ATL: IRMA - Models

[Steve]

Keep in mind I have less than a dozen posts ever. Any chance this left hook shown at 168 hours could happen earlier around North Gulf Coast than later? Pressure looks still pretty low. Any chance of getting the hook early?[/quote]

0% in my opinion. 0.

[Steve H.]

Just got a look at the 18z model runs...looks like it's trending east! IS this just the beginning of a trend? Maybe it does stay offshore.

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[robbielyn]

:uarrow: The TVCN and TVCX (consensus tracks) are well east of NHC track. You got to think they move their track east at the 11pm update even if it is a little east for continuity.

they may wait for the euro and do a blend of the two.

[gigabite]

This is the 9-5-17 NHC 5 day plot over this weeks SST raster.

[MatthewsRevenge]

Don't think Cuba will escape much of this. NHC just put Cuba under a hurricane watch.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/TropicsWatch/status/905238016599482368

[Kingarabian]

Just looked at the CIMSS steering layers. A 962mb system will indeed track further west vs a sub 940mb system which will be further east. If this is true, then the GFS solution is not that crazy.

[TheStormExpert]

Interesting.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905239440607600640




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905239919848824832

[weathermimmi]

Do you think NHC will shift east on the next advisory?

[Ken711]

Do you think NHC will shift east on the next advisory?

JMO, but I think the Euro will shift east as well the advisory.

[jdjaguar]

Just looked at the CIMSS steering layers. A 962mb system will indeed track further west vs a sub 940mb system which will be further east. If this is true, then the GFS solution is not that crazy.

System is currently 916mb

[MatthewsRevenge]

Lurked at the Weather Underground board, someone said the eastward tracks today may be an "over-correction".

I don't know what to believe. I still don't think NHC is gonna abruptly shift right...

[invest man]

00Z plots - quite a number of models have shifted east. Note Euro is not on this plot. Look closely: TVCN (consensus track) is just east of Florida:

According to that graph the ofci is a west outlayer! IM

[gigabite]

Do you think NHC will shift east on the next advisory?

I believe that a storms energy is derived from the temperature of the water and it will follow the flow of the warmer water.

[Javlin]

Good view of the trof https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loo ... nhanced+24

[MatthewsRevenge]

This is still difficult to track. I won't be surprised if some of the models go back west. This thing is so huge though.

[Blown Away]

 https://twitter.com/TropicsWatch/status/905238016599482368

Haven't seen this... Put's it all in perspective ATM...

[PTPatrick]

For those in the panhandle west of apalachicola...
I would say at this point the model agreement is good that you will be on the west side of this storm. Yes, storms have missed the northeast turn like Katrina and Ivan, but that was 12 years ago. Models are arguably better. Not saying it won't happen, and the models still have time to change. it wouldn't take a "huge" swing to put Pensacola or even Alabama in play but its seeming less likely by the day. If I lived in Tallahassee I would be prepping. If I lived in Pensacola I'd be watching and make sure i have the pieces in place to move prep to completion quickly. Just my 2 cents and not a forecast...

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Waiting on the TCVN plot myself i think the plot above maybe just interpolated from 18z

[capepoint]

I still have trouble believing that a storm this strong will turn on a dime. A more rounded turn would carry it further west and expose more of Fla to the east eyewall.