ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Good to know.. lets see it ? Its also not last night anymore.

New image. Inner eye is nearly gone now.. no doubt an erc is about done.

OK, I'll give credit where credit is due This one is pretty clear now, yes, an actual ERC is completing. That's what I get for reading posts without checking the storm!! My apologies for any confusion.

Its all good.. i screw uo everyday.. mostly reading things wrong..

[Meteorcane]

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/TKrT4UV.gif[/img]
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/u7Hz1aP.jpg[/img]
Irma N of the track for now...

Is it true what a poster recently said that the satellite might be wrong as it showed different coordinates than what the NHC reported on their 5 PM heading?

Yes... we saw that when Irma passed through Barbuda. Radar showed a direct hit while satellite showed it being north.

There is a phenomenon called parallax that causes satellite images to be slightly spatially displaced. The degree of displacement depends on distance (north-south//east-west) from the satellite. I don't know how much of an issue this is currently having with IRMA as it is a bit east and a bit north of GOES-16 location in orbit. See https://satelliteliaisonblog.com/2017/0 ... -parallax/

[tropicwatch]

[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/TKrT4UV.gif[/img]
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/u7Hz1aP.jpg[/img]
Irma N of the track for now...

Is it true what a poster recently said that the satellite might be wrong as it showed different coordinates than what the NHC reported on their 5 PM heading?

Yes... we saw that when Irma passed through Barbuda. Radar showed a direct hit while satellite showed it being north.

GOES 16 was pretty accurate last night.

[TJRE]

How good is the rail system in Florida?
Because I would think many many more people could be transported out this way
Make the fare free!!!!

http://www.tri-rail.com/

[KBBOCA]

If it goes up the spine, Orlando wouldn't get devastating winds would it? We just moved from there and have a fair number of friends I need to start working on if this is predicted to hold together bizarrely well over land.

So, I think you should be prepared for significant winds in Orlando. NHC graphic to follow as soon as I find it.

Here's the latest windspeed probabilities from NHC.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2058.shtml

If I'm reading it correctly, 63% cumulative percent chance of sustained winds of 58 MPH; 42% cumulative probability of winds 74 MPH.

Also, look at your forecast office (Melbourne FL). They have a graphical weather forecast which shows you the risks ahead. It takes a bit of playing with to figure out, but here's Sunday night wind gusts:
https://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/mlb.php

For Sunday night, gusts in Orlando could reach 89 knots (102 MPH)!

[Nasdaq]

Well that escalated quickly, How low will she go

[1900hurricane]

[images removed]
Irma N of the track for now...

Is it true what a poster recently said that the satellite might be off as it showed different coordinates than what the NHC reported for their 5 PM coordinates?

There is almost always some parallax error with geostationary satellites since their not looking straight down at a tropical cyclone. It's not homogenous, and GOES-13 should be relatively correct since Irma is very near the satellite's longitude, but it is possible that there is still some small error.

[Sciencerocks]

230630 2002N 07029W 6966 03124 0024 +089 +053 209046 047 040 003 00
230700 2004N 07031W 6966 03120 0020 +089 +058 211048 049 042 003 00
230730 2005N 07032W 6967 03117 0026 +081 +059 212049 050 042 003 00
230800 2006N 07033W 6967 03113 0029 +075 +058 211049 053 042 005 00
230830 2008N 07035W 6969 03107 0030 +072 +060 210051 052 042 005 00
230900 2009N 07036W 6974 03098 0003 +089 +054 215051 051 041 002 00
230930 2010N 07038W 6959 03109 9989 +094 +059 216055 058 042 002 00
231000 2012N 07039W 6965 03092 9992 +083 +067 214057 059 043 003 00
231030 2013N 07040W 6970 03079 9987 +082 +069 216055 059 043 006 03
231100 2014N 07042W 6968 03079 9966 +096 +063 220055 056 043 006 00
231130 2015N 07043W 6967 03075 9959 +099 +048 222055 055 043 003 00
231200 2017N 07044W 6962 03079 9963 +091 +050 224053 055 042 003 00
231230 2018N 07046W 6964 03070 9977 +075 +066 222060 065 042 005 00
231300 2019N 07047W 6974 03058 9971 +080 +069 218066 068 043 006 00
231330 2021N 07048W 6967 03070 9974 +077 +068 217060 064 045 005 00
231400 2022N 07050W 6966 03063 9955 +090 +052 220060 062 045 001 00
231430 2023N 07051W 6967 03057 9957 +083 +065 218059 060 048 004 00
231500 2024N 07052W 6966 03056 9960 +076 +066 220064 067 050 006 00
231530 2026N 07054W 6964 03055 9940 +089 +061 220062 064 051 005 00
231600 2027N 07055W 6966 03048 9929 +096 +048 217061 061 053 003 00

[Ptarmigan]

I have concern that many people in Miami and Fort Lauderdale think they went thru the real deal in Andrew, and Same goes for all of the palm beach folk with Wilma. Hopefully people realize that this will be Wilma on steroids if current tracks verify.


On another note, I am getting more concerned for weakening in the short term that could cause people to think, oh this is weakening, not a cat 5 anymore, etc. the reality is the area around south Florida is so notorious for rapid strengthening, it may well rally on landfall even if it takes a couple days "off". some 4s and 5s have done that.

