ATL: IRMA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 1:26Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 18
Observation Number: 09 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 8th day of the month at 0:55:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°09'N 72°03'W (21.15N 72.05W)
B. Center Fix Location: 63 statute miles (101 km) to the WSW (249°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (U.K.).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,395m (7,858ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 97kts (~ 111.6mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 7 nautical miles (8 statute miles) to the SW (220°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 306° at 107kts (From the NW at ~ 123.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the SW (222°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 921mb (27.20 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,056m (10,026ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,027m (9,931ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 300° to 120° (WNW to ESE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 146kts (~ 168.0mph) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the NNE (25°) from the flight level center at 23:38:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 140kts (~ 161.1mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) from the flight level center at 0:59:30Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 215° at 7kts (From the

Can you post the non translated versions. I swear I can't read these 'friendly' ones.

[GCANE]

Current size based on IR Analysis

[txrok]

I really feel for all the folks 'on the road' (again) -- or who are experiencing this for the first time. Been there/did that -- The same happens from Houston too. Back in 2007'ish my poor son has JUST gotten off of the plane home after being in Iraq and had to immediately load up his family with 4 kids/wife/dogs and hit the road out of town - they were on the road for a crazzzy amount of time - like 16 hours or something insane. I know he must have been so exhausted. So he got that instead of a nice welcome home. I felt so bad for him. You guys be careful out there -- they were siphoning gas in Houston. Be alert. If you have to pull over to sleep - do shiftwork for safety reasons.

We left about 2.5 hours ago, note that I live in Margate.

It is now 9:25pm, and have only traveled 15 miles, escaping.

[drewschmaltz]

I think this will ramp up significantly just before landfall if the structure is there. My reasoning is the Barbado station showed a 3 or 4 degree drop in water temps from Irma. The gulf stream just off the tip of FL is warmer and will be replenishing the fuel source. Like I've said before, the atmospheric conditions that cause the turn north could also act as a strong outflow.

In fact, I think the record length that Irma has maintained this strength is due to it following a portion of the gulf stream.

I have a question as a resident of Orlando... If Irma landfalls as a Cat 5 w/ 185MPH winds and follows the forecast path, will Orlando see the same winds it saw with Charlie. For reference, the sustained winds in Orlando were 90 MPH.

I'd like to add another question (and shameless bump this since I didn't get a response)... Are all the maps derivatives of the current forecast?

Usually there's a timestamp somewhere in the bottom or top corner - certainly of any official NWS or NHC graphics...

Yes, but are they based on the officially forecasted intensity by the NHC, or are they sometimes based on - say - a specific model solution.

[FLpanhandle91]

Hurricane force winds 72 miles out from center according to raw data file.

that one thing.. 100+ mph winds are nearly 35 miles and major huricane are 25 miles.. thats a pretty crazy large inner core..

Actually I'm seeing something closer to 100+ mph winds 57 miles from center?



005530 2109N 07203W 6974 02433 9199 +173 +084 023005 012 /// /// 03
010930 2143N 07124W 6967 03027 9926 +083 +029 151099 104 086 010 00

[GCANE]

Can you post the non translated versions. I swear I can't read these 'friendly' ones.

I'll snip the highlights next time.

[ROCK]

Not good with the expanding hurricane force winds

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/905967872136142848

[Aric Dunn]

Hurricane force winds 72 miles out from center according to raw data file.

that one thing.. 100+ mph winds are nearly 35 miles and major huricane are 25 miles.. thats a pretty crazy large inner core..

Actually I'm seeing something closer to 100+ mph winds 57 miles from center?



005530 2109N 07203W 6974 02433 9199 +173 +084 023005 012 /// /// 03
010930 2143N 07124W 6967 03027 9926 +083 +029 151099 104 086 010 00

hmm.. well I must have plugged mine in wrong i used the noaa converter. weird. I plugged in the same numbers.

[Otown_Wx]

Governor Scott canceled all Florida schools tomorrow and Monday!!!

[tolakram]

Most of the models predicted a pressure rise followed by another drop near Florida. I suppose this could be it. NHC expects a slow decline in strength, models and some enthusiastic forecaster who may also be a body builder expects irma to get back to 5 near landfall.

We shall see.

