ATL: IRMA - Models

[Bamagirl2408]

As some have said throughout the season, the HWRF has data from the GFS.

Jim cantore made a post about the HWRF earlier indicating alot of data they use is in it. I cannot remember if it was his FB or Twitter but I found it interesting.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Everyone keeps asking "Is it possible?" about the shift in the models to the east, and they seem mystified. Yesterday, when Irma went Cat 4 ahead of schedule, I brought up the fact that stronger storms tried to go poleward, and with Irma strengthening quicker, she might turn north sooner than expected, but that idea was quickly and firmly shut down by people on this board. "Is it possible" that strong storms of this type tend to make their own environments, and won't to go towards the pole? Maybe so?

Yes, but I think the key is the overall trend over a several day period, for models to move west. The model leader is still there. GfS in last couple of runs has swung back east, but that trend is not as established or long lasting as the earlier moves to the west. With the Euro still there, and others still there too, its not alone either, I think the NHC will continue to give greater credence to further west, until further notice.

I am a a fan of the trend is your friend. Look back, the GFS has been the leader in setting the trend for the entire storm. Remember, it was the first one to plow into Florida from the south?

[Bocadude85]

18z GEFS Ensembles slightly more clustered over the FL peninsula with 3 going east of FL.

The GFS ensembles take Irma up the spine of Florida..the GFS OP run is the east outlier...when in doubt go with the ensembles.

[Emmett_Brown]

18z GEFS Ensembles slightly more clustered over the FL peninsula with 3 going east of FL.

The 18z GEFS ensemble looks a little further W while over FL than the 12z run.

[Frank P]

yep a glancing blow to Cuba with the southern eye wall...looks almost due west the past several plots..

[SouthFLTropics]

GEFS 12z to 18z Ensemble Trend

Corrected with proper graphic

Let's try this one more time

[GTStorm]

Everyone keeps asking "Is it possible?" about the shift in the models to the east, and they seem mystified. Yesterday, when Irma went Cat 4 ahead of schedule, I brought up the fact that stronger storms tried to go poleward, and with Irma strengthening quicker, she might turn north sooner than expected, but that idea was quickly and firmly shut down by people on this board. "Is it possible" that strong storms of this type tend to make their own environments, and won't to go towards the pole? Maybe so?

Yes, but I think the key is the overall trend over a several day period, for models to move west. The model leader is still there. GfS in last couple of runs has swung back east, but that trend is not as established or long lasting as the earlier moves to the west. With the Euro still there, and others still there too, its not alone either, I think the NHC will continue to give greater credence to further west, until further notice.

And any trend needs a starting point, so let's hope that this is the start of one back east, maybe indicating that this ultimately winds up an out-to-sea result (and, of course, Irma complies...)

[Frank P]

hwrf h96 SSE of FL BP 917 moving just north of due west still

[fci]

Hurricane Irma may pull a hurricane Matthew. Why did the gfs model go so Far East now. People in south Florida are panicking. everyone needs to relax take a deep breathe and wait for a hurricane watch and then believe the models. Just an opinion not a forecast.

The thing is, not all of the computer models take it east. Most Meteorologists and the NHC don't think it will go to the east of Florida. It's possible it might but it's too much of a risk at this point now to tell them not to start preparing even if it it doesn't.

NHC has Irma as far west as 81.4 in 5 days so they aren't buying the East of Florida solution.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF should hook north soon if it is going to follow with the other models.

[Frank P]

h102 south of FL pressure 913 still looks WNW

[GTStorm]

Hurricane Irma may pull a hurricane Matthew. Why did the gfs model go so Far East now. People in south Florida are panicking. everyone needs to relax take a deep breathe and wait for a hurricane watch and then believe the models. Just an opinion not a forecast.

The thing is, not all of the computer models take it east. Most Meteorologists and the NHC don't think it will go to the east of Florida. It's possible it might but it's too much of a risk at this point now to tell them not to start preparing even if it it doesn't.

NHC has Irma as far west as 81.4 in 5 days so they aren't buying the East of Florida solution.

Would their 5pm update consider the 18z model run?

[stormreader]

h102 south of FL pressure 913 still looks WNW

Sounds like its going to be further west than Euro. Believe you said the HWRF track did not dip as far south into Cuba, too, true????

[Frank P]

h102 south of FL pressure 913 still looks WNW

Sounds like its going to be further west than Euro. Believe you said the HWRF track did not dip as far south into Cuba, too, true????

barely scraped the coast, did not dent Irma any...

[Ken711]

h102 south of FL pressure 913 still looks WNW

Shouldn't it be turning NW now?

[RL3AO]

With the GFS being to the right of almost every one of it's own ensembles, I don't see how you can take it as any type of "trend". If you're in Florida, a single run of the GFS should not be delaying your preparations.

[Frank P]

H111 nw motion.. pressure 914...

[Bocadude85]

h102 south of FL pressure 913 still looks WNW

Sounds like its going to be further west than Euro. Believe you said the HWRF track did not dip as far south into Cuba, too, true????

The HWRF is going to end up with a similar track to the Euro..heading north with what will be a landfall in mainland Monroe county after hitting the keys..

[stormreader]

H111 nw motion.. pressure down to 914...

Can't see the images yet, guessing a landfall north of the keys on the west coast??

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://pparker.org/hurricanes/hurricane_history.htm