ATL: IRMA - Models

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/905252251672997892

[NFLnut]

Don't make me leave the group. (Probably) Stupid question: The https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/ states "The ECMWF Is Delayed ~12hr." This totally confuses me because I know that a lot of people here say they're going to stay up til 1:30 - 2:00 am each night to catch the newest ECMWF output. So, are we actually waiting for the 12z from the day before?!

[RL3AO]

I noticed the 18z GFS 6hr position is @60.2 and the 11pm position is 61.1, almost a full degree E...

1) The 6 hr position was more like 60.5W
2) 11pm is 3z, not 0z.

The GFS is not off a degree in 6 hours.

[Blown Away]

I noticed the 18z GFS 6hr position is @60.2 and the 11pm position is 61.1, almost a full degree E...

Meaning GFS solution is too fast?

Meaning Irma @1degree farther W now than the 18z GFS....

[meriland29]

GFS running..

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Looks like the GFS 0Z has commenced:


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... s=0&ypos=0

[Vdogg]

I noticed the 18z GFS 6hr position is @60.2 and the 11pm position is 61.1, almost a full degree E...

Meaning GFS solution is too fast?

Meaning Irma @1degree farther W now than the 18z GFS....

Gotcha, so it's too slow. What effect should this have on the path?

[meriland29]

hr18

[RL3AO]

The GFS is coming in. One liners and incorrect posts will be deleted.

[meriland29]

00z has her a a bit south than 18z at the same time (hr 18)

[RL3AO]

Already a little south of 18z.

[meriland29]

Hr 30, still on the trend NW, but south of 18z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_6.png

[MWatkins]

The GFS is coming in. One liners and incorrect posts will be deleted.

OK (end of post)

Just kidding. Little more ridge from init out to 18 hours, already noticeably, although slightly, south of the 18Z. I hope we're not getting into one of those cycles where the 06/18Z GFS runs show a significant change only to auto-correct on the 0/12Z cycles.

MW

[RL3AO]

A little south of 18z. A little north of 12z.

[meriland29]

Hr 36 has her in the same position as 18z

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_7.png

[txwatcher91]

At hour 36 the energy over the Midwest is a bit stronger. This is key to watch for when the N turn occurs. Overall track very similar but maybe a hair south.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Why does the GFS raise pressure from 913 to 943 in 6 hours?

[meriland29]

Why does the GFS raise pressure from 913 to 943 in 6 hours?

You aren't looking at the high res

[Joe Snow]

Why does the GFS raise pressure from 913 to 943 in 6 hours?

You aren't looking at the high res

Link?

[Vdogg]

Well, if the GFS were to verify it would seem that we would need to see more north of west track in fairly short order (12-24hrs) instead of the more WNW track the other models stick to.