIT: also does not show the favored BOC and Central America tracks that have been the rage over recent years. Those are maps for an old climate era. Summer ridges are much stronger these days.

Very interesting. We know that climate cycles are much shorter than previously supposed. Very, very significant changes in 3,000 to 5,000 years. Much different from mid 20th century thinking. Also, we know that during much shorter periods there have been changes. Something called the "mini-ice age" only a matter of hundreds of years ago (from memory--I think that time is right). And I like what you are saying. There could be more subtle changes in climate over a time range of 75-100 years, which would not necessarily be as obvious to our standard measurements, but could nonetheless be reflected in something like hurricane formation and direction.

[ROCK]

18z navy

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=101

yep much further north than the 12Z as well...definitely feeling the weakness there....

[Cpv17]

Hurricane Bret I believe of 1999 is proof that these systems can get pulled up north from way down south in the BOC. Although it's rare, it can happen. I also believe Alex of 2010 might be a decent analog for this storm.

[stormlover2013]

Yes sir

[stormreader]

18z navy

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=101

yep much further north than the 12Z as well...definitely feeling the weakness there....

And I think Harvey's location in that model would suggest a landfall further north than S Texas.

[stormreader]

18z navy

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=101

yep much further north than the 12Z as well...definitely feeling the weakness there....

And I think Harvey's location in that model would suggest a landfall further north than S Texas.

Seems as though some of the later models have 92L recurving east of Fl..staying in the Atlantic, although its by no means certain. That might suggest high pressure over the eastern GOM but perhaps a growing weakness along the Texas coastal area. Just saying...

[hd44]

Nam came in much more amplified in the upper midwest near the Canadian border... may have some changes in Gfs with track.

[FLpanhandle91]

00z GFS carrying Harvey slightly further north this run through 66 hours. Nothing substantial though.

[Alyono]

GFS now stronger. Cannot get a consistent model trend

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS now stronger. Cannot get a consistent model trend

Looks further south as well. May get buried in CA.

[FLpanhandle91]

GFS now stronger. Cannot get a consistent model trend

Looks further south as well. May get buried in CA.

Yep. Carried it slightly north up until its interaction with Central America. Looking like it isn't reemerging in this run.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS now stronger. Cannot get a consistent model trend

Looks further south as well. May get buried in CA.

Yep. Carried it slightly north up until its interaction with Central America. Looking like it isn't reemerging in this run.

Clear south trend the last 3 runs of the GFS at hour 90.