ATL: IRMA - Models

[MatthewsRevenge]

Good view of the trof https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loo ... nhanced+24

Looking at that loop, I just don't see this hitting Cuba. It's gaining too much latitude. The NHC official says the storm is moving west, but by their own recon it's been moving WNW for hours now. I just don't get it.

They wanna be on the safe side for now. It's still far away from making the US for now. Unless you think it will collide with Jose? Lol

[caneman]

Really need to wait for NOAA data at 5. Looks like one on East coast and one on West coast so for now, up the spine seems reasonable

[rockyman]

From the 11pm discussion:

Some of the dynamical
models have shifted northward a bit from the previous cycle, with
the normally reliable GFS looking like a northeast outlier. The
official track forecast leans toward the ECMWF solution. Users are
reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the
longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and
225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

[txwatcher91]

How do you explain the 18Z GFS ensemble mean that is significantly west of the OP run? When the ensembles don't agree with the op run that is usually a clue that there is something funky. Go through the GFS ensembles since 12z this morning..they have all be west of the op run. The NHC doesn't base their forecast off one model..they have other models available to them that are not available to the public.

Ensemble means are great tools outside 120 hours but OP runs are a little better inside that mark, imo. The Euro was way west of its ensemble mean, as well, so by the same reasoning it should be discounted Yes the ensembles are west of the OP for the GFS but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s right, or wrong. I’ve seen many of these storms over the years that are forecast to make a hard right turn and usually it occurs faster and sooner than anticipated. Also, I explained why the OP run has added weight since the NAM synoptic setup concurs with the GFS and the 18z HWRF also made a significant north shift through most of its run to match that also. There is plenty of time for further adjustments but the east of Florida track is what I’ve thought would happen all along and I’m sticking with it, along with my Floyd 99 analog.

Not buying it. My understanding has always been to go with the ensembles. Further, 48 hours out on the NAM isn't far enough out. I'll go with up the spine of Florida. The Euro UKMET and TVCN had been most accurate a couple days ago but the UKIE seems to have gone wonky. So a split between Euro And TVCN seems reasonable.

Like I said, different people have different methods of forecasting. Sometimes the “best” models don’t always do the best with certain setups. Knowing how to use the tools we have, and which ones to use for different synoptic setups, is an extremely important aspect of forecasting. Euro has been pretty inconsistent with which side of Florida to take Irma, I expect tonight it will trend east.

[Vdogg]

Good view of the trof https://atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loo ... nhanced+24

Looking at that loop, I just don't see this hitting Cuba. It's gaining too much latitude. The NHC official says the storm is moving west, but by their own recon it's been moving WNW for hours now. I just don't get it.

They wanna be on the safe side for now. It's still far away from making the US for now. Unless you think it will collide with Jose? Lol

You laugh, but 2 weeks ago a storm with 50 inches of rain was crazy. 2 days ago everyone and their Grandma thought the GFS bombing this out to a high Cat 5 was crazy. Too many variables up in the air. Was the trough modeled correctly? Could Jose get big and close enough to effect this? Who knows. What I do know is there is still a stunning spread in the model consensus past 3 days.

[invest man]

Just saw the 11pm advisory's. Look at all 3 tropical systems. Jose looks to start moving NW Thursday night at the same time the depression in the BOC is moving East. Question would this be from hp moving the depression and the ridge breaking down for Jose? If so Thursday night thru Friday morning might be the time frame for GFS to break ranks with other models since NHC forecast seems to go more westerly. Just a thought. I also realize that they said the GFS is an outlier! IM

[caneman]

Ensemble means are great tools outside 120 hours but OP runs are a little better inside that mark, imo. The Euro was way west of its ensemble mean, as well, so by the same reasoning it should be discounted Yes the ensembles are west of the OP for the GFS but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s right, or wrong. I’ve seen many of these storms over the years that are forecast to make a hard right turn and usually it occurs faster and sooner than anticipated. Also, I explained why the OP run has added weight since the NAM synoptic setup concurs with the GFS and the 18z HWRF also made a significant north shift through most of its run to match that also. There is plenty of time for further adjustments but the east of Florida track is what I’ve thought would happen all along and I’m sticking with it, along with my Floyd 99 analog.

Not buying it. My understanding has always been to go with the ensembles. Further, 48 hours out on the NAM isn't far enough out. I'll go with up the spine of Florida. The Euro UKMET and TVCN had been most accurate a couple days ago but the UKIE seems to have gone wonky. So a split between Euro And TVCN seems reasonable.

Like I said, different people have different methods of forecasting. Sometimes the “best” models don’t always do the best with certain setups. Knowing how to use the tools we have, and which ones to use for different synoptic setups, is an extremely important aspect of forecasting. Euro has been pretty inconsistent with which side of Florida to take Irma, I expect tonight it will trend east.

Read.the disco post at 11. Rockyman posted above. The NHC not putting much weight into GFS. Further, model verification actually shows Euro, NHC and UKMET being most accurate as of now. That too is posted above

[Frank P]

Just saw the 11pm advisory's. Look at all 3 tropical systems. Jose looks to start moving NW Thursday night at the same time the depression in the BOC is moving East. Question would this be from hp moving the depression and the ridge breaking down for Jose? If so Thursday night thru Friday morning might be the time frame for GFS to break ranks with other models since NHC forecast seems to go more westerly. Just a thought. I also realize that they said the GFS is an outlier! IM

the depression in the GOM is not expected move east but probably less that 100 miles or so, and never gets past 95w before it turns south to mexico.. can't see it having any effect and if it did would be minimal at best...

[AutoPenalti]

From the 11pm discussion:

Some of the dynamical
models have shifted northward a bit from the previous cycle, with
the normally reliable GFS looking like a northeast outlier. The
official track forecast leans toward the ECMWF solution. Users are
reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the
longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and
225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

Looks like the NHC is still favoring the Euro, they are not buying the more Northeastern solution.

Anyone have some insight about the trough with the Euro vs GFS right now?

[txwatcher91]

Not buying it. My understanding has always been to go with the ensembles. Further, 48 hours out on the NAM isn't far enough out. I'll go with up the spine of Florida. The Euro UKMET and TVCN had been most accurate a couple days ago but the UKIE seems to have gone wonky. So a split between Euro And TVCN seems reasonable.

Like I said, different people have different methods of forecasting. Sometimes the “best” models don’t always do the best with certain setups. Knowing how to use the tools we have, and which ones to use for different synoptic setups, is an extremely important aspect of forecasting. Euro has been pretty inconsistent with which side of Florida to take Irma, I expect tonight it will trend east.

Read.the disco post at 11. Rockyman posted above. The NHC not putting much weight into GFS. Further, model verification actually shows Euro, NHC and UKMET being most accurate as of now. That too is posted above

I saw it. They’re waiting like usual for the 00z runs with the new data, that’s completely normal for the NHC. They never jump on a band wagon early and there’s no reason for a significant track adjustment until after they see the 00z suite.

[invest man]

Just saw the 11pm advisory's. Look at all 3 tropical systems. Jose looks to start moving NW Thursday night at the same time the depression in the BOC is moving East. Question would this be from hp moving the depression and the ridge breaking down for Jose? If so Thursday night thru Friday morning might be the time frame for GFS to break ranks with other models since NHC forecast seems to go more westerly. Just a thought. I also realize that they said the GFS is an outlier! IM

the depression in the GOM is not expected move east but probably less that 100 miles or so, and never gets past 95w before it turns south to mexico.. can't see it having any effect and if it did would be minimal at best...

I agree my thought was hp moving east toward Florida might help kick the Irma east or help put pressure on the trough to nudge it a little east.

[NFLnut]

There are many, many model tracks that would be bad for Florida and scare me. #1 Worst is the I-95 track.

The HWRF track straight up the spine of Florida might be the best of the worst options if hitting Florida is unavoidable. It would concentrate the maximum winds in the least populated areas (Everglades and agricultural counties) but would still be bad. Both Southwest and Southeast Florida would probably get Cat 2/3 winds and there would be major problems up in the Orlando area.

Yeah, no. I'm going to vote against the HWRF for exactly the last part of the last sentence of your post. I'm hoping the 18z GFS continues the trend.

[caneman]

Like I said, different people have different methods of forecasting. Sometimes the “best” models don’t always do the best with certain setups. Knowing how to use the tools we have, and which ones to use for different synoptic setups, is an extremely important aspect of forecasting. Euro has been pretty inconsistent with which side of Florida to take Irma, I expect tonight it will trend east.

Read.the disco post at 11. Rockyman posted above. The NHC not putting much weight into GFS. Further, model verification actually shows Euro, NHC and UKMET being most accurate as of now. That too is posted above

I saw it. They’re waiting like usual for the 00z runs with the new data, that’s completely normal for the NHC. They never jump on a band wagon early and there’s no reason for a significant track adjustment until after they see the 00z suite.

The UKMET also trended west and on the east coast of Florida. We'll see.

[NFLnut]

I saw it. They’re waiting like usual for the 00z runs with the new data, that’s completely normal for the NHC. They never jump on a band wagon early and there’s no reason for a significant track adjustment until after they see the 00z suite.

Especially when they still have the luxury of keeping those eastern swings out of their forecast because they're still in the 4-5 day cone. Sometime tomorrow, they will no longer have that luxury.

[Ken711]

Read.the disco post at 11. Rockyman posted above. The NHC not putting much weight into GFS. Further, model verification actually shows Euro, NHC and UKMET being most accurate as of now. That too is posted above

I saw it. They’re waiting like usual for the 00z runs with the new data, that’s completely normal for the NHC. They never jump on a band wagon early and there’s no reason for a significant track adjustment until after they see the 00z suite.

The UKMET also trended west and on the east coast of Florida. We'll see.

You mean the UKMET trended east?

[SFLcane]

Repost...

 https://twitter.com/Wxmanms1/status/905251194360254465

[Blown Away]

I noticed the 18z GFS 6hr position is @60.2 and the 11pm position is 61.1, almost a full degree E...

[Ken711]

I noticed the 18z GFS 6hr position is @60.2 and the 11pm position is 61.1, almost a full degree E...

Slower moving west?

[cdavis6287]

Here in Daytona the eastern shift is more than welcomed. I get multiple shifts are common this far out and big storms are hard to predict but why does it seem people seem upset the storm may recurve??? No power, destruction = not fun. I pray this thing recurves OTS. Either way Florida will get impacts from such a large storm. This thing could/ will be catostrophic wherever it comes close to.

[Vdogg]

I noticed the 18z GFS 6hr position is @60.2 and the 11pm position is 61.1, almost a full degree E...

Meaning GFS solution is too fast?