ATL: IRMA - Models

[Ken711]

12z GFS... Hour 162 actually W of 06z... Irma gets blocked N all the way to @Savannah and then into CONUS...

Slightly West on approach to FL or along the Florida Coast?

[plasticup]

174 over Asheville, NC in the 980's. Still going NNW.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=174

Is that even possible? I can't think of any precedent. Asheville is like 300 miles inland. And in the mountains to boot!

[MatthewsRevenge]

Ooh, this looks like a Carolinas hit.

You sure about that?

It's riding the coast, looks like it'll come on shore right at the GA/SC border. SC is part of the Carolinas, and they will experience a significant hurricane from this path. This is also the second east shift in a row. Needs to be watched.

True. But I guess when you first said this, you meant NC/SC lol that's why I responded like that.

[FixySLN]

The GFS manages to hit Georgia.

Don't understand why it tracks that far west after making it's northern turn. I'm probably missing something.

[fci]

Have to wonder why NHC isn't buying these runs yet.. do their tools show something we can't see??

What have they not been buying into so far? Their forecast is reasonably in-line with the models through 5 days.

Not the GFS.
I see runs posted with East Coast problems yet the 5 day forecast has Irma at 81.2 which is west of the East Coast for sure.

[terstorm1012]

174 over Asheville, NC in the 980's. Still going NNW.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 512&fh=174

Is that even possible? I can't think of any precedent. Asheville is like 300 miles inland. And in the mountains to boot!

I got down to 965mb at my location well inland during Sandy. It's quite possible.

[Blizzard96x]

12z Canadian model takes Irma into the Gulf!

[Vdogg]

You sure about that?

It's riding the coast, looks like it'll come on shore right at the GA/SC border. SC is part of the Carolinas, and they will experience a significant hurricane from this path. This is also the second east shift in a row. Needs to be watched.

True. But I guess when you first said this, you meant NC/SC lol that's why I responded like that.

Western NC will also experience significant effects, especially if it comes in as a 4. It'll probably be a 1 or a 2 by the time it reaches that area.

[ScottNAtlanta]

David in 1979 was the last hurricane to landfall near Savannah. Other than that, there are only 3 others on record so statistically Savannah getting hit is very rare

[Mouton]

Irma is going straight north on the East Central to North East Florida coast on the coastline that last frame. I would not call that missing Florida. Plus, the large expansive wind field by that time will bring hurricane winds over a large area well away from the coast.

GFS is major hit for here (Northeast Florida) given there is little to knock down the winds aside from the left side run over the peninsula. Somewhat fortunate on the west side, for Jax and Amelia, but that is just grasping for straws. This will complete the Mathew devastation if it bears out. Hard to see an escape given the Nor easter brewing later this week. No way this goes east and frankly could even get pushed left from the damn high that just won't budge from our north east.

Listening to Bastardi this AM saying he is surprised the climate model he follows shows Irma going west of the Peninsula albeit the operational says east. 5 days out, much can change. See what the Euro says a bit later.

In any event, we have planned our evac and have our supplies fully completed now. This storm is nothing to trifle with.

[BucMan2]

Please remember, just like the high pressure show weaker than expected, the next run the short wave may show the same thing so were are deaking with
computers which can change hour to hour-Lets see what the Euro says shortly-

Craig

[Evil Jeremy]

Have to wonder why NHC isn't buying these runs yet.. do their tools show something we can't see??

What have they not been buying into so far? Their forecast is reasonably in-line with the models through 5 days.

Not the GFS.
I see runs posted with East Coast problems yet the 5 day forecast has Irma at 81.2 which is west of the East Coast for sure.

5 days from now, Irma is forecast to be South of Florida, not to the state's East or West. And the NHC's current 5 day point of the Keys is still comfortably close to the GFS and the other probable solutions. Give it a couple more forecasts, the 5 day point will continue to shift northward, probably down the center of Florida until the picture is clearer.

This is a good reminder to not focus on the center of the cone 5 days out.

