ATL: IRMA - Models

[Vdogg]

Between the frames this moves right over Jacksonville, though it stays onshore, then turns due north.

When you zoom out, it looks like she's closing the distance with Jose. This will be an interesting interaction.

[AutoPenalti]

Keep in mind that Ike had computer model forecasting from 9 years ago. We are now in 2017. Forecast accuracy has increased.

[fci]

12Z JMA agrees with the Euro:

I suspect in time that the GFS will come to the party

[MatthewsRevenge]

where is that Euro forecast point after 120?

SW FL.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like there are two camps. One is into the GOM and up FL west coast. The other is either S FL or east of S FL, and up to Carolinas.

[Vdogg]

GFS goes East Euro goes West..... This is when the smart people at the NHC go to work. I'd love to be in the bullpen listening to these forecast discussion.

Usually I'd say they'd give the Euro more credence but GFS has done quite well this round too. It'd be a tough decision. I bet they leave the track where it is at least till the 0z runs.

[CrazyC83]

The 12Z ECMWF and 00Z ECMWF seem to be almost identical in terms of landfall position though.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Irma's gone by the time it reaches western NC.



From the looks of it, Euro has it as a south Georgia landfall and too close for comfort for NC and SC folks from the western side before then though on Hr. 168.

[gatorcane]

CMC Ensembles mean have shifted some east, very close to the 12Z ECMWF OP but still a wide range of solutions:

[Stormcenter]

If the GFS shifts west at 18hrs then you may have a west trend kicking in,otherwise as many have already pointed out the NHC will split the track
down the middle of the GFS and Euro....not good for the entire state of Florida. I'm still not sold on that over Florida track. IMO

[Vdogg]

Goes poof at 192. Doesn't seem to have interacted with Jose at all.

[caneman]

933mb landfall just south of Naples moving north. 144 hours.

Hard to tell with the resolution I'm looking at but once again yet another model, this time the euro, that wants to rapidly deepen this thing just before landfall.

That's Cape Coral- Ft. MEYERS. My brother lives there.

[Steve]

where is that Euro forecast point after 120?

Comes up FL almost due north and is about to Charlotte, NC by 192 as a 1000mb Tropical Storm. It's much weaker in Western NC because it spends more time over land whereas the models that emerge back into the SW Atlantic or come in East of Florida have a shorter time to travel to W NC via coastal SC rather than all the way up from the keys. There is an Eastern fade at the end which surprises me, but I guess it can only get so far NNW with the EC.

[bohaiboy]

which side of the storm is the strongest again?

NE quadrant.

Actually depends on movement The strongest is actually the right front, so a storm moving westward, then the NW quadrant is the strongest.

[SFLcane]

so Euro essentially makes Irma take out every major city in the state of Florida, other than maybe Pensacola, the new state capitol.

Yep cant post hi-res but has 100 + mph winds for lots of areas in north and central florida hurricane force winds for a good chunk of the state.

[Blown Away]

The Euro shift W was @40 miles...

[tarheelprogrammer]

ECMWF has an issue of overdoing ridges, correct?

[Michele B]

Irma's gone by the time it reaches western NC.



From the looks of it, Euro has it as a south Georgia landfall and too close for comfort for NC and SC folks from the western side before then though on Hr. 168.

Nothing left on the Eastern Seaboard to blow down.

[wxmann_91]

ECMWF has an issue of overdoing ridges, correct?

A bit, but it's a lot less severe than GFS's issues of underdoing ridges.

[fendie]

Between the frames this moves right over Jacksonville, though it stays onshore, then turns due north

[removed image]

any idea what this is in hi res

971.3 mb at 168 hours in 12Z Euro.

Sorry if the decimal is unnecessary!