ATL: JOSE - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Dean_175]

Winds as reported by ASCAT have diminished somewhat- peak winds are shown as 45kt. Earlier, it was showing at least 50kt. Most of the wind field is producing minimal tropical storm winds (35-40kt).

[Dean_175]

Looking nearly subtropical now:



300mb NAM Analysis (00Z Sept 21) shows upper level low above surface cyclone.

[WeatherGuesser]

Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 65
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 68.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket


Jose' is just sort of doodling around out there, almost lost and confused while dazing the coastal areas.

[Michele B]

Tropical Storm Jose Advisory Number 65
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...
...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.6N 68.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod
* Block Island
* Martha's Vineyard
* Nantucket


Jose' is just sort of doodling around out there, almost lost and confused while dazing the coastal areas.

That's OK in my book! As he's helping to keep Maria at bay, and unable to interact with CONUS.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like NHC pulled the plug. Jose is downgraded to a low for 00Z.

AL, 12, 2017092200, , BEST, 0, 396N, 682W, 45, 987, LO, 34, NEQ, 130, 150, 160, 180, 1012, 240, 100, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, JOSE, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 025,

['CaneFreak]

Good catch!!! I am beginning to see a westward or southwestward motion right now. This could throw a monkey wrench in the Maria forecast if it continues and it moves into the Mid-Atlantic. Something to watch for sure. That said, the guidance has been remarkably consistent on a turn and the lack of a strong ridge is definitely a hindrance for any kind of CONUS hit. Thank you Lord.

[Sciencerocks]

what happened to subtropical? I guess they don't do that anymore with systems that go from Tropical to subtropical.

I was looking back at storms in the 70's and 80's and they did do that.

[1900hurricane]

Jose was around for a long time. The 16.5 days as a tropical storm came close to Noru's 17.25 for the most this year.

[1900hurricane]

what happened to subtropical? I guess they don't do that anymore with systems that go from Tropical to subtropical.

I was looking back at storms in the 70's and 80's and they did do that.

It's rare, but it still happens on occasion.

[WeatherGuesser]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Advisory Number 70
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS LOWERED FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON JOSE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.3N 69.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose
was located near latitude 39.3 North, longitude 69.1 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6
km/h) and a slow southeastward drift is forecast for the next day
or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of
the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip
current conditions during the next couple of days. For more
information, please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Blake

---------------------


70 Advisories ain't so bad though. Right up there with the Senior Citizens.

[galaxy401]

Adios Jose! You were nice enough to spare landmasses unlike your sisters Irma and Maria. Hopefully you helped pull Maria away from the US.

Also as a person from Chicago, I'm pointing the finger at the heat wave we are having right now towards you Jose.

[bg1]

"After 70 advisories, enough is enough."
-Forecaster Blake, 2017

[tolakram]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 222034
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number 70
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017
500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017

After 70 advisories, enough is enough. The tropical-storm-force
winds from Jose have finally subsided and moved out of the
southern New England. Thus, the wind hazard to land has decreased,
and this will be the last advisory on Jose since it is already
post-tropical. A slow decay over cold water is forecast while the
low drifts southeastward to southward. The cyclone should
degenerate into a trough within 3 days as forecast by the global
models.

The swell and rip current threat will remain across large portions
of the U.S. east coast for quite some time, due to the wave field
from both Jose and Maria.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 39.3N 69.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 23/0600Z 39.1N 69.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 23/1800Z 38.7N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0600Z 38.4N 67.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z 38.2N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[CrazyC83]

After 70 advisories, fooling us and possibly reaching category 5 intensity, it's time for the , finally.

See you in 2023! We can't say that to some of your brothers and sisters - consider yourself lucky!

[WeatherGuesser]

Where is '70' in the rankings of numbers of advisories. Seems kind of high, but how high?

[Kazmit]

Jose at 130kts:

[EquusStorm]

Kyle in 2002 had 89 advisories, Alberto in 2000 had 78, and Nadine in 2012 had 88, those are the longest I remember and I checked the NHC archive to verify the exact numbers. Ivan was apparently only on 59 before its Gulf regeneration, and Irma had a total of 52. I'd say we're in the top ten all time, at least recently; sometimes tricky to access reports on storms like Inga (with 72), Ginger, Inez, etc. Shouldn't be that hard to determine given four daily advisories and a known storm length of existence.

Poking around some more in the NHC archive... even 60-advisory storms are very rare. Isabel didn't get there, nor did Igor, or Nicole of last year, or Mitch, or a bunch of others. Bertha also hit 70 tying with Jose, but honestly as far back as the archive goes, Jose is looking like a possible top five of the current active era, at least.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

After 70 advisories, fooling us and possibly reaching category 5 intensity, it's time for the , finally.

See you in 2023! We can't say that to some of your brothers and sisters - consider yourself lucky!

I think despite no damages Jose might get "Hawaii treatment" for endangering the Barbuda if i am not wrong. I could keep your verdict as "Keep" but not certain.

[Buck]

^^ Right, obviously Jose doesn't actually warrant retirement, but the emotional anxiety that the people of Barbuda (and others) might have felt, might spur them to make a case for retirement along with his sisters Irma and Maria.

[SuperMarioBros99thx]

If Jose doesn't dissapiate by this point, there is a chance where he could regenerate by 72 hours and make landfall as a hurricane on NC, greatly increasing his chances to get retired pretty well. (Nope, i found out that it was absorbed by Maria, not regenerating)