ATL: IRMA - Models

[Ken711]

18z HWRF trending N than 12z...

Wonder if it stays north of Cuba instead plowing through it.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Is there a chance the models are wrong, and instead of swinging back into the SE coastline it gets picked up by the trough?

The trough pick up is indeed possible. I do think they're overdoing the trough though. The trough is supposed to be around the NE around here and then leave once it moves further NE. Least that's what GFS thinks will happen via the Carolina hit on their latest run.

[Ken711]

Is there a chance the models are wrong, and instead of swinging back into the SE coastline it gets picked up by the trough?

Trough already lifts out well before the model runs have it north enough.

[gatorcane]

18Z HWRF 63 hours:

[tgenius]

18z HWRF trending N than 12z...

Wonder if it stays north of Cuba instead plowing through it.

From what I can see so far, it looks like it might be north enough to miss or barely scrape cuba, we'll see further on the run.

[CrazyC83]

IMO. didnt UK do really well with Matthew last year?

UKMET was the first to catch the turn along the southeast coast for Matthew.

[Frank P]

looks a full degree north

[utweather]

18z HWRF trending N than 12z...

Wonder if it stays north of Cuba instead plowing through it.

Thats what I am thinking. There was a sw bend in one of the models(maybe ukmet?) when it was near the Bahamas taking it to Cuba that I don't see happening and instead continuing on a wnw then nw path towards south Florida.

[stormreader]

Is there a chance the models are wrong, and instead of swinging back into the SE coastline it gets picked up by the trough?

Still possible, I guess, but highly unlikely. The growing consensus over the last several days has been a west trend. Euro most reliable of all still there at five days out. GFS swing back east is is suspect right now. Its taking the most simplistic solution, the simple bending with the strong trough. I don't think NHC is of a mind to find a compromise between Euro and GFS at this point either. Look for them to hold more west, unless Euro gives them strong reason with next couple of runs to swing east.

[gatorcane]

looks a full degree north

Yep, might miss Cuba, not good for Florida:

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Everyone keeps asking "Is it possible?" about the shift in the models to the east, and they seem mystified. Yesterday, when Irma went Cat 4 ahead of schedule, I brought up the fact that stronger storms tried to go poleward, and with Irma strengthening quicker, she might turn north sooner than expected, but that idea was quickly and firmly shut down by people on this board. "Is it possible" that strong storms of this type tend to make their own environments, and won't to go towards the pole? Maybe so?

[Bocadude85]

18Z HMON shifts southwest with landfall in Key Largo.

[stormreader]

18Z HMON shifts southwest with landfall in Key Largo.

Close to Euro landfall.

[TheStormExpert]

18z GEFS Ensembles slightly more clustered over the FL peninsula with 3 going east of FL.

[Ken711]

looks a full degree north

Yep, might miss Cuba, not good for Florida:

Still heading W, is the speed the same this run if it misses Cuba?

[Voltron]

https://t.co/NfFeMYIzJR

This was posted a bit earlier and really does a great job of explaining all the festure that ia going on. But it does appear a more shift east and north along the SE coast. If this pains out man o man! Interesting modeling

[stormreader]

Everyone keeps asking "Is it possible?" about the shift in the models to the east, and they seem mystified. Yesterday, when Irma went Cat 4 ahead of schedule, I brought up the fact that stronger storms tried to go poleward, and with Irma strengthening quicker, she might turn north sooner than expected, but that idea was quickly and firmly shut down by people on this board. "Is it possible" that strong storms of this type tend to make their own environments, and won't to go towards the pole? Maybe so?

Yes, but I think the key is the overall trend over a several day period, for models to move west. The model leader is still there. GfS in last couple of runs has swung back east, but that trend is not as established or long lasting as the earlier moves to the west. With the Euro still there, and others still there too, its not alone either, I think the NHC will continue to give greater credence to further west, until further notice.

[TheStormExpert]

As some have said throughout the season, the HWRF has data from the GFS.

[Frank P]

actually its north of due west... from what I can see

[Frank P]

may scrap the northern coast of Cuba with south eye wall.. lets see