ATL: FOUR - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Intensity increasing on MIMIC-TPW

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

Any drop in MSLP would likely pull in the low-level moisture from the Carib.

[Nimbus]

ASCAT is showing 35 knot winds north of the wave apex and almost static wind conditions to the south. There are also 25 knot winds over a fairly broad area to the north and the lowest surface pressure I've seen is 1016 near the peak winds.

Some of the earliest models suggested the light shear from the ULL near -60W along with the higher moisture environment west of -50 was going to be the catalyst for a system genesis.

If you had just declared a tropical system as dead and stated you were no longer going to issue notices wouldn't you at least wait for a recorded pressure drop before jumping on the bandwagon again?

[boca]

It looks like 94L is stationary and it held its own last night.It looks like the ULL is is pulling 94L into its circulation. I also see a circulation moving WNW away from 94L.

[tailgater]

Any sort of center is now well west of the large convective blob/MCV. We'll see if it can create any convection on its own. I think we will be still watching it closely until at least Wednesday.

[gatorcane]

Actually looks pretty decent and conditions should be improving for development by tomorrow.

[GCANE]

Ventilation setup looks really good if this starts cranking.
ULL to its NE for a poleward outflow channel.
TUTT in the mid Carib, to its SW, for an equatorward outflow channel.
Not often both channels get in position like this in the Atlantic.

[tropicwatch]

There is still some type of circulation with the convection to its east. It appears that some of the building convection to its southeast is moving with the circulation flow.

[NDG]

There is still some type of circulation with the convection to its east. It appears that some of the building convection to its southeast is moving with the circulation flow.

http://tropicwatch.info/04L07020171230.gif

Surface trough axis is now west of the deep convection that developed last night, clearly seen on this vis loop this morning, circulation near the deep convection is in the mid levels that should die out later today along with the deep convection.
Now we just have to wait for its remnant trough to get to the Bahamas where the UL environment is more friendly for possible re-development, if at all.

[NDG]

Closer look of last night's Euro run, development or no development a very wet end of the week for FL.

[northjaxpro]

It's amazing how many storms are predicted to hit Jacksonville. Yet, it rarely gets hit.

Perhaps, but last year alone Colin & Hermine moved through the area, Julia skirted the coast, and Matthew was thankfully a near miss.

Actually, Julia's COC traversed through downtown Jax and then literally right over my location here in North Jax. My weather station recorded a peak wind gust to 56 mph and pressure reading of 1007.8 mb when the center passed through.

Also, do not forget Beryl's direct landfall here in Jax in 2012. So, we have been impacted by tropical cyclones, especially in the last 5 years. Fortunately, they have not been very intense cyclones. Matthew was too close for comfort obviously last October.

Also, I listed all the tropical cyclones to either directly or indirectly impact the Jax area, going back to Fay in 2008 in my siggie. It is always seen in my posts on the forum.

[SouthDadeFish]

There is no closed surface circulation. As others have said, the wave axis is ahead of the disorganized convection. If you forgot what a real TC looks like, take a peep at Eugene in the EPAC

[GCANE]

Looks like more definition for a surface low with an apparent SW wind.
UL winds still strong over it.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[Aric Dunn]

I see after sleeping for a long time.. its still kicking.. the circ has lost its definition from yesterday but convection is still firing and there is still clearly a well defined sharp wave axis. wouldn't take much to get going. now that the dry air and sal wont be and issue lets see what happens.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like more definition for a surface low with an apparent SW wind.
UL winds still strong over it.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

yeah definitely rotation there doubt its at the surface but looks like convergence is pretty decent convection is building north along the SE inflow/eastern wave axis. it make overspread the "center" and we will get another large burst. the shear as you said will be dropping off very soon as well. needs to be watched especially now that the euro likes it a little more

[Nimbus]

The ULL to the north went stationary and the associated shear is enhancing convection.
Once this moves into the calm area a little further west it may well look like an unimpressive wave till it approaches the Bahamas.

[Aric Dunn]

The ULL to the north went stationary and the associated shear is enhancing convection.
Once this moves into the calm area a little further west it may well look like an unimpressive wave till it approaches the Bahamas.

its only 36 hours ish to the eastern bahamas.

[Nimbus]

The ULL to the north went stationary and the associated shear is enhancing convection.
Once this moves into the calm area a little further west it may well look like an unimpressive wave till it approaches the Bahamas.

its only 36 hours ish to the eastern bahamas.

So the "end of season" posts won't show up till tomorrow afternoon?

[Aric Dunn]

The ULL to the north went stationary and the associated shear is enhancing convection.
Once this moves into the calm area a little further west it may well look like an unimpressive wave till it approaches the Bahamas.

its only 36 hours ish to the eastern bahamas.

So the "end of season" posts won't show up till tomorrow afternoon?

haha possibly.. lol

[boca]

Do you think the remnants will head towards Florida?

[Aric Dunn]

Do you think the remnants will head towards Florida?

thats what it looks like.