ATL: IRMA - Models

[tolakram]

933mb landfall just south of Naples moving north. 144 hours.

Hard to tell with the resolution I'm looking at but once again yet another model, this time the euro, that wants to rapidly deepen this thing just before landfall.

[otowntiger]

Just when I thought we were getting model consensus. That's a pretty big change from the Euro. Ensembles should be interesting.

Well, between the eastern solution from the GFS and the western solution from the Euro, it seems that the continual model consensus could still be down the spine of the peninsula, correct??

[Hurricane Andrew]

933mb landfall just south of Naples moving north. 144 hours.

Hard to tell with the resolution I'm looking at but once again yet another model, this time the euro, that wants to rapidly deepen this thing just before landfall.

OHC/SST is astronomical in that area...if Irma can avoid Hispanola...idk

[Blizzard96x]

Probably wealenbto a cat 2 or strong cat1 after leaving Cuba, but can gain some of that strength back before next landfall

Euro definitely doesnt show that. Much stronger... Cuba is not very mountainous on that side.

[chris_fit]

12Z EUro shows Charley Part 2 at least for FL

[AutoPenalti]

Trend

[gatorcane]

12Z summary: some models shift or stay east (GFS, NAVGEM, UKMET). Some models stay or shift west (ECMWF, HWRF, CMC).

Net result: probably not a big change to NHC 5 day point east or west.

[Langinbang187]

Cuba would take a big bite out of it...

Absolutely. Cuba would bite the bullet hard for FL if this verified.

[tolakram]

[Sanibel]

That Euro track wipes Sanibel Island out...

[bella_may]

models appear to be shifting further and further west...isn't this what Ike did?

The only thing turning this away is the cold front. Hopefully it comes through

[Steve]

The question is how is euro treating upper low and ridge pressure that sends it to gulf?

Run it at 500. Looks like the NE Trough exits quicker and is a bit shallower which is why Irma gets that far west before turning up. I wonder if EC will keep it inland or cross Florida and come back out into the SW Atlantic before landfalling again? More plots to come on the EC.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=513

[otowntiger]

models appear to be shifting further and further west...isn't this what Ike did?

SOME models are shifting west, and SOME are shifting EAST. The consensus may still be straight down the spine of FL. But I'm just guessing, who knows?

[Vdogg]

Just when I thought we were getting model consensus. That's a pretty big change from the Euro. Ensembles should be interesting.

Well, between the eastern solution from the GFS and the western solution from the Euro, it seems that the continual model consensus could still be down the spine of the peninsula, correct??

Yes and no, need to see the next frame. It seemed to hook a little NNE after landfall. It may cross the state diagonally, instead of up the spine.

[SouthFLTropics]

12Z summary: some models shift or stay east (GFS, NAVGEM, UKMET). Some models stay or shift west (ECMWF, HWRF, CMC).

Net result: probably not a big change to NHC 5 day point east or west.

Basic consensus would be just up the middle. Not looking good folks.

[sphelps8681]

To give you an idea how good the EURO has been on Irma...check out the 0-240 hour track it had LAST THURSDAY 12Z! Pretty darn good...:

That's an amazing projection that far out.

I've always thought the Euro is better! Not that *I* know anything!

Is that Irma making landfall on Louisiana. Please don't be right.

[gatorcane]

12Z JMA agrees with the Euro:

[MatthewsRevenge]

Don't see much of a difference from 00z Euro. They still have it clipping west FL.

[hurricaneCW]

Cuba would take a big bite out of it...

Absolutely. Cuba would bite the bullet hard for FL if this verified.

Considering the Euro makes landfall as a Cat 5 on sw Florida, I'm not sure what bullet it's really taking.

[La Sirena]

That Euro track wipes Sanibel Island out...

And the Keys....I certainly wasn't expecting such a West shift.