ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19989
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7301 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:38 pm

Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
Kohlecane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 591
Age: 33
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:03 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7302 Postby Kohlecane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:38 pm

Could the new TD strengthen that trof or have any impact ?
0 likes   
Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!

This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23689
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7303 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:39 pm

36 hours. 18Z GFS slightly north of 12Z:

Image
0 likes   
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7304 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:40 pm

utweather wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:I'm calling BS, it has Irma heading wnw which it's not, it's still heading at a decent pace due west.


Post #3970 on discussion board from Michele B shows satellite loop of wnw movement.

Just now saw that. :oops:
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneFrances04
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 597
Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:09 am
Location: Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7305 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:40 pm

Through 42 hours it already looks like the 18z GFS is at odds with the Euro/UKMET. The 0z runs tonight should be interesting.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kohlecane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 591
Age: 33
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:03 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7306 Postby Kohlecane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:40 pm

tolakram wrote:Image

Thats a significant jump NW than 06z and 12z no.....
1 likes   
Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!

This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7307 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:41 pm

Kohlecane wrote:Could the new TD strengthen that trof or have any impact ?

I don't see how a weak tropical cyclone buried in the SW BoC could have much impact on the future track of Irma.
1 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19989
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7308 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:42 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7309 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:43 pm

Unfortunately I'm thinking the future of Irma is starting to become a nowcast as the models are still not sold on a final solution even just 36-48hrs. out.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23689
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7310 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:44 pm

That is a pretty decent shift north for the GFS at 54 hours (given we are in the short-range) - perhaps this ends up more east of FL on the turn? Bahamas not so lucky though. Let's see how the run ends.

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:45 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kohlecane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 591
Age: 33
Joined: Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:03 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7311 Postby Kohlecane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:45 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Unfortunately I'm thinking the future of Irma is starting to become a nowcast as the models are still not sold on a final solution even just 36-48hrs. out.

Truly amazing to see this battle take place..ill take my chances tomorrow nights 00z
1 likes   
Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!

This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19989
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7312 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:48 pm

Models are amazingly close 3 days out, it's 5 to 7 that's the problem.
3 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
BucMan2
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 108
Joined: Fri Aug 21, 2015 10:05 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7313 Postby BucMan2 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:48 pm

Bottomline in my opinion is it as it usually does will come down to which model Euro (west Coast) or GFS (east coast) is correct.
It seems on this run that so far is very east and somewhat north- Something is fishy- can't pinpoint it
1 likes   
Top
tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 19989
Age: 61
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7314 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:49 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Top
TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7315 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:50 pm

I'm thinking the GFS is too far north now.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23689
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7316 Postby gatorcane » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:50 pm

wow pretty big shift north with the 18Z GFS folks...

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
meriland29
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 770
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7317 Postby meriland29 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:50 pm

Maybe she will swing out to sea this run? We shall see.
1 likes   
Top
Vdogg
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 621
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:56 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7318 Postby Vdogg » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:50 pm

MrJames wrote:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Can someone post the Ensembles for the ukmet. I'm sure it's been posted, but I can't find it.


12z UKMet Ensembles
Image

They're really hooking NNE hard after the turn. Weren't most of them due north last run?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10140
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7319 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:53 pm

18z GFS... 60 (1 degree) shift N at 78 hours...
0 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…
Top
User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7320 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Tue Sep 05, 2017 4:53 pm

GFS OTS this run?
1 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 45 guests