ATL: IRMA - Models

[FixySLN]

I really dislike that Jose is right behind like that...

Jose comes into play a week later, but there's literally no guessing how that plays out. If Irma is hungry enough, she might not leave much behind for Jose. Early models showed Jose doing a full loop and coming back for N. Carolina/Va beach. If those two areas get ANY of Irma, you're talking full saturation and then at LEAST a TD dumping more rain. THAT would suck.

[Evil Jeremy]

Have to wonder why NHC isn't buying these runs yet.. do their tools show something we can't see??

What have they not been buying into so far? Their forecast is reasonably in-line with the models through 5 days.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Landfall around the GA/SC border moving NNW. Western NC will definitely get the brunt of the winds in this run.

[northjaxpro]

Irma is going straight north on the East Central to North East Florida coast on the coastline that last frame. I would not call that missing Florida. Plus, the large expansive wind field by that time will bring hurricane winds over a large area well away from the coast.

[caneseddy]

No signficant shifts on the 12z its about identical as the 06z. It will be hard not to get impacts considering how large Irma is expected to be at the time it nears Florida.

Agree. There was just a small nudge east on he 12z run but metro South Florida will get the brunt of the western eyewall, so for anyone who says Florida may be saved is too early to speculate. All it takes is a 10 mile wobble back to the left and you have the eye right on shore. Also, the storm will be so massive that even 50 miles offshore, South Florida will probably get hurricane force gusts.

[ava_ati]

905 mb?! Rofl that's disgusting. This is a generational storm. Wherever it ends up, people are going to define life as pre- and post-Irma.

That is a bad track for the entire east side of the state, that is a lot of storm surge. Matthew but worse IMO

The only bright side I see is once it starts moving north it moves at a fairly decent clip.

[M3gaMatch]

Can someone please plot those UKMET co-ords onto a map? I am on phone ATM.

[Jevo]

I wouldn't call a Cat 4/5 Eyewall sliding up a coast where millions live "saving" anywhere. The GFS still pust SE FL in a very dangerous position .

[Steve]

Inland in Georgia at 156 hours. That's a hard solution, but I still don't see any way this can get out with that high sitting overhead. Somebody's going to get landfall.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Hour 162 actually W of 06z... Irma gets blocked N all the way to @Savannah and then into CONUS...

[caneseddy]

UKMET narrow miss of a MONSTER. Possible eyewall for Miami though

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 57.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2017 0 16.7N 57.7W 943 92
0000UTC 06.09.2017 12 17.2N 60.2W 951 84
1200UTC 06.09.2017 24 17.9N 63.0W 952 81
0000UTC 07.09.2017 36 18.9N 65.4W 958 76
1200UTC 07.09.2017 48 19.8N 68.0W 955 80
0000UTC 08.09.2017 60 20.6N 70.7W 937 93
1200UTC 08.09.2017 72 20.9N 73.1W 946 86
0000UTC 09.09.2017 84 20.9N 75.2W 947 83
1200UTC 09.09.2017 96 21.0N 77.2W 953 72
0000UTC 10.09.2017 108 21.2N 78.7W 951 73
1200UTC 10.09.2017 120 22.2N 79.7W 947 87
0000UTC 11.09.2017 132 23.5N 79.6W 936 88
1200UTC 11.09.2017 144 25.5N 79.5W 915 96

So that is a shift west from the 00z run ,am I right?

[FixySLN]

No signficant shifts on the 12z its about identical as the 06z. It will be hard not to get impacts considering how large Irma is expected to be at the time it nears Florida.

Agree. There was just a small nudge east on he 12z run but metro South Florida will get the brunt of the western eyewall, so for anyone who says Florida may be saved is too early to speculate. All it takes is a 10 mile wobble back to the left and you have the eye right on shore. Also, the storm will be so massive that even 50 miles offshore, South Florida will probably get hurricane force gusts.

I suspect that east nudge to becomes more prominent (after turning North) over the next few days.

[Steve]

174 over Asheville, NC in the 980's. Still going NNW.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=174

[Vdogg]

Ooh, this looks like a Carolinas hit.

You sure about that?

It's riding the coast, looks like it'll come on shore right at the GA/SC border. SC is part of the Carolinas, and they will experience a significant hurricane from this path. This is also the second east shift in a row. Needs to be watched.

[ronjon]

Savannah Georgia landfall and then NW up into Georgia. The shortwave digging south into the eastern GOM slingshots it back NW. Run this animation and you can see it clearly (yellow vorticity).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2017090512&fh=114

[northjaxpro]

Hour 144 on the current GFS

Monday 9/11

Pressure 911

offshore Jax Beach

are you kidding me?

No, this is no joke. Irma is forecast to be sitting right at or just off our coast on Monday morning..

[Evil Jeremy]

Have to wonder why NHC isn't buying these runs yet.. do their tools show something we can't see??

What have they not been buying into so far? Their forecast is reasonably in-line with the models through 5 days.

From what people have been saying, NHC thinks the Euro path is more where Irma could go.

The 00z ECMWF is very similar to the rest of the models right now. It takes Irma into Cuba, which the GFS doesn't (but UKMET does), and brings Irma to SW FL instead of SE FL, but otherwise all the models are in agreement of a catastrophic hurricane around the Florida Straits in 5 days. And the NHC is buying into that general outlook. So I'm not sure what you don't think the NHC is 'buying' at the moment.

[tolakram]

The GFS manages to hit Georgia.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Ooh, this looks like a Carolinas hit.

You sure about that?

It's riding the coast, looks like it'll come on shore right at the GA/SC border. SC is part of the Carolinas, and they will experience a significant hurricane from this path. This is also the second east shift in a row. Needs to be watched.

This run shifted west by a good amount near GA. Only difference was that FL dodged complete landfall by a few miles.

[Ken711]

12z GFS... Hour 162 actually W of 06z... Irma gets blocked N all the way to @Savannah and then into CONUS...

Slightly West on approach to FL or along the Florida Coast?