So very true.

[NDG]

[images removed]
Irma N of the track for now...

Is it true what a poster recently said that the satellite might be off as it showed different coordinates than what the NHC reported for their 5 PM coordinates?

There is almost always some parallax error with geostationary satellites since their not looking straight down at a tropical cyclone. It's not homogenous, and GOES-13 should be relatively correct since Irma is very near the satellite's longitude, but it is possible that there is still some small error.

It makes sense, the picture from the satellite is an angle, not looking straight down a the eye.

[Kingslayer1254]

Can someone please explain to me how this system is to turn right .. I mean can something this big just hit the brakes and turn right??

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072326
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 17 20170907
231630 2028N 07056W 6967 03040 9934 +086 +065 213062 067 053 003 00
231700 2029N 07058W 6972 03030 9946 +072 +069 210067 070 057 016 00
231730 2031N 07059W 6954 03045 9932 +077 +076 211069 071 057 027 03
231800 2032N 07100W 6966 03033 9933 +082 +082 211066 071 055 031 03
231830 2033N 07102W 6987 03001 9930 +078 +078 211070 074 054 010 00
231900 2035N 07103W 6961 03030 9924 +078 +078 211072 074 056 016 03
231930 2036N 07105W 6970 03011 9918 +076 +075 206072 074 060 014 03
232000 2037N 07106W 6971 03006 9913 +074 +073 211077 078 062 015 03
232030 2039N 07107W 6960 03007 9901 +076 +075 214078 079 061 022 03
232100 2040N 07109W 6964 02995 9891 +076 +076 215083 085 065 014 03
232130 2041N 07110W 6963 02986 9879 +075 +074 212087 089 069 011 00
232200 2042N 07111W 6969 02971 9865 +078 +073 210088 089 070 011 00
232230 2044N 07113W 6966 02963 9850 +083 +071 209089 091 072 012 03
232300 2045N 07114W 6966 02952 9836 +083 +070 208087 091 074 011 00
232330 2046N 07116W 6965 02941 9817 +089 +072 207086 088 075 011 00
232400 2047N 07117W 6955 02940 9807 +084 +081 212087 089 079 019 00
232430 2048N 07119W 6973 02906 9793 +085 +084 205092 101 091 050 00
232500 2049N 07120W 6920 02949 9766 +091 +091 214090 105 092 035 00
232530 2050N 07122W 6996 02838 9735 +098 +097 209079 081 094 018 00
232600 2051N 07123W 6959 02872 9704 +105 +094 205082 085 093 009 00
$$

[KBBOCA]

Is it a bit irresponsible for this promet to be posting this?

it feels a bit hyperbolic

@RyanMaue
Based on size of Hurricane #Irma + Category 4/5 landfall winds/surge & track up I-75 to Atlanta, are we contemplating a Trillion $ disaster?

Yes, I quibble a lot with Ryan Maue's tweets. Most of his info is sound, but he does go for the sensationalist approach at times. Sadly with Irma, most of his sensationalism early on proved right on target, so I've downplayed my criticism of him.

But I agree with you, this latest tweet seems over done.

[alan1961]

Some livestream tv coming out of the Bahamas.

http://www.znsbahamas.com/

[KBBOCA]

Well that escalated quickly, How low will she go

What are the latest obs? I've missed them.

[stormreader]

Jog west?

[bubba hotep]

Irma N of the track for now...

Is it true what a poster recently said that the satellite might be off as it showed different coordinates than what the NHC reported for their 5 PM coordinates?

Appears to have corrected back west with this latest wobble.

[1900hurricane]

Considering the current state of eyewall replacement, I still think we're 12-18 hours away from returning to a single eyewall with a clearing eye. The outer eyewall does appear to be gaining dominance on microwave imagery, but considering the large radius of the outer eyewall, it may take some time for it to fully kill of the inner eyewall.

I should also mention that eyewall replacement is still rather unpredictable, even as it is occurring. I've seen plenty of storms botch eyewall replacement for whatever reason and end up in a structural flux. I've also seen systems complete massive eyewall replacement projects in relatively short periods of time when I fully didn't expect it to even complete. Eyewall replacement has kicked my butt in the past, and I'm sure it will in the future. Whether it does here in this instance with Irma remains to be seen.

[stormreader]

Eye becoming more clearly defined. CDO still not quite as impressive as 36 hours ago. But it'll do.

[stormreader]

Considering the current state of eyewall replacement, I still think we're 12-18 hours away from returning to a single eyewall with a clearing eye. The outer eyewall does appear to be gaining dominance on microwave imagery, but considering the large radius of the outer eyewall, it may take some time for it to fully kill of the inner eyewall.

I should also mention that eyewall replacement is still rather unpredictable, even as it is occurring. I've seen plenty of storms botch eyewall replacement for whatever reason and end up in a structural flux. I've also seen systems complete massive eyewall replacement projects in relatively short periods of time when I fully didn't expect it to even complete. Eyewall replacement has kicked my butt in the past, and I'm sure it will in the future. Whether it does here in this instance with Irma remains to be seen.

Putting you on the spot, an average time between ERC's for Cat 4's and 5's might be???? or is it something not that well understood?