ATL: HARVEY - Models

[stormreader]

Yes, more and more likely for a US landfall. Got to give credit to Hurricanemaster and to Rock for their informative posts in this regard. I have also been on the US landfall side for a day and a half now. Posted a couple of times that a south Texas landfall might actually be a "conservative" opinion on where Harvey might go. Pretty sure there is going to be quite a bit of northern movement in the GOM. Looks like there will be enough high pressure over Fl to keep 92L east of that state. But there could be a significant weakness in the western GOM (Texas coast) allowing Harvey to ride up parallel to the coast quite a bit farther north than is currently anticipated by the mainstream (fake news) models. Really think that Galveston to Cameron, La is very possible. At a minimum I think a landfall north of the border (US).

[stormreader]

Interesting change in the GFS. Definitely need to keep an eye on Harvey next week if you're in the western GOM region.

Yep. I'm expecting the 0z Euro to shift north tonight as well. Texas definitely needs to keep a close eye on Harvey.

No doubt. Even the upper Texas coast, or perhaps SW La if there is a slowing.

[South Texas Storms]

0z Euro shifts north from 12z up to Tampico. Definite northward shift in the 0z guidance tonight.

[stormlover2013]

And still a week away!! Could keep seeing more shifts north what do u think south Texas storms?

[StormChaser75]

[South Texas Storms]

And still a week away!! Could keep seeing more shifts north what do u think south Texas storms?

I think anywhere from Veracruz to Galveston is in play, with the greatest risk currently across northern Mexico. Anyone in the western Gulf needs to keep a close eye on Harvey.

[Cpv17]

The Euro is all over the place after 96-120 hours. Having a hard time with the timing of the trough. Much uncertainty ahead.

[stormreader]

That's too far south. Euro was right up front with that earlier run off the central Texas coast. It backed off. But other models (not necessarily tropical) have taken up the same general forecast (parallel to the Texas coast). They are farther north than the current Euro. I think future runs will show the Euro getting back to where it was in the about 18-20 hours ago. Somewhere off the central Texas coast. Much greater tendency north now. Euro very much in the mix, but in light of recent failures, other models have begun to assert themselves. They are also hinting at a north tendency along the S Texas coast. GFS hardly to be considered at all.

[stormreader]

That's too far south. Euro was right up front with that earlier run off the central Texas coast. It backed off. But other models (not necessarily tropical) have taken up the same general forecast (parallel to the Texas coast). They are farther north than the current Euro. I think future runs will show the Euro getting back to where it was in the about 18-20 hours ago. Somewhere off the central Texas coast. Much greater tendency north now. Euro very much in the mix, but in light of recent failures, other models have begun to assert themselves. They are also hinting at a north tendency along the S Texas coast. GFS hardly to be considered at all.

[Cpv17]

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Based on what I'm seeing is that most models take this towards Northern Mexico but it's still too far out to know for sure

[NDG]

Strength and forward speed of Harvey over the next 72 hrs will dictate a lot if it will feel the big weakness developing over the southern US & northern GOM next week.

[NDG]

Good 'ole GFS continues to struggle with the steering forecast in its 5-10 day range, at one point showing Harvey to redevelope on the EPAC due to a strong ridge it was forecasting to be in place over the NW GOM.
Trending closer to the Euro.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Yes, more and more likely for a US landfall. Got to give credit to Hurricanemaster and to Rock for their informative posts in this regard. I have also been on the US landfall side for a day and a half now. Posted a couple of times that a south Texas landfall might actually be a "conservative" opinion on where Harvey might go. Pretty sure there is going to be quite a bit of northern movement in the GOM. Looks like there will be enough high pressure over Fl to keep 92L east of that state. But there could be a significant weakness in the western GOM (Texas coast) allowing Harvey to ride up parallel to the coast quite a bit farther north than is currently anticipated by the mainstream (fake news) models. Really think that Galveston to Cameron, La is very possible. At a minimum I think a landfall north of the border (US).

Yeah I tried for explain a few days ago that the steering pattern was very complex and here we are lol

[Alyono]

6Z GFS immediately backed off of any US threat. It barely even makes the BOC

Please stop over hyping every single model run

[mcheer23]

6Z GFS immediately backed off of any US threat. It barely even makes the BOC

Please stop over hyping every single model run

The trend has clearly been north

[Alyono]

6Z GFS immediately backed off of any US threat. It barely even makes the BOC

Please stop over hyping every single model run

The trend has clearly been north

there has been no real trend. 6Z NAVGEM also shifted south. Models continue to ping pong

[TexasBreeze]

Posters have to talk about every single model run, because that is just the way it is!!!

[SoupBone]

6Z GFS immediately backed off of any US threat. It barely even makes the BOC

Please stop over hyping every single model run

The trend has clearly been north

there has been no real trend. 6Z NAVGEM also shifted south. Models continue to ping pong

Thank you. I see runs burying it, and runs taking to a nice border TexMex restaurant, but there have been no trends one way or the other regarding Texas vs Mexico. My guess is late Sunday/Early Monday before we get a much better idea, and these models stop flipping back and forth.

[stormreader]

6Z GFS immediately backed off of any US threat. It barely even makes the BOC

Please stop over hyping every single model run

The trend has clearly been north

there has been no real trend. 6Z NAVGEM also shifted south. Models continue to ping pong

Seems like they're ping-ponging in a general north direction. Two bounces forward then one back.