ATL: MARIA - Models

[Ken711]

Could be NC-bound this run of the GFS. Pretty big blocking ridge over the NE US.

Outer Banks are going to come into view by all the models over time once the Jose-affect is finally discounted.

[RL3AO]

Some of us have been saying this for a couple days. If the models are off with Jose, it will likely mean a track further west. It seems to me that the models are off quite a bit with Jose.

[gatorcane]

CMC looks to stall Maria and then turn her west towards SE US Coast but in the long-range.

[drezee]

Verbatim...looks like a very close call but maybe no landfall

[ronjon]

It isn't so much what the 12Z GFS will or won't do on the US east coast to me that is that important. It is the sig shift westward of Maria that is most sig to me.

Yes the change to the upper air pattern due to Jose weakening is ominous - the long wave pattern of strong ridging over the eastern US means perhaps future west shifts are in the cards. And this is still 7-9 days out.

[RL3AO]

Keep in mind, while the GFS does have a ridge with above average heights, the flow is more from the S and SW. The result is more of a side swipe instead of driving into the US.

[sma10]

It isn't so much what the 12Z GFS will or won't do on the US east coast to me that is that important. It is the sig shift westward of Maria that is most sig to me.

Yes the change to the upper air pattern due to Jose weakening is ominous - the long wave pattern of strong ridging over the eastern US means perhaps future west shifts are in the cards. And this is still 7-9 days out.

And further to Larry's point, the million dollar question is how far to the West is the potential correction if the models are off with Jose?

[1900hurricane]

Keep in mind, while the GFS does have a ridge with above average heights, the flow is more from the S and SW. The result is more of a side swipe instead of driving into the US.

Just to further illustrate this, here is the the 500 mb vorticity and wind vector chart for the same region at the same time.

[tolakram]

What?

[artist]

Model forecast errors for Maria, up to day 4

http://tropicalatlantic.com/models/mode ... e#position

[GCANE]

Shredding of Jose and Run-to-Run Ridge Building.
Its almost a given now.

[LarryWx]

12Z GEFS looks consistent with the more ominous 12Z GFS shift so far.

[Ken711]

What?

[im g]https://i.imgur.com/hMue5Mb.gif[/img]

Exactly. A probable Cat 3-4 hurricane dissipating after a glancing blow to NC. Not likely. More likely continues up the Mid-Atlantic coast or dives inland into NC.

[AutoPenalti]

It's one run but I would not be the least bit surprised if we start seeing more West shifts.

[Ken711]

Shredding of Jose and Run-to-Run Ridge Building.
Its almost a given now.

Unfortunately, I agree. I don't see any way the CONUS isn't impacted, especially NC and VA.

[LarryWx]

Several FL hits on the 12Z GEFS unlike recent GEFS runs along with one well out into the Gulf.

[OntarioEggplant]

A small group of GEFS members now getting uncomfortably close to South Florida

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF is coming in almost a degree further south at 60 hours.

[SouthFLTropics]

A small group of GEFS members now getting uncomfortably close to South Florida

Where are y'all pulling the GEFS data from??? I haven't seen it updated on TT as of yet.

[SouthFLTropics]

HMON is coming in SW of the 06z as well.