ATL: IRMA - Models

[gatorcane]

HWRF simulated IR: Metro SE Florida on dirty side:

[stormreader]

HWRF 18Z Florida landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/Iooth4s.png

Its early, but from everything we've seen with overall models trends covering 3-4 days or so, that landfall might not be too far off the actual landfall down the line. Just saying. Wait for Euro, tonight. If I had to really call out my own personal pick, I might go just a little farther up the Fl coast there, toward Ft. Myers, maybe. I think thats where model trends have generally been converging. Not quite as much of an immediate sharp turn. But a little more gradual north toward Ft. Myers.

[miamijaaz]

HWRF simulated IR: Metro SE Florida on dirty side:

Up the spine, almost dead center. Eye would not go over heavily populated areas of South Florida, but it would put Miami, Broward and WPB counties on the dirty side of the storm.

[tgenius]

HWRF 18Z Florida landfall.

Ironically almost in the same location as Wilma almost 12 years ago.

But MUCH different entry point, going N-S vs W-E.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

With the GFS being to the right of almost every one of it's own ensembles, I don't see how you can take it as any type of "trend". If you're in Florida, a single run of the GFS should not be delaying your preparations.

If the euro starts coming east then maybe we have something...listen to rl3a0 and maintain preps

You put too much faith in the EC NHC has been nailing the track with accuracy i have never
seen before from any agency worldwide.

[stormreader]

HWRF 18Z Florida landfall.

https://i.imgur.com/Iooth4s.png

Its early, but from everything we've seen with overall models trends covering 3-4 days or so, that landfall might not be too far off the actual landfall down the line. Just saying. Wait for Euro, tonight. If I had to really call out my own personal pick, I might go just a little farther up the Fl coast there, toward Ft. Myers, maybe. I think thats where model trends have generally been converging. Not quite as much of an immediate sharp turn. But a little more gradual north toward Ft. Myers.

Had to brush up on my Fl geography. Not Ft. Myers, but maybe Naples. Thats about where I see the best probabilities for eventual model consensus and landfall. Naples.

[wxman57]

The NHC track is closest to the ECMWF, actually. Trend in the ensembles is a little bit of an earlier northward turn. GFS is east of the Canadian & European (ensemble mean). Both the EC & CMC indicate a hit on the southern FL Peninsula. Timing of the turn is the key, and we may not be certain of the turn until it begins this weekend.

[PandaCitrus]

HWRF simulated IR: Metro SE Florida on dirty side

My best guess is this scenario would be like Wilma +. Assuming a 150MPH landfall, it would put solid Cat 2/3 winds across both Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/West Palm Beach and Naples/Ft. Myers markets. Areas directly in the eyewall such as southwest Miami-Dade and eastern portions of Collier and Lee County would experience Cat 4 conditions.

[gatorcane]

[tgenius]

The NHC track is closest to the ECMWF, actually. Trend in the ensembles is a little bit of an earlier northward turn. GFS is east of the Canadian & European (ensemble mean). Both the EC & CMC indicate a hit on the southern FL Peninsula. Timing of the turn is the key, and we may not be certain of the turn until it begins this weekend.

wxman, do you find the HWRF run that just went through as plausible or maybe even probable? Just thinking we might get the dirty side.

[RL3AO]

A small sample size, but the GFS error has been 3 to 4x higher than the Euro so far at days 4 and 5. There is a reason the NHC is leaning towards it.



http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/

[stormreader]

The HWRF is going to end up with a similar track to the Euro..heading north with what will be a landfall in mainland Monroe county after hitting the keys..

And that, I think, is around where the NHC will keep their track focused, for now. Euro run tonight, of course, very important. But just my own guess, it won't swing back east any. West trends have been pretty firmly established over last several days. Guessing it will remain close to present location near keys or just above in Monroe county. Actually think, it might even tick a little further west in the next couple of runs, and their might not be as much south dip over Cuba on the way. Maybe a little further north on the Fl West Coast in the next couple of days. Think the HWRF might be on to something, here. As for GFS, think it might keep east for another run or so, before swinging back.

Realize we're still talking 5 days out.

Still talking five days out, I know. I'm trying to follow the large trends established over the past several days of further west, and I'm also going with that gradual consistent move in that direction. Not a whole lot of flip flopping from Euro during that move west. The south dip into Cuba might be a little erratic. If I had to look for anything, it might get ironed out so that Irma maybe just scrapes the north coast of Cuba and then perhaps, just perhaps, comes in a little further west than now expected, through the keys, but a more gradual north move into Naples. IMO

[Ken711]

The NHC track is closest to the ECMWF, actually. Trend in the ensembles is a little bit of an earlier northward turn. GFS is east of the Canadian & European (ensemble mean). Both the EC & CMC indicate a hit on the southern FL Peninsula. Timing of the turn is the key, and we may not be certain of the turn until it begins this weekend.

With the ensembles showing an earlier northward turn, would that support further model runs up the east coast of FL as the GFS 18Z showed?

[Bocadude85]

The NHC track is closest to the ECMWF, actually. Trend in the ensembles is a little bit of an earlier northward turn. GFS is east of the Canadian & European (ensemble mean). Both the EC & CMC indicate a hit on the southern FL Peninsula. Timing of the turn is the key, and we may not be certain of the turn until it begins this weekend.

But the 18Z GFS ensembles are west of the op run and more inline with the Euro, wouldn't that indicate that the GFS OP is to far east?

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905223128414134273




Michael Ventrice ✔ @MJVentrice
Growing support for #HurricaneIrma impacts in #Miami this weekend. Calibrated ECMWF EPS up to 70%, Calibrated GFS Ensembles at 80%
8:16 PM - Sep 5, 2017

[AutoPenalti]

Wouldn't the NE quadrant have the highest winds? Isn't the eye where it's calm?

[Bamagirl2408]

Keep in mind I have less than a dozen posts ever. Any chance this left hook shown at 168 hours could happen earlier around North Gulf Coast than later? Pressure looks still pretty low. Any chance of getting the hook early?

[JPmia]

Ugh
 https://twitter.com/adriansweather/status/905221488290267136

[chris_fit]

Here's the pasta models starting 09/03 06z though today, 09/05 18z

[tolakram]

18Z HWRF run