[Sciencerocks]

000
URNT15 KNHC 080136
AF309 1811A IRMA HDOB 30 20170908
012630 2224N 07041W 6965 03151 0048 +100 -025 129080 081 043 001 00
012700 2225N 07040W 6967 03150 0047 +101 -031 129081 082 042 002 00
012730 2226N 07039W 6967 03152 0047 +101 -035 131082 082 041 002 00
012800 2228N 07038W 6962 03157 0043 +105 -035 129078 082 041 002 03
012830 2230N 07039W 6970 03149 0034 +113 -047 127078 078 /// /// 03
012900 2230N 07041W 6966 03153 0037 +111 -042 126074 077 /// /// 03
012930 2229N 07043W 6966 03151 0044 +103 -038 125079 081 039 003 03
013000 2229N 07045W 6965 03150 0043 +103 -047 124081 082 042 001 03
013030 2229N 07048W 6955 03162 0041 +102 -052 124081 082 043 002 00
013100 2228N 07050W 6967 03146 0045 +100 -053 123080 082 044 002 03
013130 2228N 07053W 6965 03146 0047 +095 -043 121077 079 041 003 00
013200 2227N 07055W 6966 03144 0042 +095 -042 120078 078 042 002 00
013230 2227N 07057W 6966 03141 0039 +096 -042 119080 081 044 001 00
013300 2227N 07100W 6967 03136 0039 +097 -041 117080 081 049 002 00
013330 2228N 07103W 6966 03138 0041 +095 -033 117081 081 050 001 00
013400 2228N 07105W 6966 03135 0038 +092 -021 117082 082 050 002 00
013430 2229N 07108W 6965 03136 0041 +090 -014 116081 082 048 003 00
013500 2229N 07110W 6966 03133 0039 +090 -008 115079 079 048 002 00
013530 2229N 07113W 6965 03132 0035 +090 -010 114081 081 049 002 00
013600 2229N 07115W 6966 03129 0027 +096 -018 115081 082 049 002 00
$$
;

[Michele B]

Large areas of 3500 CAPE air ahead of Irma and before FL.
Keeping an eye on this.
Also noted earlier, this area is maintaining a persistent Theta-E ridge.
All in association with the hot water funneling out of the GOM thru the Straits.
Forecasted Miami Sounding, just below before landfall, shown below.
Air column saturated top to bottom.
IMHO all the ingredients for intensification up to landfall.

I "liked" this because it's important information and I really appreciate your analysis.
But it's getting harder and harder to actually like anything I'm reading re: the Irma forecast. Like Eric Blake, Irma makes me feel pretty sick to my stomach...

We need a "like the post / hate what I'm seeing" option!

I might like it too, if I understood what it said!

Can anyone translate?

[jasons2k]

Yes even schools in the far now fla panhandle are closed friday and Monday. Going to use them for shelters and staging areas for supplies,

I think all Georgia and Alabama schools may need the same done, and perhaps even farther like Mississippi and Louisiana?

Regardless of politics, rick scott has taken the bull by the horns and mobilised resources

Yes. Some here were blasting him earlier for asking for evacuations yesterday. I bit my tongue. It's the prudent thing to do. Given the circumstances, the earlier, the better. I told all my SE FL friends yesterday morning to get out.

[ROCK]

Most of the models predicted a pressure rise followed by another drop near Florida. I suppose this could be it. NHC expects a slow decline in strength, models and some enthusiastic forecaster who may also be a body builder expects irma to get back to 5 near landfall.

We shall see.

Yeah he's been all over it..and he hasn't been that far off with track..he's been hugging the EURO which is not a bad idea..

[jlauderdal]

Regardless of politics, rick scott has taken the bull by the horns and mobilised resources

The response from the Florida government so far has been top notch. Once the threat ramped up today, they moved all-in.

Yes, they have been on it since earlier in the week, local govt communicating clearly...govt employees killing themselves to make it happen, when do they prepare? Heck, we had garbage pickup today and im.in mandatory evac

[ozonepete]

Very sad. There's not too much to add to the latest NHC forecast and what's been said here since less than 3 days out the models are usually locked in on the right solution. Our last hope is that the close pass-by to northern Cuba will weaken this storm more than anticipated. The southern portion of Irma will pass over very high mountains before it turns right into southern Florida. Let's hope for at least that much, and good luck to everybody in south Florida. You are facing a very big test here, especially after the storm is gone. We'll all stick together.

[KBBOCA]

I have a question as a resident of Orlando... If Irma landfalls as a Cat 5 w/ 185MPH winds and follows the forecast path, will Orlando see the same winds it saw with Charlie. For reference, the sustained winds in Orlando were 90 MPH.

I'd like to add another question (and shameless bump this since I didn't get a response)... Are all the maps derivatives of the current forecast?[/quote]


Here was the Orlando wind map for Sunday night / Monday am I posted earlier from the NWS Melbourne office Graphical Forecast page:



89 knot gust (102 MPH) and I think those might yet go up if the track up the middle verifies. Check out NWS graphical forecast page here:

https://digital.weather.gov/?zoom=7&lat ... mxmz=false

[MONTEGUT_LA]

Yes even schools in the far now fla panhandle are closed friday and Monday. Going to use them for shelters and staging areas for supplies,

I think all Georgia and Alabama schools may need the same done, and perhaps even farther like Mississippi and Louisiana?

That won't happen in my parish... the world could be ending and school would still be open. Lol

[birddogsc]

I'm anticipating that South Carolina schools will be closed Monday and Tuesday. School buses are likely to be deployed moving out people without transportation.