ATL: TEN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Emmett_Brown]

92L is moving rapidly, which is preventing organization as well (keeping it elongated, unable to close off). Once it slows down tonight and tomorrow, we could see some further development.

Both the GFS and Euro do not show it to slow down, if anything they both show picking up speed during the next 36-48 hrs until it near the FL Peninsula.

Yep, you are right, it won't slow down until Tuesday. 12Z Tuesday, the 18zGFS has it over SFL, and actually moves it into the SE GOM by Wed. But, I think it will at least begin to slow a little by late tomorrow, perhaps enough to start developing. CMC and UKMET slam on the brakes before reaching FL. Going to be an interesting couple of days.

[tailgater]

MLC to the SE looks to be competing with the Best track position. Shows up nicely on PR radar and sat loops.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=01101111&loop=yes

[Bocadude85]

Needs to be watched because it's closing off a llc and the ULL is weakening and filling in, hope they don't cancel recon again

I don't see them flying recon unless the satellite appearance of 92L greatly improves by tomorrow. I'm just not sure that conditions will be favorable enough for more then a tropical wave.

[Hurricaneman]

Needs to be watched because it's closing off a llc and the ULL is weakening and filling in, hope they don't cancel recon again

Even the cmc didn't do much with it till it was in southern Bahamas. I suspect they might cancel recon again but lets see what the afternoon models show.

Looks more like a nowcast situation because the models are showing weakening the next 24 hrs when looking at the satellite there is no such creature so it looks like do you go with the models or with what your eyes see we'll see

[LarryWx]

Needs to be watched because it's closing off a llc and the ULL is weakening and filling in, hope they don't cancel recon again

Even the cmc didn't do much with it till it was in southern Bahamas. I suspect they might cancel recon again but lets see what the afternoon models show.

Looks more like a nowcast situation because the models are showing weakening the next 24 hrs when looking at the satellite there is no such creature so it looks like do you go with the models or with what your eyes see we'll see

Where exactly are you eyes looking (coordinates) to be so concerned right now?

[TheStormExpert]

Really this is nothing more than a complete mess. Where are people seeing that recon will be flying into 92L anytime soon? The only thing that is eerie about it is the location and timing be exactly the same as Andrew 25 years ago.

[Emmett_Brown]

Needs to be watched because it's closing off a llc and the ULL is weakening and filling in, hope they don't cancel recon again

Even the cmc didn't do much with it till it was in southern Bahamas. I suspect they might cancel recon again but lets see what the afternoon models show.

Looks more like a nowcast situation because the models are showing weakening the next 24 hrs when looking at the satellite there is no such creature so it looks like do you go with the models or with what your eyes see we'll see

I agree. At this point, the models are useful for the steering patterns. We are in pretty close range before approaching land, so the steering should be settled. GFS was blind to Gert. If I had to go out on a limb, I say there is a better than 50% chance this develops as shear lessens and the wave slows a bit near FL.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Even the cmc didn't do much with it till it was in southern Bahamas. I suspect they might cancel recon again but lets see what the afternoon models show.

Looks more like a nowcast situation because the models are showing weakening the next 24 hrs when looking at the satellite there is no such creature so it looks like do you go with the models or with what your eyes see we'll see

Where exactly are you eyes looking (coordinates) to be so concerned right now?

Nothing of concern but it is a very healthy wave which is entering favorable conditions in mid-August. This has a good chance of developing.

[Emmett_Brown]

Really this is nothing more than a complete mess. Where are people seeing that recon will be flying into 92L anytime soon? The only thing that is eerie about it is the location and timing be exactly the same as Andrew 25 years ago.

There is vorticity, and a sharp wind shift. The wave is also tilted to the left, so it could tumble over and close off. You are right, it's not much to look at, but the potential is there, which is why UKMET and CMC develop it, even though some models dont. Interesting development is that the 12z GFS develops a vort that seems to be a trailing part of the same wave, trailing behind it by about half a day. Takes it up over FL, and back out into the Atl. So, while not developing this exact wave, it is now also showing signs of something spinning up as part of this whole "mess"

[StormTracker]

Other than the coordinates, have any of the models really gotten anything else right about 92L? So why should we relax and believe it won't develop because the GFS & Euro says so? Just be prepared and stay ready. Hurricane seasons are like a boxes of Cracker Jacks, you never know what surprises you're going to get!

[LarryWx]

Other than the coordinates, have any of the models really gotten anything else right about 92L? So why should we relax and believe it won't develop because the GFS & Euro says so? Just be prepared and stay ready. Hurricane seasons are like a boxes of Cracker Jacks, you never know what surprises you're going to get!

Personally, I didn't say it will or won't develop. All I've been questioning is what is being seen on current satellite pics suggesting concern. Yes, it may develop, but the current pics don't really look impressive as in showing it is now organizing. Maybe I'm missing something?

[Hurricaneman]

The north end of the wave where the best convection is I see a low level broad swirl

[Emmett_Brown]

MLC to the SE looks to be competing with the Best track position. Shows up nicely on PR radar and sat loops.

https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=01101111&loop=yes

Yeah, that does indeed look interesting. Shows up nice now on visible NNE of PR. Quite a tight swirl. Will watch it, perhaps this is the one that takes over instead. The vort at the top is still really broad.

[StormTracker]

Other than the coordinates, have any of the models really gotten anything else right about 92L? So why should we relax and believe it won't develop because the GFS & Euro says so? Just be prepared and stay ready. Hurricane seasons are like a boxes of Cracker Jacks, you never know what surprises you're going to get!

Personally, I didn't say it will or won't develop. All I've been questioning is what is being seen on current satellite pics suggesting concern. Yes, it may develop, but the current pics don't really look impressive as in showing it is now organizing. Maybe I'm missing something?

That was not directed at you LarryWx. I was just saying to everyone in general to not become complacent to whatever our bread-and-butter models show. I totally agree with you on the visual of what 92L looks like right now.
https://www.ventusky.com/?p=26.3;-76.4;4&l=rain-3h&m=icon
By the way, look at 91L! Waking up from the dead!

[Hurricaneman]

Just saw the vortex near 20n and that looks like the main one, this has a LLC although broad and that area needs to be monitored for further organization, also the main reason they shouldn't cancel recon tomorrow especially if convection fires over it

[StormChaser75]

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

SUSPECT AREA (EAST OF NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS)
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74         FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
       A. 21/1800Z                   A. 22/1130Z
       B  AFXXX 01DDA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
       C. 21/1500Z                   C. 22/0815Z
       D. 25.0N 75.0W                D. 25.5N 77.0W
       E. 21/1730Z TO 21/2230Z       E. 22/1100Z TO 22/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

[cycloneye]

Recon for Monday. viewtopic.php?f=59&t=118990&p=2603571#p2603571

[SouthFLTropics]

No matter what becomes of 92L I think that it is fairly certain that South and Central Florida are in for a very wet week.

[WeatherHoon]

Man it's moving pretty fast I hope it doesn't end up ruining the eclipse for me.