ATL: IRMA - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
kthmcc7319
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 27
Age: 52
Joined: Sun Sep 03, 2017 7:07 pm
Location: Niceville, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7561 Postby kthmcc7319 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:13 pm

Jag95 wrote:
Bamagirl2408 wrote:Keep in mind I have less than a dozen posts ever. Any chance this left hook shown at 168 hours could happen earlier around North Gulf Coast than later? Pressure looks still pretty low. Any chance of getting the hook early?


Right now I'm more concerned with it taking the predicted north hook and keeping it out of the GOM. Images of Ivan always comes to mind with these types. Getting the left hook is better than the right uppercut. A little different scenario here as always, but until it takes that north direction I'm concerned, even this far west.



I'm with you Jag95. in the FL Panhandle. I am uneasy until that north turn predicted for Sunday actually happens. I know almost all the models predict it, but this storm has a lot of power and is stronger than anything else out there. I believe Ivan and Katrina were predicted to make quick northward turn and didn't. I feel like if I wait until Sunday to evacuate with my family, it's too late.
1 likes   

User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9620
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: Not a state-caster

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7562 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:15 pm

Bamagirl2408 wrote:


Keep in mind I have less than a dozen posts ever. Any chance this left hook shown at 168 hours could happen earlier around North Gulf Coast than later? Pressure looks still pretty low. Any chance of getting the hook early?[/quote]

0% in my opinion. 0.
4 likes   

Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2146
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7563 Postby Steve H. » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:17 pm

Just got a look at the 18z model runs...looks like it's trending east! 8-) IS this just the beginning of a trend? Maybe it does stay offshore.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
1 likes   

User avatar
robbielyn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1298
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 9:45 am
Location: brooksville, fl

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7564 Postby robbielyn » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:18 pm

gatorcane wrote::uarrow: The TVCN and TVCX (consensus tracks) are well east of NHC track. You got to think they move their track east at the 11pm update even if it is a little east for continuity.

they may wait for the euro and do a blend of the two.
Last edited by robbielyn on Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   
Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting. :D

User avatar
gigabite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 916
Age: 72
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 4:09 pm
Location: Naples, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7565 Postby gigabite » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:19 pm

Image
This is the 9-5-17 NHC 5 day plot over this weeks SST raster.
2 likes   

MatthewsRevenge

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7566 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:20 pm

Don't think Cuba will escape much of this. NHC just put Cuba under a hurricane watch.
1 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7567 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:21 pm

3 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15979
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7568 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:22 pm

Just looked at the CIMSS steering layers. A 962mb system will indeed track further west vs a sub 940mb system which will be further east. If this is true, then the GFS solution is not that crazy.
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7569 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:22 pm

Last edited by TheStormExpert on Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes   

weathermimmi
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 27
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2016 9:16 pm
Location: Destin/FWB Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7570 Postby weathermimmi » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:24 pm

Do you think NHC will shift east on the next advisory?
0 likes   

Ken711
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1074
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7571 Postby Ken711 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:27 pm

weathermimmi wrote:Do you think NHC will shift east on the next advisory?


JMO, but I think the Euro will shift east as well the advisory.
1 likes   

jdjaguar
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 551
Joined: Fri Aug 26, 2005 12:07 pm
Location: Jacksonville Beach, FL

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7572 Postby jdjaguar » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:27 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Just looked at the CIMSS steering layers. A 962mb system will indeed track further west vs a sub 940mb system which will be further east. If this is true, then the GFS solution is not that crazy.

System is currently 916mb
2 likes   

MatthewsRevenge

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7573 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:28 pm

Lurked at the Weather Underground board, someone said the eastward tracks today may be an "over-correction".

I don't know what to believe. I still don't think NHC is gonna abruptly shift right...
1 likes   

invest man
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 206
Joined: Sun Aug 17, 2008 8:12 pm

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7574 Postby invest man » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:32 pm

gatorcane wrote:00Z plots - quite a number of models have shifted east. Note Euro is not on this plot. Look closely: TVCN (consensus track) is just east of Florida:

Image

According to that graph the ofci is a west outlayer! IM
1 likes   

User avatar
gigabite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 916
Age: 72
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 4:09 pm
Location: Naples, Florida

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7575 Postby gigabite » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:32 pm

weathermimmi wrote:Do you think NHC will shift east on the next advisory?

I believe that a storms energy is derived from the temperature of the water and it will follow the flow of the warmer water.
0 likes   

Javlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1620
Age: 64
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 7:58 pm
Location: ms gulf coast

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7576 Postby Javlin » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:32 pm

1 likes   

MatthewsRevenge

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7577 Postby MatthewsRevenge » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:33 pm

This is still difficult to track. I won't be surprised if some of the models go back west. This thing is so huge though. :double:
0 likes   

User avatar
Blown Away
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10145
Joined: Wed May 26, 2004 6:17 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7578 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:34 pm



Haven't seen this... Put's it all in perspective ATM...
1 likes   
Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
Hurricane Brush Experience: Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22…

User avatar
PTPatrick
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1831
Joined: Sat Jun 12, 2004 8:38 am

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7579 Postby PTPatrick » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:34 pm

For those in the panhandle west of apalachicola...
I would say at this point the model agreement is good that you will be on the west side of this storm. Yes, storms have missed the northeast turn like Katrina and Ivan, but that was 12 years ago. Models are arguably better. Not saying it won't happen, and the models still have time to change. it wouldn't take a "huge" swing to put Pensacola or even Alabama in play but its seeming less likely by the day. If I lived in Tallahassee I would be prepping. If I lived in Pensacola I'd be watching and make sure i have the pieces in place to move prep to completion quickly. Just my 2 cents and not a forecast...
4 likes   

Digital-TC-Chaser

Re: ATL: IRMA - Models

#7580 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:35 pm

Waiting on the TCVN plot myself i think the plot above maybe just interpolated from 18z
1 likes   


Return to “2017”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests