ATL: IRMA - Models

[ROCK]

NHC has been hugging the EURO for awhile on IRMA so I suspect they will continue...Also suspect the GFS to follow...JMO..

[Steve]

I was responding to a post that got deleted. So I'll just tailor that response to the geography of SW FL itself:

GEFS & GEPS Ensembles are in the Eastern Gulf. EC is in the Eastern Gulf. HWRF is in the Eastern Gulf. Only good thing is that the population of the SW tip of Florida is pretty sparse and you have the Everglades above that. So less people would be impacted with the harshest weather if it hits south of say Naples. The Keys take it and everyone up the Peninsula will get bad weather. But the Cat 4/5 Conditions would be somewhat absorbed by the land. There are other concerns farther north such as the Myakka River (among others) and certainly Gasparilla Sound/Charlotte Harbor, Sarasota Bay, Pama Sola Bay and so on as you climb north in SW FL toward Tampa.

2010 Population Map
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File ... on_map.png

[Blown Away]

12z Euro makes hard NNW turn at @81.4W which is almost due S of Key West, then NNW to @Sanibel @81.8W... So it looks like a huge shift, but it really isn't in the big 120-144 hr picture compared to 00z...

[Blown Away]

18z... Decision time for NHC, do they follow their beloved TVCN (Dark Gray Line) or Euro?? Pretty decent difference between the two near Florida...

[AutoPenalti]

18z... Decision time for NHC, do they follow their beloved TVCN (Dark Gray Line) or Euro?? Pretty decent difference between the two near Florida...

...or they could average it out.

[tolakram]

Ok, I had to moderate about 20 tit for tat posts, angry about something someone said, etc. I understand we're all nervous but the parsing of words to find offense has to stop. This thread is full of useless comments OR comments that have value but belong in the discussion thread.

Let me be very blunt.

Most people don't care where 'random poster' thinks the trend is going, or if it will be better or worse for an area, or even if they called it a few days ago. If this is you, please stop! I understand most, if not all of you aren't doing this on purpose but one careless comment can lead to 20 posts arguing over it. This is not a chat room, it's a models thread. Hopefully everyone understands.

[CrazyC83]

18z... Decision time for NHC, do they follow their beloved TVCN (Dark Gray Line) or Euro?? Pretty decent difference between the two near Florida...

I'd only shift it ever so slightly to the right. Maybe 1/3 the way to the TVCN, for continuity sake.

Both the GFS and ECMWF have done an excellent job so far, so I can't discredit either of them.

[Steve]

Has anyone been able to take a look at the European Ensembles? I'm wondering if they have any particular concentration of tracks. Thanks in advance.

[Evil Jeremy]

https://i.imgur.com/W6fDCa1.jpg
18z... Decision time for NHC, do they follow their beloved TVCN (Dark Gray Line) or Euro?? Pretty decent difference between the two near Florida...

...or they could average it out.

It's not like there's a lot of disagreement 5 days out. Any 5 day point in the Florida Straits right now is on point.

[SouthDadeFish]

12Z Euro ensembles so far span from NW tip of Cuba to NE Bahamas through five days. Center of envelope is FL, but uncertainty remains.

[JaxGator]

18z... Decision time for NHC, do they follow their beloved TVCN (Dark Gray Line) or Euro?? Pretty decent difference between the two near Florida...

Though it did shift to the right some, all of Florida is still under the gun overall.

[gatorcane]

Tight clustering now over SE Florida BUT the Euro is not shown here which is to the left of this guidance and carries a decent amount of weight:

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905150854780608512




Ryan Maue ✔ @RyanMaue
EPS ensemble spread is still unusually high for a 5-day forecast for Hurricane #Irma. Spaghettios are a mess -- ugh.
3:29 PM - Sep 5, 2017

[plazaglass]

18z... Decision time for NHC, do they follow their beloved TVCN (Dark Gray Line) or Euro?? Pretty decent difference between the two near Florida...

...or they could average it out.

Which model is the Euro on that map?

[caneman]

I'm very impressed with modeling this far for Irma. Both from a verification and to have such a tight clustering for 5 days out. Throwing out the outliers of course. Of course, well have to also see what final verification looks like.

[Evil Jeremy]

The models have been essentially the same since 00z yesterday. All show some sort of impact on South Florida, or just off either side of the state. Models have flipped around within that general area of emphasis, but they haven't budged from that general solution. That's 36 hours of consistency. So they will bounce East of Florida one run and back West the next, but that's unimportant.

[Blown Away]

Euro hours 144-168 over Florida peninsula, I'd argue the 12z is a bit E of the 00z...

[Raebie]

The models have been essentially the same since 00z yesterday. All show some sort of impact on South Florida, or just off either side of the state. Models have flipped around within that general area of emphasis, but they haven't budged from that general solution. That's 36 hours of consistency. So they will bounce East of Florida one run and back West the next, but that's unimportant.

It's important for the GA SC NC coasts. It's not just about Florida.

[Powellrm]

18z... Decision time for NHC, do they follow their beloved TVCN (Dark Gray Line) or Euro?? Pretty decent difference between the two near Florida...

...or they could average it out.

Which model is the Euro on that map?

wow what a turn in the UKMET, NVGM also.

[MGC]

Models now remind me of the tight clustering during Katrina's approach to the north gulf coast. Confidence is growing that south Florida has a very high chance of getting impacted by Irma......MGC