ATL: IRMA - Models

[mcheer23]

144: Ouch, Tampa.

[plasticup]

120. Well SW of GFS:

This makes NOLA nervous...

[SFLcane]

hello gom...

[tolakram]

Just SE of Key West at 132 hours.

[Evil Jeremy]

Over, or just off of the SW FL coast at 144 hours, per InstantWeatherMaps

[Hurricane Andrew]

Cuba would take a big bite out of it...

[AutoPenalti]

TT is stuck at 96hrs FWIW.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Cuba would take a big bite out of it...

Not too many mountains on that side. Would weaken a bit but not shred it.

[Vdogg]

Just when I thought we were getting model consensus. That's a pretty big change from the Euro. Ensembles should be interesting.

[Michele B]

To give you an idea how good the EURO has been on Irma...check out the 0-240 hour track it had LAST THURSDAY 12Z! Pretty darn good...:

That's an amazing projection that far out.

I've always thought the Euro is better! Not that *I* know anything!

[gatorcane]

hour 144:

[Steve]

Gator,

It is well SW of the Operational GFS but just a hair south of the GEFS Ensembles at 120.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... =0&ypos=73

GEPS aggregate comes up to the Big Bend more or less, so the 12Z GFS Ensembles (at least as presented on Tropical Tidbits) are closer to the EC and NHC than the GFS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=440

It ain't much, but I threw Levi a $25.00 donation for the good work he does and the model links he provides that some of the better sources don't have or present as quickly. I'm sure if a few more people gave a few dollars, it would help him out. If you're on this thread, you use his model outputs.

[hurricaneCW]

Cuba would take a big bite out of it...

I'm not so sure about that, Euro shows little to no weakening over Cuba, part of that is likely due to Irma's large circulation and the relative flatlands of central Cuba.

[SFLcane]

Donna take 2

[Evil Jeremy]

hour 144:

https://s26.postimg.org/lezyia3tl/ecmwf ... watl_7.png

Landfall around Cape Coral/Bonita Springs

[southwest southerner]

models appear to be shifting further and further west...isn't this what Ike did?

[PTPatrick]

The question is how is euro treating upper low and ridge pressure that sends it to gulf?

[ConvergenceZone]

Probably wealenbto a cat 2 or strong cat1 after leaving Cuba, but can gain some of that strength back before next landfall

[AxaltaRacing24]

Landfalls in SW FL at near cat 5 intensity

[tolakram]

933mb landfall just south of Naples moving north. 144 hours.

Hard to tell with the resolution I'm looking at but once again yet another model, this time the euro, that wants to rapidly deepen this thing just before landfall.