[sma10]

UKMET narrow miss of a MONSTER. Possible eyewall for Miami though

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.09.2017

HURRICANE IRMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 57.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.09.2017 0 16.7N 57.7W 943 92
0000UTC 06.09.2017 12 17.2N 60.2W 951 84
1200UTC 06.09.2017 24 17.9N 63.0W 952 81
0000UTC 07.09.2017 36 18.9N 65.4W 958 76
1200UTC 07.09.2017 48 19.8N 68.0W 955 80
0000UTC 08.09.2017 60 20.6N 70.7W 937 93
1200UTC 08.09.2017 72 20.9N 73.1W 946 86
0000UTC 09.09.2017 84 20.9N 75.2W 947 83
1200UTC 09.09.2017 96 21.0N 77.2W 953 72
0000UTC 10.09.2017 108 21.2N 78.7W 951 73
1200UTC 10.09.2017 120 22.2N 79.7W 947 87
0000UTC 11.09.2017 132 23.5N 79.6W 936 88
1200UTC 11.09.2017 144 25.5N 79.5W 915 96

What the helllll, 915 on that product is probably <905 in reality.

Strange that the UK deepens this so much considering that Irma will be over Cuba for what, 36 hours?

[Steve]

The GFS manages to hit Georgia.

Don't understand why it tracks that far west after making it's northern turn. I'm probably missing something.

I'm telling you fixy, it's gotta be that way. It's the large surface high to the north building down from Canada. GFS, EC, CMC, Ensembles and all have mostly been showing that would happen for the last week. And now that we're getting closer and that trough is going to lift out in time off the NE US, there's going to be a big ridge in its place. While they don't always steer from the surface, it's a clockwise flow and a big block. It could stall and wait just the same, but almost all solutions have brought it in and then hooked eventually with a radical hook before raining out.
-----------------------
As to whether or not Asheville at 982 is possible, if it's moving 15 mph and comes in 920 or below, it's going to take a day or day and a half to weaken out of hurricane territory. Remember small Camille stayed a tropical storm all the way up through Virginia til it got back out over the water. So a 20 hour run for Irma won't probably take it that far down even though it's gotta go through the mountains and foothills in NW GA to get up there.

[Vdogg]

You sure about that?

It's riding the coast, looks like it'll come on shore right at the GA/SC border. SC is part of the Carolinas, and they will experience a significant hurricane from this path. This is also the second east shift in a row. Needs to be watched.

This run shifted west by a good amount near GA. Only difference was that FL dodged complete landfall by a few miles.

East and West is relative. The overall track shifted east away from Florida, which had effects further down the line when it made it's left turn.

[ronjon]

Big difference I see so far with GFS and Euro is the position of the short wave. GFS is faster and further east with the shortwave with it in Alabama by 120 hours. it then dives it south over the next couple of days into the GOM. This steers Irma N-NW and then NW into Georgia. This mornings European model was much slower with the shortwave and further west into La. This causes a further westward path up through Florida. That's the difference folks between an east coast storm and something further west. The UKMET seems to agree with the GFS so perhaps we'll see a shift east on the 12z Euro.

[Ken711]

Is it possible for hurricane the size of Irma power through the ridge to the north and ride up the Eastern seaboard like Donna or Floyd?

[tolakram]

UK Plot



16.7, -57.7
17.2, -60.2
17.9, -63.0
18.9, -65.4
19.8, -68.0
20.6, -70.7
20.9, -73.1
20.9, -75.2
21.0, -77.2
21.2, -78.7
22.2, -79.7
23.5, -79.6
25.5, -79.5

Map tool: https://www.darrinward.com/lat-long/?id=59aed24b454f67.43185594

[La Sirena]

David in 1979 was the last hurricane to landfall near Savannah. Other than that, there are only 3 others on record so statistically Savannah getting hit is very rare

Matthew came extremely close to landfall on Tybee last year. Tybee is Savannah's barrier island right next door to HHI.

[chris_fit]

Anxious for next hour's 12z Euro run - Will shift a little to the E (near FL) like the GFS?